Playing the Election Game: The US, Israel, and Iran "Play a Big Game of Chess"

Title context: Playing the Election Game: The US, Israel, and Iran "Play a Big Game of Chess" As US and Israeli elections approach, whether military action against Iran will restart has once again become a focus, Middle East tensions are tightening, and the risk to Persian Gulf energy supplies is rising accordingly. According to Xinhua News Agency, Israel will hold parliamentary elections on October 27, and the United States will hold midterm elections on November 3. As the two elections draw nearer, the US, Israel, and Iran are all simultaneously sending signals of both toughness and restraint. According to reports, Iran has begun preparing for a new round of US airstrikes and is reportedly planning retaliation against multiple targets, including Israel and the UAE. The report, citing people familiar with the matter, said the period between the end of the US midterm elections and the seating of the new Congress in early January may be a higher-risk phase in the current conflict. At the same time, Brent crude oil futures have risen by more than 80% cumulatively this year, US gasoline prices have also climbed accordingly, and cost-of-living pressures are posing a challenge to the Republican Party's election prospects. Analysts believe that if hostilities resume, the situation could be more complex than before the previous ceasefire. Asl Aydntaba, a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution, said current signs indicate that hostilities may restart, accompanied by a new round of large-scale airstrikes, but the specific timing remains unclear. Ali Vaez, a Middle East expert at the International Crisis Group, noted that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu may view a war against Iran as a way to ease their respective domestic political pressures, but military action could also further damage both men's political prospects. Military deployments continue to advance, raising the risk of escalation Several recent military developments indicate that the United States is preserving room for possible further action. According to reports, the Trump administration has sent a third carrier strike group toward the Persian Gulf and deployed more than 10,000 sailors and Marines to expand the options available to US commanders. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth visited Israel this week without prior notice and met with Netanyahu, just days before Israel's election. According to reports, some US military bases in the Middle East that had previously been hit by Iranian retaliation have also adjusted their personnel deployments. According to Xinhua News Agency, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has recently taken a tough stance on the Iran issue, even claiming that he has ordered the Israeli military and intelligence agencies to overthrow the Iranian regime, and that if necessary Israel will act alone even without US support. Separately, Israeli media reported on the 21st that dozens of Israeli fighter jets and aerial refueling aircraft flew over Syrian and Iraqi airspace earlier this week and turned back after approaching the Iranian border. The move is believed to be possibly intended to provoke Iranian air defenses into firing, thereby providing a pretext for strikes on Iran. On the other hand, senior Israeli military officials have taken a cautious stance. Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Zamir said there is no need to strike Iran before the election. Israeli opposition leader Lapid also recently expressed opposition to attacking Iran and criticized Netanyahu for using the issue to seek electoral advantage. Some analysts noted that polls show Netanyahu's camp is currently trailing in support, and his tough rhetoric on Iran and even attempts to start a war are intended to boost his camp's election prospects. But if the United States does not use force against Iran, the Israeli military does not have the ability to sustain a large-scale war against Iran on its own. From the US side, Trump explicitly said on the 8th that he would not launch an attack on Iran before the midterm elections. But on the 18th he publicly supported Netanyahu's re-election, saying he hoped to stand with him against Iran. Trump also said at a campaign rally on the 23rd that he might launch another small-scale "Epic Fury" military operation against Iran. Analysts believe that Trump's approval rating plunged because starting hostilities with Iran drove up oil prices, and he is worried that reopening hostilities before the election would further push up oil prices and drag down his Republican Party's election prospects. But at the same time, he needs to express to conservatives his determination to resolve the Iran issue, so he makes seemingly contradictory statements on going to war with Iran. Iran steps up war preparations, risks in the Strait of Hormuz rise According to a report citing a person familiar with the thinking of Iran's decision-making circles, Iran is preparing for a possible new round of military conflict around the US midterm elections and is considering retaliation against multiple targets in the Middle East. The person also said the way out of the current deadlock lies in reaching an agreement that allows both sides to claim achievements. According to Xinhua News Agency, in the face of contradictory statements from the US and Israel, Iran has sent signals on two fronts. In response to US and Israeli threats to go to war again, Iranian Defense Minister Akhlaqi said on the 19th that Iran is preparing to welcome war. IRGC spokesman Mohbi said the same day that seven major submarine cables pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and the enemy should know this information. The remark is seen as hinting that Iran may destroy these cables if attacked. Iran also claimed to have sent an ultimatum to countries in the Middle East that if war between the US and Iran breaks out again, these countries must stop all support for the US. At the same time, shipping and maritime security officials said that attacks by Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, whether in frequency or severity, have increased compared with the early stage of the conflict, and the weapons used have expanded from attack drones to guided missiles. Although the US military has made some progress in escorting commercial ships, related shipping security risks have not been eliminated. