Counterpoint Research: Global PC shipments fell 21% year-on-year to 57 million units in Q3, with a further 27% decline expected in Q4.

According to preliminary data from Counterpoint Research, global PC shipments in the third quarter of 2026 fell 21% year-on-year to 57 million units, down 13.8% quarter-on-quarter. The decline was mainly due to persistently high costs for memory and other components, which pushed up PC prices and weighed on market demand. As prices rose, consumers found it harder to justify replacing their devices, and consumer market demand remained weak. Commercial demand was relatively steady, supported by ongoing enterprise device refresh cycles and continued Windows migration, but it was still insufficient to offset the overall market contraction. The year-on-year decline this quarter was also due to a high base in the same period last year. In the third quarter of 2025, concentrated purchasing ahead of the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline and tariff-related inventory adjustments had together driven PC shipment growth. This high base amplified the year-on-year decline in the third quarter of 2026. Global PC shipments by OEM (unit: million units) Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025 Source: Counterpoint Research preliminary PC shipment data In the third quarter of 2026, the market performance of major PC vendors diverged, with the gap between Apple and other leading vendors widening: Lenovo shipped 15 million units with a 26.3% market share, maintaining its market leadership. HP ranked second with shipments of 10.3 million units and an 18.1% market share. Its shipments fell 31% year-on-year, the largest decline among the top six vendors by shipments. Dell ranked third with shipments of 7.6 million units, down 25% year-on-year, and a 13.3% market share. Its decline shows that relatively steady commercial demand cannot fully shield vendors from the overall market downturn. Apple's shipments fell 11% year-on-year to 5.6 million units, with its market share rising to 9.8% from 8.7% in the same period last year. The MacBook Neo somewhat cushioned the shipment decline, helping Apple outperform the overall market. Asus shipped 5.2 million units, down 7% year-on-year and up 19.4% quarter-on-quarter. Its year-on-year decline was smaller than that of the other top five vendors, and its market share rose to 9.2% from 7.8% in the same period last year. The above five vendors together accounted for 76.7% of global PC shipments. Other vendors shipped a combined 13.3 million units, down 16% year-on-year. PC memory price trends, quarter-on-quarter Q3 2025 to Q1 2027 (forecast) Source: Counterpoint Research memory price tracker and forecast Minsoo Kang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, said: "As memory and other component costs continue to rise, system prices have increased accordingly, prompting consumers to delay device replacements, and the global PC market is facing growing pressure. Commercial refresh cycles and Windows migration still provide some support, but are no longer sufficient to offset weakening demand. Apple and Asus outperformed the overall market thanks to differentiated product portfolios and competitive market positioning. However, as affordability increasingly becomes a key factor in consumers' purchasing decisions, even market leaders will find it difficult to sustain shipment growth momentum." The impact of rising costs is not limited to higher product prices. As vendors prioritize configurations better able to cope with rising component costs, price-sensitive consumers have fewer entry-level options, making device replacement even harder. Even though demand to replace aging devices remains, shipments are further constrained as a result. Counterpoint Research expects global PC shipments to fall 27% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026. Full-year shipments in 2027 are expected to be broadly flat compared with 2026, indicating that the market is expected to stabilize at a lower shipment level. David Naranjo, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, said: "The PC industry is entering a phase of structural adjustment. Rising component costs, higher system prices and lengthening replacement cycles are fundamentally reshaping the market landscape. As consumer market demand continues to weaken, OEMs face a dilemma: they must protect margins while maintaining price competitiveness. Global PC shipments are expected to fall 27% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026 and to be broadly flat in 2027; market stabilization does not equate to recovery. AI PCs, high-end displays and differentiated products will bring new market opportunities, but vendors that can combine innovation with competitive pricing, supply chain management capabilities, and product value that appeals to both consumers and enterprises will be more likely to gain an edge in competition."