Guotai Haitong: AI glasses commercialization accelerates; industry chain embraces growth opportunities.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the AI glasses industry is moving from the introduction stage to the growth stage. Global AI glasses sales increased from 1.53 million units in 2024 to approximately 8.46 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 453%, and are expected to reach 16 million units in 2026 and 90 million units in 2030, corresponding to a compound growth rate of approximately 60% from 2025 to 2030; the value of the industry chain is concentrating in high-barrier segments such as core components, brand ecosystems, and channel services. Technical capability and customer binding have become core criteria, and the competitive landscape remains dominated by Meta, with Chinese manufacturers accelerating their catch-up. The main views of Guotai Haitong are as follows: The industry is moving from the introduction stage to the growth stage, and AI glasses are moving from "novel tech products" to mass-market consumer smart terminals According to Wellsenn XR data from Weisen Information, global AI glasses sales increased from 1.53 million units in 2024 to approximately 8.46 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 453%; they are expected to reach 16 million units in 2026 and 90 million units in 2030, corresponding to a compound growth rate of approximately 60% from 2025 to 2030. In 2026H1, global AI glasses shipments still grew by 263% year on year, verifying the continuation of the industry's high prosperity. On the demand side, scenarios such as first-person shooting, voice interaction, and real-time translation have taken the lead in completing user validation, and multimodal AI is further driving glasses toward becoming a portable Agent entrance; on the supply side, large models, dedicated SoCs, and optical display technologies continue to mature, and leading manufacturers such as Meta and Xiaomi are iterating intensively, continuously enriching product forms and price bands; on the policy side, in 2026, smart glasses were included for the first time in the scope of the national trade-in subsidy for digital and smart products, further lowering the consumption threshold. The value of the industry chain is concentrating in high-barrier segments such as core components, brand ecosystems, and channel services, and technical capability and customer binding have become core criteria Upstream core components are the first to benefit from the volume ramp-up of finished products, and chip platform manufacturers such as Qualcomm occupy key ecological positions; lenses benefit from personalized needs among people with myopia, astigmatism, and other conditions, and customization, high refractive index, and display adaptation capabilities increase per-unit value. The strategic value of the brand side also goes beyond hardware profits and lies in competing for the entrance to the next generation of personal computing and AI Agents; at the same time, optometry, lens fitting, and after-sales services are difficult to fully move online, further highlighting the channel value of mature fitting networks. The competitive landscape remains dominated by Meta, Chinese manufacturers are accelerating their catch-up, and the industry has entered a stage of multi-brand and multi-form competition Counterpoint data shows that in 2026H1, AI glasses without displays accounted for 96% of global AI glasses shipments, of which Meta's share was approximately 94%; at the same time, AR+AI glasses shipments increased by 449% year on year, and Chinese manufacturers such as Rokid took the lead in promoting the commercialization of display-type products relying on local supply chains. Technology giants such as Samsung and Google are also accelerating their layouts. Google has announced that related smart glasses will be launched in autumn 2026, and Apple also intends to enter the smart glasses market. We believe that the key to victory in future competition will be jointly determined by three capabilities: hardware definition, AI ecosystem, and channel services, which respectively address the core issues of "wearable enough," "truly useful," and "available for purchase and accurately fitted." Regarding related companies, overseas leaders have taken the lead in completing commercialization validation, and domestic optical manufacturers are accelerating their capture of industry dividends Meta relies on its "model + ecosystem + entrance" advantages to continuously expand its AI glasses matrix and strengthen its positioning as a personal Agent entrance; EssilorLuxottica, with the Ray-Ban and Oakley brands, glasses design and manufacturing capabilities, and global channels, is deeply bound to Meta and is the first to realize the volume ramp-up of AI glasses. CONANT OPTICAL's XR business has entered a mass-production ramp-up period and, with customized lens capabilities and a global production capacity layout, has entered the supply chains of several leading customers; Mingyue Optical Lens, relying on high-refractive lens technology, a mature fitting network, and exclusive optical cooperation with Xiaomi AI glasses, has further opened a second growth curve for AI glasses on the basis of upgrading its traditional main business toward high-end products. Risk warnings: risk of industry penetration falling short of expectations, risk of technological iteration and route switching, risk of intensified competition and price wars, risk of reduction in policy subsidies, risk of dependence on major customers and changes in cooperation, and geopolitical and trade policy risks.