Central China: Industry market performance weak; solar power further advances anti-involution initiative.
Maintain the "Market Perform" industry investment rating, and focus on sectors with turnaround potential from trough difficulties (such as solar power) and opportunities brought by demand-side new quality productive forces.
Central China released a research report stating that the price-to-book ratio (LF) of the Electrical Equipment Index (CITIC) is 2.79x, at the 34.25th percentile. The price-to-book ratio (LF) of the Power Supply Equipment Index (CITIC) is 1.84x, at the 20.08th percentile. Maintain the "Market Perform" industry investment rating, with attention to opportunities from trough-driven turnaround sectors (such as solar power) and demand-side new quality productive forces.
Central China's main views are as follows:
The power equipment and new energy industry underperformed other industries in September
In September, the power equipment and new energy industry ranked second to last among first-tier industries, only above the non-ferrous metals industry. Among the four sub-sectors of the electrical equipment segment, only the motor segment rose 2.12%, while in the power supply equipment segment, wind power was the highlight, rising 5.82% against the trend. Tongwei, GCL and other leading solar companies held a closed-door anti-involution meeting in Hangzhou.
Tongwei, GCL and other leading domestic solar companies held a closed-door meeting in Hangzhou to further advance the industry's anti-involution initiative
The meeting further formed an implementation plan for capacity restrictions, proposing to use market-based adjustment mechanisms to encourage enterprises to independently coordinate and proactively suppress their own capacity based on total market demand, and to set clear price floors in the polysilicon and module segments. A number of leading polysilicon enterprises agreed that the average cost of polysilicon including tax and the corresponding sales price shall not be lower than RMB43,000 per tonne.
In September, total electricity consumption was 899.7 billion kWh, up 1.2%, with electricity consumption in the charging and battery-swapping service industry and internet data service industry maintaining rapid growth
In September, China's electricity generation by industrial enterprises above designated size was 829.36 billion kWh, down 1.2%. As of the end of September, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 4.132 billion kW, up 11.2%. The growth was mainly contributed by wind power and CECEP Solar Energy.
China's exports of major electrical equipment maintained good momentum in September 2026, with an accelerating trend
In September, transformer export value was US$1.149 billion, up 23.74%. Wire and cable export value was US$4.254 billion, up 59.03%. High-voltage switch and control device export value and low-voltage switch and control device export value were US$759 million and US$4.584 billion, up 56.49% and 43.97% respectively; copper and aluminum prices continued to maintain an upward trend.
In September, the monthly average price of polysilicon GFEX futures was RMB36,993 per tonne, down 29.8%, with prices still hovering at a relatively low level within the year
The monthly average prices of N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*183.75mm) and N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210mm) were RMB1.01 per piece and RMB1.15 per piece, down 22.9% and 30.72% respectively; the monthly average prices of TOPCON cells (182mm) (210mm) were RMB0.3 per watt and RMB0.29 per watt respectively, down 3.23% and 3.33% year-on-year. The monthly average price of N-type TOPCON double-glass modules (182mm) was RMB0.72 per watt, up 4.35%.
Risk warnings: decline in power equipment demand, fluctuations in export demand; overcapacity, greater destocking pressure; weak implementation of anti-involution policies, poor corporate profitability; rising raw material costs; international trade frictions and tariff barriers.
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