Broker Morning Meeting Highlights | Economy Bottoming Out and Rebounding in Q3; Data Group Establishment Kicks Off Operational Mainline

Title context: Broker Morning Meeting Highlights | Economy Bottoming Out and Rebounding in Q3; Data Group Establishment Kicks Off Operational Mainline Text: On the previous trading day (October 21), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.60% to 3,713.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.82% to 11,704.35 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.62% to 2,694.71 points; turnover in the two markets was RMB 1,429.348 billion; 1,981 stocks rose, 3,364 fell, and 231 were flat, with 47 hitting the limit up and 0 hitting the limit down. Huayuan Securities believes that Q3 economic momentum bottomed out and rebounded, and pressure to achieve the full-year target is not significant; CITIC SEC believes that domestic and overseas demand for offshore wind is at an inflection point for growth; Guotai Haitong believes that data elements are moving from "building rules" to "doing operations"; Guosheng believes that the key to the transition between old and new growth drivers lies in the diffusion of technology to traditional sectors; EB SECURITIES believes that the intensity of anti-involution efforts in express delivery exceeds expectations, and the rebound in unit prices continues. Huayuan Securities: Macro | Q3 Economy Bottomed Out and Rebounded, Watch the Effects of Incremental Policies Event: 2026Q3 real GDP grew 4.5% year on year (Wind consensus 4.4%, same below), September industrial value added grew 5.5% year on year (expected 5.5%), retail sales grew 1.1% year on year (expected 0.7%), cumulative service retail sales grew 5.0% year on year, and cumulative fixed asset investment fell 7.2% year on year (expected -7.5%). GDP: Q3 economic momentum bottomed out and rebounded, with external demand supporting industrial production. (1) 2026Q3 real GDP grew 4.5% year on year, better than the Wind consensus and our previous forecast. (2) External geopolitical disruptions escalated, and incremental policies and the logic of oil and coal chemical substitution drove an improvement in industrial production. Income distribution: per capita disposable income growth improved slightly, while residents' willingness to consume remained weak. Fixed investment: investment stabilized and rebounded, with fiscal and financial policy working in concert. Consumption: retail sales improved year on year for the month, and service consumption was better than goods consumption. Pressure to achieve the full-year economic target of 4.5%-5.0% may not be significant. September saw strong external demand growth and a stabilization and rebound in domestic investment and consumption, combined with a package of strengthened growth-stabilization policies since late September, so pressure to achieve the full-year economic target of 4.5%-5.0% may not be significant. On October 19, the annual meeting of the Financial Street Holdings forum was held, focusing on stabilizing financial expectations and preventing negative feedback in the bond market, which may provide direct support to the bond market; on the equity side, medium- and long-term institutional development will repair the market ecosystem and safeguard the safety and stability of the capital market, and the risk of further market declines may be marginally eased, with the market potentially gradually entering a phase of bottoming. CITIC SEC: Power Equipment & New Energy | Domestic and Overseas Demand Improving, Volume Inflection Point Approaching China is increasing policy planning and support for offshore wind, and development of deep-sea projects is expected to accelerate; procurement demand in Europe's offshore wind supply chain is building for a new round of volume growth, and domestic and overseas demand is expected to reach a growth inflection point. For core supply chain segments such as pipe piles and submarine cables, the domestic deep-sea trend will drive product specification upgrades and higher value, and push share concentration toward leaders; European local capacity is structurally tightening, opening overseas expansion space for leading manufacturers with manufacturing advantages and global supporting capabilities. We expect domestic and overseas project tendering and supply chain orders to be among the first to recover in 2027, and from 2028 a new phase of product shipments and earnings growth realization may begin. We are bullish on core offshore wind equipment leaders with advantages in technology, products, and market share. Guotai Haitong: Computer | National Data Group Officially Lands in Xiong'an, Data Elements Move from "Building Rules" to "Doing Operations" The National Data Group has been established, and a national-level operating entity is expected to drive external demand for data services. On October 20, 2026, the founding meeting of National Data Group Co., Ltd. was held in Xiong'an New Area, Hebei. The group takes the development and utilization of data resources as its main responsibility and core business, and was established to advance the development and utilization of data resources, unlock the value of data elements, serve AI development, and prosper the data industry ecosystem. National Data Group was jointly funded and established by the State Council, the Xiong'an New Area Management Committee, China Telecom Corporation, China United Network Communications, China Mobile Limited, State Grid, and China Southern Power Grid. Chairman Jian Qin previously served as general manager of China United Network Communications, and general manager Chen Ronghui previously served as deputy director of the National Data Administration. We believe that, judging from the funding structure, the group in