CMSC: Express Delivery Industry August 2026 Data Tracker, Peak Season Approaching, Focus on Industry Price Elasticity

CMSC released a research report stating that valuations are at low levels, and attention should be paid to peak-season price catalysts. The policy tone of anti-involution continues, overall industry competition remains controllable, and profitability is expected to sustain high growth. At present, the industry's valuation cost-effectiveness and medium- to long-term allocation value remain relatively high. In the short term, it is recommended to watch for price catalysts in core grain-producing regions during peak season. Recommended names: ZTO EXPRESS-W, YTO Express Group, STO Express Co.,Ltd., S.F. Holding. CMSC's main views are as follows: This month's focus: valuation repair opportunities driven by orderly industry competition, gradual optimization of the competitive landscape, and earnings growth. Core data for the express delivery industry: In August 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of business volume slowed. National express delivery business volume reached 16.60 billion parcels, up 2.7% year on year, with the growth rate down 1.4 pct month on month; revenue per parcel rose year on year, with revenue per parcel at RMB 7.66, up 4.0% year on year, with the growth rate up 0.2 pct month on month; revenue: express delivery business revenue reached RMB 127.15 billion, up 6.9% year on year, with the growth rate down 1.2 pct month on month. Regional data for the express delivery industry: In August 2026, the eastern/central/western regions achieved express delivery business volumes of 1.15/0.33/0.17 billion parcels, respectively, changing by +1.1%/+5.9%/+8% year on year, respectively; revenue per parcel for express delivery business above designated size in the eastern/central/western regions was RMB 8.1/6/7.9, respectively, changing by +5.3%/+1.6%/+0.8% year on year, respectively; the eastern, central, and western regions achieved express delivery business revenue of RMB 93.71/19.83/13.6 billion, respectively, changing by +6.5%/+7.5%/+8.9% year on year, respectively. Product-level data for the express delivery industry: In August 2026, intra-city, inter-city, and international (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) express delivery business revenue reached RMB 6.27 billion, RMB 60.30 billion, and RMB 13.29 billion, respectively, changing by +4.3%, +3.9%, and +12.8% year on year, respectively; intra-city, inter-city, and international (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) express delivery business volumes reached 0.125 billion, 1.503 billion, and 0.032 billion parcels, respectively, changing by -5.8%, +3.7%, and -6.8% year on year, respectively; revenue per parcel for intra-city, inter-city, and international (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) express delivery business was RMB 5.02, RMB 4.01, and RMB 41.53, respectively, changing by +10.7%, +0.2%, and +21.0% year on year, respectively. Consumption data: From January to August, cumulative total retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 32.76 trillion, up 1.1% year on year; among this, cumulative online retail sales of physical goods reached RMB 8.42 trillion, up 4.3% year on year; corresponding to a cumulative e-commerce penetration rate of 25.7% from January to August, up 0.7 pct year on year. Core data for listed express delivery companies: business volume growth rates diverged. In August 2026, SF/YTO/Yunda/STO completed express delivery business volumes of 1.29/2.84/2.10/2.53 billion parcels, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.5%/+12.9%/-2.1%/+18.0%, respectively (including the impact of the merger with Daniao Logistics, same below); revenue per parcel: in August, revenue per parcel for SF/YTO/Yunda/STO was RMB 14.3/2.1/2.1/2.1, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +7.8%/-4.7%/+10.4%/+3.4%, respectively, and month-on-month changes of -1.0%/-0.5%/-0.9%/+3.4%, respectively; revenue: in August, SF/YTO/Yunda/STO achieved express delivery business revenue of RMB 18.4/5.8/4.5/5.4 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.4%/+8.0%/+8.4%/+21.9%, respectively; market share: in August, the business volume market shares of SF/YTO/Yunda/STO were 7.7%/17.1%/12.7%/15.3%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.0/+1.5/-0.6/+2.0 pct, respectively, and month-on-month changes of +0.0/+0.1/-0.1/+0.0 pct, respectively. [Investment Recommendation] Investment view: valuations are at low levels, and attention should be paid to peak-season price catalysts. From monthly and weekly data, in August 2026, express delivery business revenue rose 6.9% year on year, and express delivery business volume rose 2.7% year on year; among this, in August, express delivery business volume reached 16.60 billion parcels, up 2.7% year on year, and express delivery business revenue reached RMB 127.15 billion, up 6.9% year on year. From September 28, 2026 to October 4, 2026, express parcel collections were 3.38 billion parcels, down 9.1% month on month and up 3.5% year on year; deliveries were 3.44 billion parcels, down 9.9% month on month and down 2.2% year on year. The policy tone of anti-involution continues, overall industry competition remains controllable, and profitability is expected to sustain high growth. At present, the industry's valuation cost-effectiveness and medium- to long-term allocation value remain relatively high. In the short term, it is recommended to watch for price catalysts in core grain-producing regions during peak season. Recommended names: ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057), YTO Express Group (600233.SH), STO Express Co.,Ltd. (002468.SZ), S.F. Holding (002352.SZ). (The original text did not provide target prices for individual stocks.) [Risk Warning] Deterioration of the price war, instability of franchisee outlets, a sharp decline in macroeconomic growth, a sharp rise in costs, and major changes in international trade policy.