China Securities Co.,Ltd.: New ship price index rises for six consecutive months; semiconductor equipment orders remain robust.

China Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research report stating that ship prices have rebounded month-on-month for six consecutive months, full-year tanker orders are expected to remain at high levels, and bulk carrier orders may follow as the next main line of prosperity, with the current prosperous cycle continuing. The liquid cooling industry has entered a new stage of standardized volume expansion, and attention should be paid to continued upside surprises in secondary-side orders. Storage IPOs continue to advance, order demand remains robust, and overseas expansion is gradually opening up space. For humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, focus on T-chain product releases and mass production progress, and seize layout opportunities with core suppliers. In AIDC power generation equipment, core component segments constrain gas turbine deliveries, and the industry supply-demand gap continues. In September, excavator domestic and export sales resonated upward, and attention should be paid to year-end valuation switching and whether overseas demand exceeds expectations. China Securities Co.,Ltd.'s main views are as follows: Humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation: Focus on T-chain product releases and mass production progress, and seize layout opportunities with core suppliers The T chain is actively advancing factory audits, mass production, and other work, with positive feedback from multiple supply chain parties. It is recommended to focus on the product releases and mass production progress of major customers, which are expected to bring important catalysts to the sector. Original equipment manufacturers can directly reach end users and occupy a high-value position in the value chain. Currently, Siasun Robot&Automation companies are actively promoting capability building in multiple dimensions such as the "brain," "cerebellum," and "body," actively exploring applications in industrial, commercial, and other scenarios, and shipment scale continues to expand; as the generalization level of Siasun Robot&Automation improves, its application scenarios are expected to further expand. Physical AI is the next wave of artificial intelligence, and Siasun Robot&Automation is one of the best physical carriers of AI, with a clear industry development trend. The Siasun Robot&Automation sector is expected to see continuous catalysts at home and abroad, and it is recommended to focus on high-quality segments. AIDC power generation equipment: Core component segments constrain gas turbine deliveries, and the industry supply-demand gap continues Demand side: Gas turbine orders remain prosperous, and Siemens Energy's gas turbine production schedule has been covered through 2032; at the same time, the capacity of internal combustion engines for data center-related projects in the first half of 2026 (including announced, pre-construction, and under-construction) has more than doubled to 45GW. Supply side: BNEF expects that announced expansion plans will drive global gas turbine annual capacity to increase by more than 50% by 2030, with the three giants contributing 28GW of the 35GW of new capacity, but upstream segments such as single-crystal blades, forgings, special alloys, and generators still constrain deliveries. The bank's view: Global gas turbine orders remain prosperous, and the scale of U.S. gas-fired power generation under construction and the share of AIDC-related projects are rising simultaneously. Domestic gas turbines, with shorter delivery cycles, higher cost-effectiveness, and continuously strengthening product competitiveness, are expected to accelerate the capture of overseas market share. Firmly optimistic about domestic gas turbine exports, with a focus on complete units such as China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power and Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group, and recommendations for components such as Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical and Wedge Industrial. Construction machinery: In September, excavator domestic and export sales continued to resonate upward, and the sector will see quarter-by-quarter improvement In September 2026, sales of various types of excavators totaled 22,717 units, up 14.4% year-on-year. Among them: domestic sales were 9,911 units (including 218 electric excavators), up 7.16% year-on-year; exports were 12,806 units (including 65 electric excavators), up 20.7% year-on-year. Growth is expected to continue in the future. Exports maintained strong performance and were not disturbed by international conditions, tariff changes, interest rate hike expectations, and other factors, and the high-growth trend of China's construction machinery remains intact. The domestic landscape is improving, and leading companies have begun to raise prices. Sany, XCMG, Guangxi Liugong Machinery, Shantui, and other companies announced price increases for excavators, cranes, and other products, reflecting an easing of the industry price war since the beginning of the