Broker Morning Meeting Highlights | Financial Street Holdings Forum Releases Reform Signals, Focusing on Interest Rate Anchor Shift and Market Stabilization Mechanism Main Line

On the previous trading day (October 20), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12% to 3735.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.14% to 11801.29 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.26% to 2739.20 points; turnover in the two markets was 1,456.112 billion yuan; 3,778 stocks rose, 1,667 fell, and 130 were flat, with 50 limit-up and 0 limit-down. Guotai Haitong believes the main policy lines are interest rate marketization, capital market inclusiveness, risk convergence, and institutional opening; Sinolink believes stock ETFs remain the main buying force, while margin financing and northbound flows are clearly net outflow; CITIC SEC believes the most pessimistic stage for China-US large models has passed, and domestic models are expected to undergo systematic revaluation; Huafu Securities believes resumption of production will hardly ease the current shortage, and thermal coal has broken through 1,000 yuan; Guotou Securities believes property investment and sales are still bottoming out, while housing prices have marginally improved. Guotai Haitong: Macro | Anchoring a Financial Powerhouse, Building a New Financial Ecosystem Together The 2026Financial Street Holdings Forum released reform signals: the central bank will seize the right moment to promote the overnight repo rate as the main policy rate, establish a liquidity tool for large non-bank redemptions and expand the scope of SLF; the CSRC launched the first batch of active ETFs and deepened New Third Board reform; the National Financial Regulatory Administration will prudently dispose of high-risk institutions and promote reduction in quantity and improvement in quality of small and medium-sized institutions; financial opening will place greater emphasis on invigorating entities and optimizing the ecosystem. We believe the main policy lines are interest rate marketization, capital market inclusiveness, risk convergence, and institutional opening. Monetary policy: The policy rate anchor will be switched at the right time, and support for non-bank liquidity will be strengthened. The central bank stated it will establish a liquidity support tool to address large redemptions by non-bank institutions, expand the scope of institutions eligible for SLF to domestic and foreign-funded legal-person banks, and achieve full coverage of deposit-taking institutions. The framework transformation focuses on switching the policy rate anchor; the overnight repo rate in open market operations will become the main policy rate; the loan pricing benchmark will shift from LPR to a diversified and tiered framework, and the deposit and loan benchmark rates will be phased out. At the same time, it will advance bond market interconnection, pilot proprietary foreign exchange business for clearing banks, emphasize two-way floating of the RMB exchange rate and enhanced flexibility, stress that RMB internationalization focuses on asset supply, and look ahead to the impact of AI on finance. Capital market: Launch active ETFs and deepen New Third Board reform. The CSRC proposed four main lines: stabilizing the market, promoting reform, optimizing the ecosystem, and expanding opening. On the market side, it will improve long-term assessment, expand the entry of medium- and long-term funds, approve the registration of the first batch of 18 active ETFs, and encourage buybacks and increased holdings; on the reform side, it will accelerate the introduction of regulations on listed company supervision; on the ecosystem side, it will introduce four measures: fund monitoring, AI securities compliance, penalties for reductions, and advance compensation; on the opening side, it will enhance QFII convenience, enrich China asset products, and implement the "five synergies" between the mainland and Hong Kong. In addition, the Beijing Stock Exchange will launch BSE 50ETF, new share market value placement, innovative evaluation standards, etc., and deepen the integration of the New Third Board. Financial regulation: Prudently dispose of high-risk institutions and promote risk convergence. The National Financial Regulatory Administration proposed three directions for the "transformation and upgrading" of the banking and insurance industry: improve differentiated assessment and promote reduction in quantity and improvement in quality of small and medium-sized institutions; urge abandonment of scale obsession and punish financial "black and gray industries"; enhance service adaptability and support new quality productive forces, advanced manufacturing, and the construction of the "six networks." Risk prevention and control emphasize comprehensive use of mergers and reorganizations, market exit, and other methods to prudently dispose of high-risk institutions, fill institutional shortcomings, and investigate key persons and key matters; on opening, support foreign institutions and long-term capital to conduct business in China. Financial opening: Facilitate enterprise foreign exchange use and safeguard cross-border operations. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange emphasized incorporating "enterprise cross-border operational autonomy" and "open ecosystem construction" into the same governance framework. On the one hand, strengthen the linkage of foreign exchange policies for trade, investment, and financing to facilitate enterprises' allocation of domestic and overseas funds; on the other hand, create a "policy-ecosystem" dual assessment mechanism. At the same time, it plans to introduce incremental measures such as current account facilitation, capital account optimization, and foreign exchange market opening, expand pilot settlement and sale of foreign exchange by securities companies, and strengthen exchange rate hedging for small and medium-sized enterprises. Sinolink: Strategy | Stock ETFs remain the main buying force, margin financing and northbound net outflow Market trading heat has declined somewhat, and volatility of major indices has continued to pick up. Stock ETFs remain the main buying force in the current market, while leveraged funds represented by margin financing continue to see large net outflows, and the maintenance guarantee ratio continues to fall; northbound and active equity funds have both turned to net outflow again. The market stage still faces obvious trading disturbances, and subsequent attention should be paid to whether the net outflow of margin financing funds can gradually slow and whether the maintenance guarantee ratio can gradually stabilize and rebound. CITIC SEC: Technology | China-US Large Model 26Q4 Outlook: The Most Pessimistic Stage Has Passed Although the current market attitude toward large models is becoming more cautious, we remain firmly optimistic about the long-term commercial value and valuation growth space of China-US models. At present, the RSI closed loop and model iteration are accelerating, and the combined ARR growth of OpenAI and Anthropic remains solid. Model payment and usage are highly uneven, showing early commercialization characteristics similar to the mobile internet era. Even considering only the spread of demand to more