Zheshang: 2026Q4 ushers in a window of accelerated overseas computing power delivery; recommend focusing on segments that ramp up first.

Zheshang released a research report stating that NVIDIA's VR200 will begin small-batch delivery starting in 2026Q3, and is expected to enter a mass-production fulfillment cycle in Q4. Currently, downstream outsourced contract manufacturers and Tier 2 core component suppliers have begun intensive capacity expansion. In Q3, upstream component enterprises are expected to be the first to secure batch orders and release reported profits. Preferred targets are those with high order certainty and the earliest liquid cooling earnings realization. 2026Q4 ushers in a window of accelerated overseas computing power delivery. NVIDIA's VR200 is expected to enter a scale mass-production ramp-up cycle, and from Q4 onward, liquid cooling industry chain earnings will be concentratedly realized. It is recommended to focus on segments that ramp up first. Zheshang's main viewpoints are as follows: Chip power density surge combined with PUE constraints makes liquid cooling a rigid demand for AI data center heat dissipation Currently, the TDP (thermal design power) of AI chips is rising exponentially, and whole-rack TDP has already broken through the limit of air-cooling solutions (40kW). At the same time, many countries have issued PUE policy requirements that new and renovated large/ultra-large data centers have PUE <= 1.25. The introduction of liquid cooling with PUE <= 1.25 in AI data centers has become a rigid heat dissipation requirement. Among liquid cooling technology routes, the non-contact cold plate liquid cooling solution is currently mainstream. Upstream components are the core profit segment of the liquid cooling industry chain, with average gross margins of 25%-30%. Among them, segments such as UQD, CDU, and stainless steel corrugated pipes have gross margins as high as 40%-60% due to high technical/customer certification barriers. NVIDIA and Google are the two core chain leaders in the current liquid cooling industry chain. Domestic suppliers are expected to achieve breakthroughs against Taiwanese and European/American suppliers in the following directions 1) NVIDIA chain: obtain NVIDIA AVL/RVL certification, directly supply ODM/OEM enterprises, or enter the industry chain first through M&A or contract manufacturing, and then gradually increase share. 2) Google chain: directly cooperate with Google CSP enterprises to enter the liquid cooling supply chain for ASIC racks. Key recommendations Core suppliers of stainless steel corrugated pipes with relatively fast earnings realization: JinFu Technology, Jiangsu Wuyang Automation Control Technology; recommended to watch: 1) Secondary-side Tier 1 targets: Shenzhen Envicool Technology, Lingyi Itech, Guangdong Shenling Environmental Systems, Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration; 2) Primary-side targets: Moon Environment Technology; 3) Electronic pumps: Feilong Auto Components, Zhejiang Dayuan Pumps Industry; 4) Optical module liquid cooling cages: Dongguan Dingtong Precision Metal Co.,Ltd., YD Electronic Technology, Dongguan Tarry Electronics, etc. Risk warnings: risk of global cloud vendors' AI capital expenditure falling short of expectations, risk of delayed mass-production delivery of AI servers and ASIC computing power platforms, and risk of major changes in liquid cooling industry technology routes.