Overnight US stocks | "Black Friday" sweeps across risk assets, Nasdaq posts worst single-day performance since June; Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) market cap overtakes NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) to reclaim the global top spot.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 572.25 points, or 1.09%, to 51,770.31; the S&P 500 dropped 140.30 points, or 1.82%, to 7,580.09; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 747.73 points, or 2.86%, to 25,437.00.
Friday saw the three major indices plunge, with the Nasdaq posting its worst single-day performance since June, pulling back about 8% from its recent high. The chip sector came under broad pressure, with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) falling over 4%. According to three senior Gulf state officials, the Trump administration has notified Gulf allies to prepare for a possible new round of short, sharp military strikes on November 4 (the day after the US midterm elections). Trump hopes a new round of strikes will further destroy Iran's nuclear program or force Iran into a deal. The US has not struck Iran again since September 1 and is currently pressuring Tehran through a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Gulf officials said they cannot rule out some Gulf states opposing the use of US bases on their territory for strikes.
US StocksAt the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 572.25 points, or 1.09%, to 51,770.31; the S&P 500 fell 140.30 points, or 1.82%, to 7,580.09; the Nasdaq Composite fell 747.73 points, or 2.86%, to 25,437.00. Intel Corporation (INTC.US) fell 28.58%, SanDisk (SNDK.US) fell 14.1%, Qualcomm (QCOM.US) fell 11.12%, AMD (AMD.US) fell 10.88%, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) fell 5.3%, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) fell 4.22%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) fell 1.41%, and Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) fell 1.4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.28%, and Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) fell 1.54%.
European StocksGermany's DAX30 fell 221.45 points, or 0.85%, to 25,818.23; the UK's FTSE 100 rose 4.99 points, or 0.05%, to 10,727.06; France's CAC40 fell 0.58 points, or 0.01%, to 7,969.42; the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 76.22 points, or 1.23%, to 6,130.85; Spain's IBEX35 fell 206.14 points, or 1.09%, to 18,651.46; Italy's FTSE MIB fell 509.86 points, or 1.02%, to 49,492.50.
ForexThe US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.16% on the day and closed at 101.878 in late foreign exchange trading. As of late New York forex trading, 1 euro traded at 1.1167 dollars, up from 1.1162 the previous trading day; 1 pound traded at 1.3394 dollars, up from 1.3361 the previous trading day. 1 dollar traded at 157.37 yen, down from 157.96 yen the previous trading day; 1 dollar traded at 0.8236 Swiss francs, down from 0.8264 Swiss francs the previous trading day; 1 dollar traded at 1.3956 Canadian dollars, down from 1.3986 Canadian dollars the previous trading day; 1 dollar traded at 9.8170 Swedish kronor, down from 9.8608 Swedish kronor the previous trading day.
CryptocurrenciesBitcoin fell below the 77,000 dollar mark, at 76,979 dollars as of press time; Ethereum was at 2,236 dollars.
Precious MetalsSpot gold fell 3.61% to 3,875.98 dollars; spot silver fell 5.79% to 49.137 dollars per ounce.
Crude OilDecember-delivery light crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.12 dollars to settle at 104.12 dollars per barrel, a gain of 2.08%; December-delivery London Brent crude futures rose 2.76 dollars to settle at 117.64 dollars per barrel, a gain of 2.4%.
Macro News
Concerns over AI investment returns are heating up, with the Nasdaq 100 facing its third technical correction this year. The Nasdaq 100 index fell as much as 4.5% intraday on Friday, pulling back more than 10% from its recent high and facing its third technical correction this year. The index fell about 3% for the week, as disappointing earnings from Alphabet Inc. Class C parent Alphabet, Amazon.com, Inc., Intel Corporation and ServiceNow triggered a tech selloff. The market has begun to reassess the return on AI investment, and rising financing needs among tech companies have also exacerbated sector volatility. Market strategists noted that investors no longer assume AI investment will inevitably deliver rich returns, but are starting to focus on return on capital and whether the principal can be recovered. The last time US stocks saw three or more 10% swings within a year was in 2022.
Fed's Logan: The Fed needs at least two more rate hikes, totaling 50 basis points. Dallas Fed President Logan said Friday that under the current economic outlook, the Fed needs at least two more 25-basis-point rate hikes, raising the policy rate by a cumulative 50 basis points, and then pausing to assess economic and financial conditions to decide the next step. Logan participated in the Fed's 10-2 vote this week, supporting keeping the federal funds rate target range at 3.75%-4.00%. Logan believes inflation still needs to be further suppressed, and the policy rate should be raised by at least another 50 basis points to sufficiently restrict the economy and push inflation back to the 2% target. She noted that the outlook for tech investment and the political situation surrounding GEO Group Inc are causing financial market volatility, and in this environment, gradual policy adjustments help households, businesses and market participants adapt to higher rates and reduce the risk of an unnecessarily sharp deterioration in economic activity. Logan also stressed that the Fed should clearly communicate its policy goals, which differs from Fed Chair Warsh's view that such policy guidance should be provided only in crisis periods. She believes the current financial environment is still supporting economic growth, and the rise in long-term borrowing costs mainly reflects investors' expectations of higher rates rather than an independent drag on the economy. Even if the Fed skips a meeting without hiking, it would not change the ultimate policy goal; as long as the market understands the Fed's policy plan, the specific timing of hikes has limited impact on the long-term rates borrowers face.
Fed's Musalem: Another rate hike will likely be necessary soon. St. Louis Fed President Musalem, speaking on the US economy and monetary policy ahead of the Shadow Open Market Committee meeting, said: "I believe further tightening of monetary policy is necessary, and action will likely be needed soon." Musalem believes US inflation remains too high, and if the Fed does not raise rates further, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. At the same time, the overall US economy and job market remain strong, and the overall financial environment remains accommodative.
Company News
Apple Inc.'s market cap overtakes NVIDIA Corporation to reclaim the global top spot, highlighting the resilience of relatively steady investments. Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) closed Friday with a market cap of 5.03 trillion dollars, surpassing NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA.US) 4.93 trillion dollars to become the world's most valuable listed company. This is the first time Apple Inc. has retaken the lead over NVIDIA Corporation since late July. Apple Inc. shares fell 1.2% that day, while NVIDIA Corporation fell 4.2%. Recently, earnings from Intel Corporation (INTC.US) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) have intensified market concerns about the returns on massive AI capital spending, and Alphabet (GOOG.US) and Meta Platforms (META.US) had also been sold off earlier. By contrast, Apple Inc.'s relatively restrained infrastructure investment and strong free cash flow have given it relative resilience amid the tech stock correction. Apple Inc. shares are up 27% this year, while NVIDIA Corporation has fallen more than 10% over the past month.
Alphabet Inc. Class C parent Alphabet plans to participate in the US 185 billion dollar "Golden Dome" program. According to people familiar with the matter, Alphabet Inc. Class C parent Alphabet (GOOG.US) is in talks with the Pentagon to participate in Trump's 185 billion dollar "Golden Dome" missile defense program, focusing on data security, storage, networking and cybersecurity capabilities to ensure that data transmission for military command-and-control software is less vulnerable to attack. The discussions are still at an early stage, and Aalyria, a networking company under Alphabet Inc. Class C, is also involved in preparations for a related consortium. The Pentagon said no final decision has been made on forming a new consortium or on participating companies.
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