Energy bills become the top election issue in the midterms: oil prices under Trump exceed Biden's for the first time, and deep-red states may turn into swing states.

Notice that the average gasoline price paid by Americans during President Donald Trump's term has now exceeded the average level during the Biden administration, highlighting the political pressure facing Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Trump had promised to bring gasoline prices below $2 per gallon, but according to AAA data, over nearly two years of his administration, the average retail price of the fuel has been $3.472 per gallon. According to AAA's daily data released on Monday, this exceeds the average level of $3.471 during former President Joe Biden's term by less than 1 cent. Gasoline prices surged this year after the United States and Israel went to war with Iran, disrupting oil flows and further squeezing global refining capacity. Over the past eight months, the national average U.S. gasoline price has risen 43%, while diesel prices have soared nearly 70% and hit a record high. The issue has become a focal point for Trump's Republican Party in the midterm elections, as voters already burdened by inflation are being further weighed down by high energy prices. According to AAA data, Americans have never paid this much for fuel this late in a year, with the national average at $4.286 per gallon as of Sunday. Biden still holds the record for the highest single-day national gasoline price$5.02 per gallon in June 2022, months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. U.S. gasoline prices are now higher under Trump than under Biden Susan Bell, senior vice president of downstream operations at Rystad Energy, said the global market is short about 400,000 barrels per day of gasoline that would otherwise be exported from the Middle East. In the weeks before the midterm elections, diesel costs have been a focus of the Trump administration, with diesel prices hitting a record high of $6.53 per gallon last month. The average diesel price during Trump's term is already about 6% higher than during Biden's. Fuel prices have become a prime target for critics of the Trump administration, because their rapid rise this year has worsened the cost-of-living crisis that voters regard as their top concern. It also represents a broken promise by Trumphe repeatedly attacked Biden over high gasoline prices during the 2024 presidential campaign. Trump has repeatedly said that gasoline and diesel prices will fall once the war with Iran ends, but there is no sign of the conflict easing. At a rally this weekend, Trump praised U.S. oil companies for bringing "hundreds of billions of dollars" in gains to the country. He said: "President Trump talks big about how much money they're making while people are suffering at the gas pumpthat's going to be a headline. I don't care. I'm going to say it anywaywe're making a fortune." High energy costs are threatening to turn deep-red parts of the United States into swing states. The nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report considers Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaskastates Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024to now be seen as competitive races in Senate elections. According to James West, managing director at Melius Research LLC, households in all of those states except Texas spend a higher share of their income on energy than the U.S. average. Energy issue on the ballot Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and a former staff economist who worked on gasoline policy at the U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers, said voters are likely to compare current gasoline prices with the target Trump promisedpre-pandemic prices consistently below $3 per gallon. Cummings said: "In effect, what they're comparing is a $1.50 per gallon difference." The Trump administration has taken steps to mitigate the fuel supply disruptions caused by the Iran war, including controversial measures such as a diesel deal with Russia. But experts say the deal is too small to meaningfully move oil prices before the November midterm elections. Last Thursday, the administration also invoked wartime powers to increase U.S. fuel production, and the Energy Department announced on Friday that it had allocated $150 million for refinery investments. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO.US), one of the largest U.S. refiners, said last week that Trump's latest efforts to lower fuel prices have had little effect. Chief Operating Officer Gary Simmons said Russian diesel cargoes are not "a meaningful volume." Valero CEO Lane Riggs noted that Trump's plan to boost domestic production will not take effect quickly. Riggs said: "Almost all of the refineries that have been shut down will need time to restart, so they can hardly ease the immediate situation. The idea that you can walk into these refineries, flip a switch and have them running again does not match reality."