Is the Roadster Just an Appetizer? Well-Known Investor Predicts SpaceX (SPCX.US) Acquisition of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) May Be Officially Announced Within Weeks at $420 per Share

Future Fund Managing Director Gary Black recently tweeted a prediction that SpaceX (SPCX.US) may announce an all-stock acquisition of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) within weeks, and views the launch of the flying Roadster as an opportunity to bring Elon Musk's companies together. The well-known investor said on social platform X: "I agree with the view that the sole purpose of the Roadster launch event is to justify a merger between SpaceX and Tesla, Inc. My judgment: an official announcement will come within the next few weeks that SpaceX will acquire Tesla, Inc. using its own stock as consideration at $420 per share; completion and settlement of this transaction could take a year." However, while making this prediction, he was skeptical about the Roadster's financial impact. Black estimated that the sports car's contribution to Tesla, Inc.'s 2029 earnings per share may be only $0.06, accounting for just 1.1% of the consensus adjusted earnings per share estimate of $5.40. He also expected a limited boost to the overall brand, saying that few drivers would prioritize performance features such as sub-1-second 0-100 km/h acceleration or mid-air flips when buying a car. "Admittedly, the technology and the entire launch event itself are stunning," he commented, while questioning investors' enthusiasm for a niche product that still needs two to three years to come to market. "Third, Tesla, Inc. has historically seen its stock price sell off after launch-event hype faded, and this time will be no exception." Before this launch event, Black was actually not optimistic about the merger plan. He argued at the time that a stock-for-stock merger would be constrained by Tesla, Inc.'s lower valuation multiple, and that stock price volatility before the transaction closes could erode the acquisition premium paid in SpaceX stock. "We maintain a cautious stance on Tesla, Inc. due to its elevated valuation and continued downward pressure on earnings expectations, while we believe unsupervised autonomous driving technology will eventually become commoditized," he said. Roadster debut ignites speculation about a Tesla, Inc.-SpaceX merger Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, also believes the Roadster launch event has a similar motivation: "There are two core takeaways from the Roadster event. First, it is a showcase of engineering prowess with almost no commercial value beyond crushing traditional automakers. Second, Musk is eager to integrate Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX." Musk himself reposted the livestream with the text "Tesla, Inc. x SpaceX." Cooperation between the two sides also extends to a research facility Terafab plans to build at Gigafactory Texas, with plans to design and test about 10 chips per year. "I think the original intent of Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX building a chip factory together is to try this kind of high-risk, high-reward frontier project," Musk said in an interview. On the other hand, Morningstar is more optimistic than Black or Munster about the Roadster's commercial prospects, saying its hardcore engineering capabilities could attract buyer attention to Tesla, Inc.'s broader product lineup. However, the firm still forecasts that once mass production ramps up, Roadster annual deliveries will be fewer than 2,000 units. It is understood that the model has been delayed multiple times, and Musk currently targets production in 2028. Reservation deposits for the Performance and Thrust versions are $50,000 and $250,000, respectively, with delivery not guaranteed. A Rocket version limited to invited users is also planned. Wall Street comments on the merger transaction Barclays noted last week that an all-stock acquisition of Tesla, Inc. by SpaceX is the most likely transaction structure. The bank outlined two possible timelines: an announcement around Tesla, Inc.'s annual shareholder meeting, or a separate announcement within 6 to 12 months. "While we suspect there will be some financial synergies, the real value lies in vertical integration," analysts said. The firm also believes the transaction would connect Tesla, Inc.'s Robotaxi and Optimus projects with SpaceX's AI and space infrastructure, while simplifying Terafab decision-making and helping Musk maintain voting control. However, shareholder approval and antitrust review remain potential obstacles. Baird also expects a potential SpaceX merger to become the dominant topic in Tesla, Inc.'s near-term narrative.