HK Stock Market Move | Lithium mining stocks fell in early trading; lithium carbonate futures dropped below the 110,000 mark; supply-side restarts and capacity expansion weighed on lithium prices.

Lithium mining stocks fell in early trading. As of press time, Ganfeng Lithium Group (01772) dropped 6.53% to HK$28.06; Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696) fell 4.37% to HK$26.26. On the news front, on the morning of October 12, the main lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange plunged 9% to 108,020 yuan/ton, officially breaking below the 110,000 integer mark, down more than 48% from the May high of 209,800. On October 8, the Yichun Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau once again published a notice proposing acceptance of the environmental impact assessment for the Jianxiawo lithium mine. Chaos Tiancheng Futures pointed out that the resumption progress of Jianxiawo, with an annual capacity of approximately 100,000 tons LCE, is advancing. If subsequent procedures proceed smoothly, the Jianxiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production between the end of this year and the beginning of next year. CITIC SEC believes that global lithium resource companies are accelerating resumption and expansion, and the accelerated supply-side expansion, combined with market concerns over a decline in future demand growth, are jointly weighing on lithium prices. The short-term strong demand boom has failed to provide effective support for prices. The bank expects the global lithium market supply-demand balance to turn into a surplus of 38,000 tons in 2027, and has lowered its forecast operating range for lithium prices in 2026Q4 to 100,000-150,000 yuan/ton. Future price trends will depend on improvements in demand expectations and additional supply disruption risks.