U.S. stock investment style shift! Morgan Stanley provides a recommendation list: high-quality stocks break through, and the mid-cycle rotation unfolds across the board.
Morgan Stanley stated that as the mid-cycle shift accelerates, high-quality stocks are breaking out across the board.
Morgan Stanley says high-quality stocks (QUAL) breaking out to 52-week highs, combined with a nearly 10 percentage point gap in earnings revision breadth, indicates that the painful shift in the U.S. stock market toward a "selective mid-cycle" is now fully underway.
Morgan Stanley's composite quality factor has risen about 6% since the equal-weighted S&P 500 peaked on August 14, while the average stock has fallen nearly 4% over the same period. Strategist Michael Wilson wrote in a report published Monday that leadership across quality dimensions is broad, with profitability leading the wayas financing costs rise, investors are becoming increasingly selective about companies able to sustain earnings, margins and cash flow.
Wilson believes the market is shifting from an early-cycle recovery led by low-quality cyclical stocks to a mid-cycle regime in which earnings durability matters more. Since Jackson Hole, higher rates and a more hawkish policy path have been priced in, compressing valuations across most of the market and making the S&P 500 more resilient than the average stock.
The earnings revision picture reinforces the quality logic. The three-month average gap in earnings revision breadth between high- and low-quality stocks has reached about 10%, the second-widest reading since 2010. Historically, when this gap has been in the top quintile of its range, high-quality stocks have outperformed low-quality stocks by about 8% on average over the following 12 months.
Notably, investors do not need to pay up for this advantage. The relative valuation of the quality factor remains near its post-2010 median, with forward P/E roughly in line with low-quality stocks at about 0.98xmaking this factor breakout an attractive entry point for those betting the mid-cycle rotation continues.
To help investors position for this shift, Morgan Stanley screened for stocks that fit this logic. The table below lists companies that are: in the top 1,000 by market cap, in the top quartile on quality score, have seen improving next-12-month EPS revisions over the past three months, and carry an "Overweight" rating from Morgan Stanley analysts.
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