enterprises, scenarios, and regions, the commercialization space remains broad. Domestically, demand for data annotation is exploding, the post-training data bottleneck is easing, and domestic model post-training will ultimately break through in the cracks. Looking ahead, we expect 26Q4 to be a key point for confirming large-scale enterprise-level implementation of overseas models. In August-September, due to competition and anti-distillation factors brought by the release of GPT-6-Astra, Anthropic's ARR month-on-month growth rate declined somewhat, but with its release of Opus5.5 at the end of September and expectations for the release of next-generation models such as Fable 5.5 before listing, we believe Anthropic's ARR is expected to regain momentum after October, thereby repairing the market's currently overly pessimistic expectations for the AI sector. At present, domestic model ARR is only equivalent to the level of overseas models 18 months ago, while valuation is only one-tenth of overseas models. Once domestic model capabilities break through, lower revenue base, faster growth speed, and more attractive valuation are expected to drive a systematic revaluation of domestic models. Huafu Securities: Energy Extraction | Resumption of Production Will Hardly Ease the Current Shortage, Thermal Coal Breaks Through 1,000 Yuan Power plant restocking combined with high methanol operating rates has driven coal prices up, and the expected intensity of supply-guarantee resumption of production under a strict safety supervision environment is generally modest. At the macro level, geopolitical conflicts have strengthened countries' emphasis on energy, and high inventories may be a response measure. At the same time, with policies such as rectifying involutionary competition and expanding domestic demand taking effect, the policy bottom for coal prices has been proven in 2025. On the demand side, AI development's pull on energy is an incremental demand, while China's supply chain and energy lowland advantages are a solid guarantee for electricity consumption, and coal prices are in a new round of upward cycle. We are in an era of great energy transformation. Under the policy orientation of establishing the new before abolishing the old and the demand for energy security, coal may still be in a golden age. Coal supply elasticity is limited: first, under the dual carbon background, capacity control is strict, while stricter safety supervision and environmental protection policies squeeze out overproduction; second, supply shows regional differentiation. As resources in the eastern region decrease and Shanxi enters a "stable production" era, mining difficulty may gradually increase, domestic capacity will further concentrate in the west, and supply costs will rise; third, after deeper mining and higher safety standards, coking coal mining difficulty increases, and underproduction may become the new normal, with resource scarcity becoming more evident. Coal's status as a major energy source is difficult to change in the short term. Although a weak macroeconomy has temporarily affected coal demand, relatively rigid supply and rising costs effectively support the bottom of coal prices, and coal prices are still expected to maintain a volatile pattern. Coal enterprise balance sheets are generally healthy, and with overall improvement in dividend ratios, coal stocks still have comparative advantages. Guotou Securities: Real Estate | The Property Market Is Bottoming, Signs of Price Warmth Are Emerging Sales are bottoming and stabilizing, and inventory destocking is showing results. From January to September 2026, national commercial housing sales continued to bottom out, with positive inventory destocking signals. From January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 560 million and sales value was 5.4 trillion yuan, down 13.2% and 13.9% year-on-year respectively, with the declines widening by 1.1 and 0.9 percentage points from January-August, but the decline in sales value narrowed significantly from the low of 20.2% at the beginning of the year, and sales momentum stabilized marginally. According to data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, from January to September, the online signing area of second-hand housing transactions was 620 million , up 10.7% year-on-year, and market activity continued to improve, becoming an important support for stabilizing demand. At the end of September, the unsold area of newly built commercial housing was 750 million , down 1.5% year-on-year, of which the area unsold for less than 3 years fell 5.0%, and the effectiveness of inventory destocking is gradually appearing. Development investment is bottoming, and supply is actively contracting. Real estate development investment is still in the bottoming stage, with active contraction and structural optimization on the supply side. From January to September, national real estate development investment was 5.3 trillion yuan, down 20.6% year-on-year, of which residential investment was 4.1 trillion yuan, down 20.5%, with the decline widening by 0.7 percentage points from January-August. On the supply side, from January to September, floor space under construction was 5.65 billion , down 12.8% year-on-year; floor space newly started was 340 million , down 24.9% year-on-year; floor space completed was 230 million , down 25.1% year-on-year. New starts have continued to operate at a low level, and the industry is accelerating destocking of existing inventory and controlling increments. With continued efforts in policies to stabilize the property market, development investment is expected to stabilize at a low level. Housing prices are stabilizing marginally, with core cities leading gains. Housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities have shown sustained marginal improvement, with more cities posting month-on-month gains and year-on-year declines generally narrowing. In September, the price of newly built commercial residential housing in first-tier cities rose 0.1% month-on-month, with Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rising 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.3% respectively; second-tier cities turned from decline to flat month-on-month, and third-tier cities' decline was flat versus last month; among the 70 cities, 17 saw month-on-month increases in newly built commercial residential prices, 2 more than last month. In the second-hand housing market, first-tier cities' second-hand residential prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage point from last month, and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all rose month-on-month; among the 70 cities, 9 saw month-on-month increases in second-hand residential prices, 6 more than last month. Year-on-year, the declines in newly built commercial residential prices in first-, second-, and third-tier cities narrowed by 0.4, 0.3, and 0.2 percentage points respectively, and the year-on-year decline in second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities narrowed by 1.2 percentage points, with recovery signals spreading outward from core cities. Overall, industry investment and sales are still bottoming, but housing prices have continued to improve marginally, and the market is accumulating momentum for stabilization.