Cui Dongshu: In September, China's total output of power and other batteries reached 237GWh, a year-on-year increase of 57%.

Cui Dongshu of the China Passenger Car Association wrote that in September, China's total output of power and other batteries reached 237GWh, a year-on-year increase of 57%; from January to September, China's total output of power and other batteries reached 1,833GWh, a year-on-year increase of 63%. This year, battery growth has gradually declined from above 60%. Due to sluggish demand for power batteries and adjustments to export tax rebates, battery demand has gradually slowed. In September 2026, lithium battery installations reached 87GWh, a year-on-year increase of 15%. From January to September 2026, lithium battery installations reached 576GWh, a year-on-year increase of 17%. In 2025, the proportion of installed vehicles in power battery output fell to 44%. In September 2026, the proportion of installed vehicles in power battery output was 37%, of which the installation rate for ternary batteries was 35% and for lithium iron phosphate batteries was 37%. In September 2026, domestic installations of lithium-battery vehicles reached 1.26 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, of which pure electric passenger vehicles were 810,000 units, down 6% year-on-year; plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were 350,000 units, down 29% year-on-year; pure electric trucks were 82,000 units, up 22%. Such production data show severe divergence. In the third quarter of 2026, models with battery energy density above 160 accounted for 9%, a clear rebound from 7% in the same period of 2025, mainly due to some recovery in high-end ternary demand. Products with energy density below 125 fell to 0% in 2026. The competitive landscape of battery companies has formed a pattern in which Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750) and BYD Company Limited (01211) are relatively strong. Contemporary Amperex Technology's share rose to 45.1% in July-September 2026. BYD Company Limited's domestic battery demand share rose from 15% in 2020 to 26.9% in 2023, and the shares of other battery companies have also shown clear divergence. The top two companies, CATL and BYD Company Limited, maintained a 63% share in 2026 from 72% in 2022, leaving other companies with about over 36% of the space. This year, CALB (03931), Sunwoda Electronic (300207.SZ), ZENERGY (03677) and others performed relatively strongly. 1. Analysis of overall production characteristics of power batteries In September, China's total output of power and other batteries reached 237GWh, a year-on-year increase of 57%; from January to September, China's total output of power and other batteries reached 1,833GWh, a year-on-year increase of 63%. This year, battery growth has gradually declined from above 60%. Due to sluggish demand for power batteries and adjustments to export tax rebates, battery demand has gradually slowed. At present, the proportion of installed vehicles in power battery output is continuously declining. In 2021, the production battery installation rate for power batteries reached 70%; in 2022 it was 54%; in 2023 it was 50%; in 2024 the proportion of installed vehicles in power battery output remained at 50%; in 2025 the proportion of installed vehicles in power battery output fell to 44%; in September 2026 the proportion of installed vehicles in power battery output was 37%, of which the installation rate for ternary batteries was 35% and for lithium iron phosphate batteries was 37%. This year, the prosperity of power battery installations has fluctuated. With the launch of truck subsidies and a decline in energy storage demand, the recent installation share has gradually increased. With the development of energy storage and other industries, especially the world energy crisis brought about by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, battery demand for energy storage and other industries has grown rapidly, causing the share of batteries used for vehicle installation to decline significantly. However, the market downturn at the beginning of the year led to a decline in the share. Both power batteries and energy storage batteries are subject to overproduction and relatively high inventory pressure. In 2021 and 2022, the growth rate of power batteries was lower than that of complete vehicles. In 2023 and 2024, power battery installations were relatively low, and battery output was flat with installation growth. In 2026, battery production is relatively high and installations started low. At the beginning of 2026, the installation rate fell to a recent low, and recovered well in September. 2. The ternary share of battery installations for domestic sales models based on certificates is relatively low Demand growth for power battery installations is extremely strong. In 2019, demand grew 10%; in 2020, power battery installations for domestic sales models were 64GWh, with demand growth of 2%; in 2021, power battery installations were 155GWh, with demand growth of 143%; in 2022, installations were 295GWh, with demand growth of 91%; in 2023, installations were 388GWh, with demand growth of 32%; in 2024, lithium battery installations were 548GWh, a year-on-year increase of 41%; in 2025, lithium battery installations were 770Wh, a year-on-year increase of 40%; in September 2026, lithium battery installations were 87GWh, a year-on-year increase of 15%; from January to September 2026, lithium battery installations were 576GWh, a year-on-year increase of 17%. 