Preview of US Stock Market | U.S. stock index futures mixed as Brent crude tops $106; a heavyweight U.S. earnings season kicks off this week.

Pre-Market Market Trends 1. On Monday, October 12, U.S. stock index futures were mixed in pre-market trading. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.15%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.13%. 2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.79%, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 was up 0.85%, France's CAC 40 was up 0.40%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.58%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil was up 1.51% at $93.24 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 1.34% at $106.12 per barrel. Market News U.S. earnings season kicks off with a bang! With the shadow of war in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine looming overhead, U.S. CPI swaying rate hike expectations, can "AI faith" truly conquer all? The highly anticipated U.S. third-quarter earnings season is about to fully begin. Wall Street financial giants including BlackRock, Inc. and JPMorgan Chase will be the first to report results. Meanwhile, the U.S. September CPI inflation data, set for a major release on Wednesday, will directly affect the market's pricing trajectory for Federal Reserve rate hikes and serve as an important gauge for whether the Fed will continue raising rates in October. The geopolitical tensions dominated by the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with GEO Group Inc, continue to exert pressure. This means global stock markets will almost simultaneously face a high-intensity triple test of "the pace of profit realization linked to AI computing resources, financing costs amid rising U.S. Treasury yields, and energy inflation under sustained geopolitical pressure from GEO Group Inc." U.S. Treasury yields hold steady at highs, market awaits CPI and Warsh this week: betting on waiting until December to continue hiking. After the Fed unanimously approved a rate hike last month, Treasury yields had surged sharply; last week they were largely unchanged, hovering near 24-year highs. In the new week, investors are waiting for two things: new data, and hints from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about how quickly the Fed will continue raising rates. Current positioning is amplifying a risk: if the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes in higher than expected, it could reignite this round of selling, as it would pressure the Fed toward more aggressive rate hikes. Warsh will participate in a discussion on Thursday at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meeting in Bangkok, Thailand. Two other closely watched officials Fed Governor Waller and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will also speak. Global bond selloff "raising rates for central banks": yields surge past 4% to highest since 2000, rate hike expectations for eight major economies plunge nearly 200 basis points. Global bond markets are pushing up financing costs on their own, taking on part of the tightening task for major central banks, which could reduce the number of benchmark rate hikes needed by central banks to suppress inflation. After weeks of selling, bond yields have surged to multi-year highs, and even without further action from policymakers, financial conditions have tightened significantly, producing a certain economic dampening effect which is exactly what central banks hoped to achieve by raising policy rates. Compiled data shows traders have subsequently lowered rate hike expectations; since mid-September, the cumulative rate hike magnitude priced into interest rate swap contracts across eight major economies has fallen by nearly 200 basis points. Trump's "energy ceasefire" fails to contain oil price rally, former JPMorgan strategist denounces it as "another hoax." Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire," concentrating the latest disagreement among Wall Street analysts on a key question: can diplomatic statements led by the U.S. President real improvements in energy supply, thereby easing the inflation and Treasury yield surge pressures weighing on global tech asset valuations? Former JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic questioned the credibility of the ceasefire. Kolanovic expressed doubt about Trump's claim that the two countries have agreed to stop attacking energy infrastructure, saying "this weekend, everyone saw burning tankers, oil fields, and airports. This energy ceasefire looks like another hoax." However, Wall Street strategist Tom Lee, who has accurately predicted market moves multiple times since 2025, emphasized that if the energy ceasefire can be delivered, it would help ease the ongoing impact of high oil prices on consumers, the economy, and the stock market. "Big Short" Burry shifts to Nasdaq and semiconductor ETF put options, warns of peak within 9 months. Investor Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis by accurately identifying major flaws in the U.S. subprime mortgage market, has concentrated most of his bearish bets into put options on the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), expecting the market may peak within the next nine months. In his latest Substack blog post published last Sunday, Burry said he has converted most of his previous short positions into options, with put options on the Nasdaq 100 and VanEck Semiconductor ETF now constituting nearly all of his short exposure. He stated: "I think we are within 0 to 9 months of a major top." He added that as major stock indices break through to new highs, the final months of the bull market could be highly volatile. Individual Stock News U.S. memory stocks and optical communication stocks broadly decline in pre-market trading. On Monday's U.S. pre-market, as of press time, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) fell over 2%, SanDisk (SNDK.US) and Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX.US) fell nearly 2%, and Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US) fell over 2%. In optical communications, Coherent (COHR.US) fell over 2%, while Credo Technology (CRDO.US), Astera Labs (ALAB.US), and Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL.US) all fell nearly 2%, and Corning Inc (GLW.US) fell over 1%. Q3 net profit may surge 65%! Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) on track for "sixth consecutive record," AI infrastructure boom shows no sign of ending. Driven by the technology industry's infrastructure spending boom, the world's largest advanced AI chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, is expected to report a record sixth consecutive quarter of profit. Analysts say market demand for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's AI chip manufacturing capacity and its advanced chip packaging technology CoWoS remains strong. According to LSEG SmartEstimate, which compiled estimates from 16 analysts, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR is expected to report on Thursday that third-quarter net profit surged 65% to NT$746.3 billion ($23.4 billion). This estimate places more weight on analysts with stable forecasting accuracy. If net profit exceeds NT$706.56 billion, it would set a historic quarterly net profit high for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR and mark the 11th consecutive quarter of profit growth. Last Thursday, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR reported third-quarter revenue growth of 50% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations and setting a historic high. Musk showcases "AI ambitions" in chipmaking and robotaxi fleet: Terafab to test 10 chip designs a year, Cybercab expands 8x monthly and points to Dallas. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) CEO Elon Musk threw out two messages back-to-back over the weekend, both pointing in the same direction bringing the most critical supply chains and the most critical operational links back under his own control. At the X Takeover event at the Austin, Texas Gigafactory, he described the goal of the Terafab R&D fab to over 2,000 vehicle owners and investors: produce and test about 10 chip designs a year; on the same day, Tesla, Inc.'s AI software head Ashok Elluswamy gave progress on another front on X Austin's Cybercab fleet has surpassed 300 vehicles, expanding 8x in 30 days, with "Dallas soon." What both fronts have in common is that they are being questioned on both "speed" and "certainty." However, the market's response has been lukewarm. As of press time, Tesla, Inc. was up only 0.07% in Monday's U.S. pre-market. IREN (IREN.US) mystery customer revealed? Reportedly Anthropic signs multi-year cloud deal. The Information published an analysis report on the economics of Anthropic's data center leases, detailing how the AI lab is pushing its cloud partners to accelerate the construction of new data centers. According to AI Weekly citing the report: "People familiar with the matter revealed that Anthropic also has an undisclosed multi-year cloud agreement with IREN." In August of this year, IREN disclosed an agreement with a leading AI lab but did not reveal the customer's name. If Anthropic joins the customer list, it would significantly boost IREN, potentially strengthening its position as an AI cloud infrastructure provider amid surging computing demand. As of press time, IREN was up nearly 4% in Monday's U.S. pre-market. Key Economic Data and Event Preview Beijing Time, next day 00:10 2026 FOMC voting member, Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers a speech Earnings Preview Tuesday pre-market: JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS.US), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC.US), Citigroup (C.US), UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH.US)