Memory stocks hit by growing pains of a narrative shift! Roundhill recommends a "barbell strategy": large-cap growth + "halo stocks"
Roundhill Investments Chief Investment Strategist Drew Pettit said the market dislikes stock stories that are in transition, and memory stocks are currently in just such an awkward position.
Roundhill Investments Chief Investment Strategist Drew Pettit said the market dislikes stock stories that are in transition, and memory stocks are currently in such an awkward position.
In an interview with CNBC, Pettit explained that memory stocks such as Micron (MU.US) are in the process of evolving their growth narrative, which is why their share prices have been volatile; meanwhile, mega-cap tech leaders continue to hit record highs on the back of strong upward earnings estimate revisions.
"Micron used to be a very strong growth story, and we saw massive upward earnings estimate revisions. Now the question has become where the long-term runway is, and how to deliver on it," he said.
Pettit also noted that the Mag Seven ETF (MAGS) hit new highs because "earnings estimate revisions have been very strong," and "the idiosyncratic stories driving most of its gains have performed very well recently, especially Meta (META), Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL, GOOG), and some other names."
Barbell allocation: large-cap growth + "halo stocks"
Pettit advocates a barbell portfolio strategy, allocating beyond large-cap growth stocksrepresented by exposures such as VUG, IWF, and IVWinto what he calls "halo stocks": listed companies with hard assets and low obsolescence risk, which are beginning to show stronger upward earnings estimate revision trends.
"They are a very good complement to large-cap growth stocks. They won't offset the returns you get from large-cap growth stocks, but they can help you navigate some of the current uncertainty," he explained.
Rebuttal to "1999 redux": market is "micro-efficient"
In response to views comparing the market to the "bifurcated market" of 1999, Pettit pushed back against concerns about market fragility. He argued that despite apparent surface-level worries, "the current market is surprisingly efficient at the micro level, even if it doesn't feel that way at the macro level and index level."
He pointed out that the fundamentals of large AI stocks and mega-cap growth stocks are sufficient to support their performance, while earnings estimate revisions for rate-sensitive small-cap stocks are deteriorating, and "they actually aren't cheap either."
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