U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 last week, below expectations, as labor market resilience persists.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday (October 29) that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week ended October 24 were 194,000, below market expectations of 198,000200,000; the prior week's figure was revised slightly upward from 194,000 to 195,000, a week-over-week decrease of 1,000. For the week ended October 17, the four-week moving average of initial claims was 196,750, remaining in historically low territory and down 1,250 from the prior week's revised average; the prior week's average was revised up by 250 from 197,750 to 198,000. Fed Chair Warsh said at a press conference following the October 28 policy meeting that measured by the four-week average, initial jobless claims "continue to be at multi-decade lows," and described the employment situation as "quite favorable." The data indicate that although previously released September nonfarm payrolls showed a gain of only 29,000clearly weakcorporate layoffs have not risen in tandem, with the labor market exhibiting the resilient characteristic of "low hiring, low layoffs." This employment data, together with the third-quarter GDP, September core PCE price index and personal spending released the same day, collectively form the latest basis for the Fed's assessment of the economy and inflation. On policy, the Fed's October 28 policy meeting voted 10-2 to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.75%4.00%, with two officials advocating an immediate 25-basis-point rate hike. This was the first "hold" following the 25-basis-point hike on September 16 (the first hike since July 2023). Warsh emphasized at the press conference that inflation "remains too high," that energy and related prices have risen again in recent weeks, and that the Fed needs to prevent localized price increases from spreading to the broader economy. Current policy remains a "pause" within a tightening bias, rather than a shift toward easing.