Guotai Haitong: Precious metals have a solid floor; attach importance to layout opportunities in the non-ferrous metals industry.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that September inflation exceeded expectations, oil prices remained high, and Federal Reserve rate hike expectations weighed on precious metal prices, but the long-term logic for precious metals remains solid, and the timing for long-cycle positioning is gradually emerging; copper is expected to fluctuate weakly under macro pressure and domestic inventory buildup; aluminum continues to destock as production resumes after the holiday; tin is supported by supply contraction and destocking; energy metals continue to show strong reality and weak expectations; rare earth prices adjust within a narrow range; the strategic value of strategic minor metals such as tungsten, uranium, and tantalum is highlighted. Guotai Haitong's main views are as follows: Precious metals: September inflation exceeded expectations, oil prices remained high, precious metal prices fluctuated Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October rose slightly while medium-term rate hike expectations persist, weighing on precious metal prices. The long-term logic for precious metals remains solid, and the timing for long-cycle positioning is gradually emerging. Recommendations: Shanjin International Gold, Zhongjin Gold Corp.,Ltd, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, Shengda Resources. Related names: ZIJIN GOLD INTL, WANGUO GOLD GP, LINGBAO GOLD, ZHAOJIN MINING. Copper: Macro pressure rises again, domestic inventory buildup constrains rebound US inflation exceeded expectations, and macro pressure has not yet subsided. Domestic social inventory rose by 12,100 tonnes week-on-week to 113,100 tonnes; increased import arrivals combined with high copper prices weighed on purchasing, and the short-term rebound is under pressure; however, continued LME destocking and tight mine supply still provide support. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; on the equity side, focus on resource companies' output and earnings delivery, and track the subsequent rate hike path, domestic economic data, and the sustainability of restocking on dips. Recommended names: Zijin Mining Group, CMOC Group Limited. Aluminum: Resumption of work drives inventory depletion, aluminum prices fluctuate weakly. On the macro side, US inflation data exceeded expectations, and bets on rate hikes intensified. On the demand side, post-holiday resumption of production drove operating rates higher, with the aluminum processing operating rate continuing to rise to 61.7% this week. On the inventory side, according to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stood at 636,000 tonnes, down 50,000 tonnes week-on-week; after National Day inventory buildup came in below expectations, it quickly turned to destocking; LME inventory at 238,400 tonnes is at a historically extremely low level. Recommendations: Yunnan Aluminium, Tianshan Aluminum Group, CHINAHONGQIAO, Shandong Nanshan Aluminium; related name: CHUANGXIN IND. Tin: Macro pressure weighs on prices, supply contraction and destocking provide support. Wa State's resumption of production is slower than expected, and combined with Yunnan Tin Co.,Ltd.'s maintenance, the combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi fell to 29.36%, limiting supply release. Demand remains mainly restocking on dips, AI and advanced packaging remain resilient, while traditional demand is weak; social inventory fell by 980 tonnes week-on-week to 7,770 tonnes. Rate hike expectations, a strong dollar, and high US Treasury yields weigh on tin prices, and short-term weak fluctuation is expected; focus on maintenance and resumption, Wa State supply recovery, and the sustainability of downstream restocking. Recommended names: Yunnan Tin Co.,Ltd., Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal. Energy metals: Strong reality persists, weak expectations continue to weigh on prices Lithium carbonate: Last week, lithium carbonate output continued to recover and inventory continued to destock, with the pace somewhat slowing. Due to adjustments in third-party data methodology, the low-inventory logic weakened, and the market's trading focus shifted to the 2027 supply-demand situation. On the supply side, the outlook for resumption at Jiangxi's major mine has become slightly clearer, and the Qiankeng mine is progressing smoothly. On the demand side, Q4 demand expectations are average, and the earlier strong-reality trading logic based on low inventory no longer holds. Recommendations: Sinomine Resource Group, Yongxing Special Materials Technology, Chengxin Lithium Group, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group, Zangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium Group, Tianqi Lithium Corporation. Related name: Xizang Mineral Development. Nickel sector: Refined nickel inventory has somewhat destocked, Indonesia's second batch of nickel ore quotas is relatively loose, the nickel supply-demand balance is loose, nickel ore prices continue to weaken, and the nickel price center is expected to remain range-bound. Recommend Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt. Related name: GEM Co.,Ltd.. Rare earths: Rare earth prices adjust within a narrow range In terms of demand and prices, as of October 16, 2026, the prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide were RMB 744,000/t, RMB 1.41 million/t, and RMB 6.38 million/t, respectively, up RMB 4,500/t, down RMB 20,000/t, and down RMB 95,000/t period-on-period, changes of +0.61%, -1.40%, and -1.47%, respectively; the praseodymium-neodymium market remained firm and moved higher; dysprosium and terbium demand remained relatively quiet, with prices overall running weak. Key recommendations among leaders: China Rare Earth Nonferrous Metals, Jl Mag Rare-Earth. Strategic minor metals: Strategic value highlighted Tungsten: Destocking pressure dominates as prices bottom out; focus on structural growth opportunities. Increased imports, reduced long-term contract volumes, and high APT inventory combined with funding pressure drove an acceleration in tungsten price declines; traditional demand is weak, and incremental demand from emerging tungsten applications is temporarily unable to reverse supply-demand conditions. On the equity side, focus on business growth such as PCB micro drills, with key focus on: China Tungsten and Hightech Materials, Xiamen Tungsten; related name: Jiangxi Tungsten Rare and Precious Equipment. Uranium: The September long-term contract price for natural uranium was USD 96.5/lb, flat month-on-month; rigid supply and nuclear power development create a long-standing uranium supply-demand gap, and uranium prices are expected to continue rising. Recommended name: China National Uranium; related name: CGN MINING. Tantalum: Supply-demand mismatch supports tantalum prices, with tantalum ore prices rising to USD 242.5/lb. Global tantalum ore supply is tight, and AI development is driving rapid growth in end demand; the bank expects tantalum prices to remain high and will continue to monitor capacity release at leading companies. Recommended names: Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry, XIMEI RESOURCES. Risk warnings: Downstream demand weaker than expected, large-scale supply release, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut process falling short of expectations.