MReferral: September MReferral Mortgage Rate Index stands at 3.18%, with room for further decline expected within the year

The latest data from the mReferral Mortgage Brokerage Services Referral Research Department shows that the September 2026 mReferral Mortgage Brokerage Services Mortgage Rate Index (MMI), which reflects the actual mortgage rate level generally available to new mortgage customers, came in at 3.18%, up slightly by 6 basis points month-on-month. Cao Deming, Chief Vice President of mReferral Mortgage Brokerage Services, said that in September about 25% of customers chose fixed-rate mortgage plans from major banks, with the share edging down slightly month-on-month, and that starting this month, fixed rates for second-hand and refinancing mortgages were raised from 2.73% to 2.93%, so the MMI also rebounded slightly. Cao Deming expects more customers to choose fixed-rate mortgage plans or "P-then-H" plans. Today's one-month HIBOR stands at 2.75%, and Cao Deming expects that within the year, the effective mortgage rate on newly originated H mortgages will continue to stay at the capped level of 3.25%. Currently, two major banks are extending their fixed-rate mortgage plans through the end of this year; although the rate has been raised from 2.73% to 2.93%, it is still 32 basis points lower than the H mortgage cap. In addition, a major bank earlier launched a "special priority P-then-H" mortgage plan for the first 2 or 3 years, with an annual rate of "P-2.32%", meaning an effective mortgage rate of 2.68%, delivering a more significant interest-saving effect. He said that with rates still having room to rise in the future and interbank rates having no room for a significant near-term decline, more customers are expected to choose fixed-rate mortgage plans or P-then-H plans to immediately save more on interest expenses, and the MMI is expected to still have room to decline within the year. Cao Deming continued that Hong Kong currently has no urgency to raise the prime rate. Although the latest US September CPI came in at 3.7%, above market expectations, the Federal Reserve already made one defensive rate hike last month, and it is expected that the Fed will hold steady at this week's policy meeting and prefer to first observe inflation and economic data trends before making the next decision. If the Fed chooses to hold steady, and with interbank rates temporarily maintained below 3%, Hong Kong banks, under the condition that funding cost pressure has not increased significantly, are believed to have no urgency for now to raise the prime rate (P).