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iran has tightened control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recently, oil tankers have successively been attacked or hit mines while trying to pass through the strait. The UK Maritime Trade Operations office said on the 23rd that its statistics show shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is about 70% lower than pre-conflict levels, and the maritime security threat level in the area remains "severe." Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported on the 23rd, citing a person familiar with the matter, that if the US military again supports oil smuggling through the strait with air power, Iran will respond "directly and more decisively." On the other hand, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in the UK's Financial Times on the 21st that if there is evidence that the US sincerely hopes to reach a fair and dignified solution and permanently end the conflict, Iran is willing to give diplomacy another chance. However, he also expressed distrust of the United States and said that if the US again chooses to use force, it will suffer a greater strategic failure. According to Xinhua News Agency, citing analysts, Iran is trying to push up oil prices by tightening control over the strait so as not to give Trump a chance to ease election pressure. Iran's tough statements are intended to deter the US and Israel from easily restarting hostilities; on that basis, it has also adopted a posture of willingness to negotiate, which both seizes the moral high ground and prevents Trump from shifting blame to Iran in the election campaign for the lack of progress in US-Iran talks. Energy supply risks intensify, rising oil prices add election pressure The risks facing Persian Gulf energy supplies have already been reflected in global energy markets. Brent crude oil futures have risen by more than 80% cumulatively this year, and US gasoline prices have also climbed accordingly, increasing cost-of-living pressures on consumers and adversely affecting the Republican Party's performance in the midterm elections. Bloomberg Economics analysts Dina Esfandiary, Ziad Daoud, and Becca Wasser noted in a report released on Thursday that the current Middle East situation has clear similarities with the situation before the US-Iran war broke out in February this year. The report argues that factors such as the approaching US and Israeli elections, severe disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's hardening stance have not reduced the risk of another escalation of conflict. Domestic public opinion is also putting pressure on the Trump administration. A Pew Research Center survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 shows that more than two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, and about half of respondents expect the hostilities to last more than a year. Diplomatic negotiations make limited progress, post-election situation remains uncertain At present, the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict remain unclear. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi wrote in the UK's Financial Times this week that if the United States shows a genuine willingness to seek a fair and dignified solution, Iran is willing to try the diplomatic path again. But he also pointed out that there is currently little reason to expect progress in negotiations. According to Xinhua News Agency, experts believe that the campaign needs of the two elections, especially the US midterm elections, have kept the US, Israel, and Iran in a state of "cold peace." The possibility of escalation in the Iran situation before the election is not high, but how it will develop after the election is difficult to predict. Separately, multiple US media outlets reported that the US and Israeli militaries have drawn up specific plans to strike Iran again after the US midterm elections, and the main uncertainty is whether Trump will approve them. Public opinion holds that after the election, as the constraints of US domestic political factors weaken, the possibility of US and Israeli military action against Iran will increase. If Trump believes the current pressure strategy is unlikely to force Iran to compromise, he will likely choose to restart hostilities, and Israel will most likely follow suit. However, there is still room for diplomatic negotiations. According to Xinhua News Agency, previous hostilities proved that large-scale military strikes cannot defeat Iran. With US and Israeli ammunition stockpiles running low and Middle East US military bases having suffered serious losses, it will be even harder for the US and Israel to achieve their goals by using force against Iran again. Military strikes will not only fail to resolve contradictions but will instead increase the risk of the situation spiraling out of control. Diplomatic negotiations and a political settlement remain the fundamental way to stop the fighting and end the war. Bradley Bowman, a foreign policy and defense expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, also believes that the safer approach for Trump is to continue advancing the existing strategy. With room remaining for diplomatic efforts and economic pressure, restarting military action could bring additional risks. This article is reprinted from "Wall Street See" (Wallstreetcn). Edited by GMTEight: Feng Qiuyi.