year and a shift toward benign development. Semiconductor equipment: The global prosperity cycle continues to be confirmed, and attention should be paid to the overseas expansion process SEMI updated its forecast and expects semiconductor equipment to continue growing over the next three years. SEMI expects global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales to hit a record high of $165.9 billion in 2026, up 23.2% year-on-year. The growth momentum is expected to continue through 2028, with total equipment sales expected to reach a record $229.5 billion, achieving five consecutive years of growth. TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure. TSMC expects full-year 2026 capital expenditure of $60 billion to $64 billion, compared with its previous estimate of $52 billion to $56 billion, an increase of $8 billion, or about 15%. ASML's overall performance fully exceeded both market expectations and the company's previous guidance. Quarterly total net sales were EUR 9.326 billion, up 21% year-on-year and 6.4% quarter-on-quarter, significantly surpassing the company's previous guidance of EUR 8.4-9.0 billion and the market consensus of EUR 8.85 billion. It raised its full-year performance target for the second time this year, with AI computing power and storage recovery jointly driving high industry prosperity and the profit structure continuing to optimize. Global semiconductor equipment components are experiencing a historically rare full-chain price increase wave. Pricing power in the semiconductor industry chain is structurally shifting upward from chip terminals to equipment and components. Component companies are smaller in scale and have a high proportion of fixed costs, so price increases directly profits; at the same time, production line expansion cycles last 12-18 months, giving them the poorest supply elasticity. Attention should be paid to the domestic substitution demand and pricing logic brought by extended delivery times from overseas suppliers of valves and piping, ceramic parts, RF power supplies, GASBOX, and others. Temperature control equipment: Megawatt-level liquid cooling has been implemented, and the industry has entered a new stage of standardized volume expansion First, on the product side, full liquid cooling is moving from chip level to complete cabinet level, and super nodes are becoming new carriers. Domestic manufacturers have launched the world's first megawatt-level single-phase cold plate full liquid cooling super node, with heat dissipation per cabinet reaching 1 megawatt and heat removal per chip moving toward 5,000 watts, and have achieved orthogonal full liquid cooling and full blind mating, as well as physical isolation of water and electricity. Second, on the industry standards side, the first national standard for cold plate liquid cooling in data centers is about to be implemented, incorporating cold plates, distribution units, circulation pumps, piping, and quick connectors into a unified framework and requiring interchangeability of the same specifications. Supporting general specifications for cabinets and immersion medium standards are being issued simultaneously, clarifying the industry pain point of incompatible interfaces, and the industry is shifting from project-based customization to standardized scale delivery. Third, on the delivery side, order visibility is gradually becoming clear. A leading company received a single refrigeration equipment order from an overseas customer equivalent to more than RMB 2.7 billion, with the delivery period compressed to 120 days. Fourth, on the industry trend side, demand is spreading from chips to the entire cabinet chain, among which the penetration rate of liquid cooling for dedicated chips is expected to continue rising and bring significant incremental volume; domestic substitution is advancing along the core bill of materials from piping and manifolds to quick connectors and cold plates, but remains gradual due to validation cycle constraints, and the focus of competition is shifting to technology, mass production, and global delivery capabilities. The bank judges that profits in the foundry chain will be realized before the brand chain, and the fourth quarter to the first quarter of 2027 will be a watershed for liquid cooling sector performance. In 2027, the industry will shift from broad prosperity to differentiation in share and profitability. Key recommendations for the machinery sector: China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power, Kunshan Dongwei Technology, Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group, China CSSC, Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic, Orbbec, Sany Heavy Industry, Himile Mechanical Science and Technology, Hefei I-TEK OptoElectronics, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment, Bozhon Precision Industry Technology, XCMG Construction Machinery, China International Marine Containers, Centre Testing International Group, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies. Risk analysis: Risks of domestic macroeconomic fluctuations, overseas market fluctuations, and downstream capacity expansion falling short of expectations.