its initial stage is expected to rely on data resources and infrastructure in the telecommunications and energy systems; combined with the group's positioning of deepening industrial collaboration and promoting joint business expansion, as well as the requirements of the Implementation Plan for state-owned enterprises to take the lead in carrying out data procurement practices, professional data service providers are expected to participate in data resource development through ecosystem cooperation. The total volume of high-quality datasets increased by more than 60% from the end of Q1, and annotation scale expanded simultaneously. As of the end of June 2026, China had built 120,000 high-quality datasets with a total volume exceeding 1,565 PB, an increase of more than 60% from the end of Q1 2026. In data annotation, seven pilot cities for data annotation had an annotation scale exceeding 119 PB, with 140,000 practitioners. Policies are pushing data payment toward budgeting, and large-scale applications provide demand traction. The Implementation Plan was issued on June 3, 2026, deploying six special actions including strengthening the foundation and expanding capacity and tackling annotation challenges, covering key areas such as industrial manufacturing, financial services, and healthcare, as well as innovative areas such as embodied intelligence and intelligent driving. On commercialization, the plan proposes promoting a leap in business models from basic data package sales to API calls, model-based solutions, and full-stack services, exploring token trading, and pushing government departments, state-owned enterprises, and model companies to include data procurement in budget preparation. On the demand side, according to Liu Liehong, director of the National Data Administration, in March 2026 China's average daily token calls exceeded 140 trillion, an increase of more than 40% from 100 trillion at the end of 2025. We believe that including data procurement in budget preparation is expected to first drive demand for collection, annotation, and governance processing; as rules for rights confirmation, pricing, and revenue distribution gradually improve, new models such as token trading are expected to open medium- and long-term growth space in the circulation and trading segment. Guosheng: Macro | Series on the Transition Between Old and New Growth Drivers VI: Gains and Losses from Industrial Upgrading in the US, Japan, and South Korea Core conclusion: The paths of industrial upgrading in the US, Japan, and South Korea differ, but the experience of the three countries jointly shows that the transition between old and new growth drivers is not simply emerging industries replacing traditional industries; the key lies in whether new technologies can diffuse to broader economic sectors and drive overall productivity gains. Specifically, 1) United States: the information technology revolution in the 1990s not only drove the development of the tech industry but also raised productivity in traditional industries through capital deepening, corporate organizational adjustment, and market competition, but the technology dividend was phased, and employment and wages became polarized; 2) Japan: after the 1970s, Japan successfully promoted industrial upgrading toward high value-added fields such as automobiles and electronics, but thereafter insufficient technology diffusion, the bursting of the asset bubble, and declining resource allocation efficiency, combined with population aging, constrained subsequent growth; 3) South Korea: after the 1980s, South Korea cultivated advantageous industries such as semiconductors through technology introduction, digestion and absorption, and continuous R&D, and promoted the upgrading of traditional manufacturing, but issues of concentrated innovation resources and efficiency divergence between large and small enterprises and across industries remain prominent. For China, the experience of the US, Japan, and South Korea shows that in the transition between old and new growth drivers, it is necessary both to cultivate new growth drivers and to promote efficiency improvement in traditional industries, achieving a smooth succession between old and new growth drivers. At the current stage, China's gradual bottoming of real estate coexists with the rapid development of the technology industry. Going forward, attention should be paid to the diffusion of new technologies to traditional industries and small and medium-sized enterprises, the resolution of existing risks, and employment absorption. To evaluate the effectiveness of the transition, attention should be paid not only to emerging industries themselves but also to whether total factor productivity, returns on capital, and household income can continue to improve. At the policy level, there are three suggestions: first, adhere to the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation; second, adhere to adapting measures to local conditions and establishing the new before abolishing the old; third, balance industrial upgrading with employment structure adjustment. EB SECURITIES: Transportation and Warehousing | Industry Parcel Volume Growth Slows, Unit Price Rebound Continues the Price Repair Trend In September, industry parcel volume maintained growth, with company growth rates diverging. Industry unit prices grew steadily, and the intensity and sustainability of "anti-involution" efforts in express delivery exceeded expectations. Industry concentration edged down, and leading companies' shares diverged. In September 2026, national express delivery business volume was 17.23 billion parcels, up 2.1% year on year. In September 2026, express delivery industry revenue rose 5.6% year on year, and revenue per parcel rose 3.5% year on year.