3. Growth in automotive battery demand is slowing Demand for passenger vehicle batteries has continued to grow strongly. In 2025, battery demand for pure electric passenger vehicles grew 29%, while battery demand for plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles grew 17%, maintaining strong growth. Battery demand for pure electric trucks also increased significantly, reaching 169%. From January to September 2026, battery installations grew 17%, with commercial vehicles growing strongly. In particular, pure electric trucks surged 41% in September, while battery usage for pure electric passenger vehicles grew only 10%. From the perspective of the share of battery installations, the demand structure for power batteries has been changing rapidly in recent years. In 2020, the structure was still pure electric passenger vehicles first, pure electric buses second, and pure electric special vehicles third, while plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were only in fourth place. By 2026, pure electric passenger vehicles still remained first, while plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles fell to third, pure electric trucks rose to second, plug-in hybrid special vehicles maintained fourth place, and pure electric buses fell to fifth. In recent years, the pure electric bus market has declined sharply, while pure electric special vehicles have maintained relatively rapid growth in battery usage. At present, battery usage for pure electric passenger vehicles and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles has fallen significantly, while battery usage for heavy trucks has increased greatly. The high subsidy advantage for heavy trucks brought by new energy subsidies has led to differentiated battery trends. 4. Vehicle certificate output Based on estimates of battery volumes from certificates, in 2025 domestic certificates for new energy vehicles reached 14.5 million units, a strong year-on-year increase of 24%, of which pure electric passenger vehicles were 8.6 million units, up 35% year-on-year; plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were 5.03 million units, up 7% year-on-year; pure electric special vehicles and trucks were 780,000 units. Such production data performed very strongly. In September 2026, domestic installations of lithium-battery vehicles reached 1.26 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, of which pure electric passenger vehicles were 810,000 units, down 6% year-on-year; plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were 350,000 units, down 29% year-on-year; pure electric trucks were 82,000 units, up 22%. Such production data show severe divergence. 5. Supporting battery companies are far from fully competitive In the past few years, the competitive landscape of the battery market has not changed significantly. In September 2026, the number of supporting battery companies reached 31, a low for the year. Due to differences in power battery prices, relatively obvious scale growth characteristics, and the development of demand from ShenZhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering and other energy storage sectors, battery companies have achieved strong growth in production and installation volumes. 6. Differentiation in battery capacity per vehicle across model types As battery prices fall, the driving range of electric vehicles continues to increase. At present, demand for high-end electric vehicles is very strong, similar to the upgrade from "laotoule" low-speed vehicles to small and micro cars, and policy pressure is relatively high, leading to obvious premiumization. In the second half of 2024, driven by policies such as trade-ins, the small-car market recovered and mini electric vehicles became popular, driving down installed battery volume. As the cost advantages of electric vehicles become evident, the structure of pure electric special vehicles has shifted toward heavy trucks, driving a surge in battery capacity per vehicle. From the perspective of supply chain issues, future vehicle manufacturers will become increasingly strong, and their control over battery companies and upstream industrial chains will further strengthen, while their control over downstream brand marketing capabilities will also further strengthen. Under the new energy system, the characteristic of "vehicle manufacturers as kings" will continue to manifest further. 7. High-energy-density batteries need to recover At present, the main battery energy density range for pure electric vehicles is between 125 and 160. In particular, in the third quarter of 2026, the share of batteries at 140 to 160 reached 51%, up 14 percentage points year-on-year. In the third quarter of 2026, models with battery energy density above 160 accounted for 9%, a clear rebound from 7% in the same period of 2025, mainly due to some recovery in high-end ternary demand. Products with energy density below 125 fell to 0% in 2026. 8. Battery company landscape The competitive landscape of battery companies has formed a pattern in which Contemporary Amperex Technology and BYD Company Limited are relatively strong. Contemporary Amperex Technology's share rose to 45.1% in July-September 2026. BYD Company Limited's domestic battery demand share rose from 15% in 2020 to 26.9% in 2023, and the shares of other battery companies have also shown clear divergence. Battery companies have shown a characteristic of slowing concentration among leading companies. The top two companies, CATL and BYD Company Limited, maintained a 63% share in 2026 from 72% in 2022, leaving other companies with about over 36% of the space. This year, CALB, Sunwoda Electronic, ZENERGY and others performed relatively strongly. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have obvious product differentiation advantages. BYD Company Limited remains relatively outstanding, but was in a domestic adjustment period at the beginning of this year; its export performance was strong but not included in the statistics. Eve Energy Co.,Ltd. and Gotion High-Tech performed relatively strongly. Sunwoda Electronic, REPT BATTERO, and Geely Yaoning improved significantly. As BYD Company Limited fully transitioned to lithium iron phosphate batteries, the ternary battery advantages of the top four, Contemporary Amperex Technology, SVOLT, Sunwoda Electronic, and LG, have become more obvious. Recently, Great Wall Motor's SVOLT Energy performed relatively well. LG New Energy's statistical performance was relatively low because Tesla's domestic sales share declined.