Next week, U.S. stock earnings season is here.

Looking ahead to next week, the U.S. third-quarter earnings season officially kicks off, with major U.S. banks set to report first, putting U.S. stocks near record highs to the test. At the same time, the U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI) is about to be released. Against the backdrop of rising energy prices and persistently high Treasury yields, this inflation report could once again sway the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path. U.S. stocks extended their strength this week, with the S&P 500 setting another record closing high, bringing its year-to-date gain to more than 14%. But behind the repeated record highs, the pressures facing the market have not disappeared: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to about 5.24%, near its highest level since 2002, and rising energy costs are also making the inflation outlook more complicated. This means the market not only needs companies to continue delivering strong earnings results, but also needs inflation data to provide more certainty about the monetary policy outlook. If corporate earnings beat expectations and inflation pressures do not intensify further, U.S. stocks may be able to extend their rally; otherwise, risk assets will come under pressure. Next week, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will be the first to report earnings on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock on Wednesday. As leading indicators for the U.S. third-quarter earnings season, the performance of large financial institutions will not only affect the trajectory of the financial sector, but also provide important clues for assessing the operating conditions of U.S. companies and the financial health of consumers. According to LSEG IBES data, analysts expect third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 constituents to grow more than 30% year over year. After a strong performance in the first half of the year, the market has high expectations for continued corporate earnings growth. However, bank stocks have recently lagged the broader market, with the S&P 500 Banks Index down about 7.5% over the past month, as persistently rising Treasury yields have been an important factor weighing on the sector's performance. Investors will focus on banks' trading revenue, the recovery in investment banking, and indicators such as credit card delinquency rates and loan loss provisions. Higher interest rates may help banks earn more on some loans, but they also raise financing costs for businesses and households, increasing borrowers' debt repayment pressure. In addition, tech giants ASML and TSMC will also release earnings. The two companies are respectively involved in advanced chip manufacturing equipment and wafer foundry, and their orders, revenue and future outlook will help the market judge whether the growth momentum of AI infrastructure investment can continue. Compared with earnings, the U.S. September CPI may have a broader impact on the entire market. Ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting at the end of October, the inflation data will help investors judge whether rising energy prices are being transmitted to a broader range of goods and services. The market expects U.S. headline CPI to rise 3.7% year over year in September, with core CPI up 2.5% year over year. The market has recently sharply reduced bets on a Fed rate hike in October. CME's FedWatch tool shows that the market now sees the probability of a Fed rate hike in October falling to about 18%, after once being as high as 70%. The complication with U.S. inflation is that rising energy prices may push headline prices higher again, while the stickiness of services inflation means price pressures may not quickly fade with short-term energy fluctuations. If CPI comes in significantly above expectations, the market may reassess the need for the Fed to tighten policy, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher. In addition to CPI, U.S. September PPI and retail sales to be released next Thursday will also draw attention. The former helps gauge changes in energy costs and upstream price pressures, while the latter will test whether U.S. consumers can continue to support economic growth. The tech sector also has several noteworthy events next week. Apple plans to hold a media event in New York next Tuesday called "Welcome Home," with investors watching for the latest developments in its consumer electronics and ecosystem businesses. TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 will be held in San Francisco, where AI, Siasun Robot&Automation, enterprise software and startup financing trends are expected to be key focuses. Overview of key events next week: Tuesday (Oct. 13): U.S. September NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, U.S. ADP employment weekly change for the week ended Sept. 26, U.S. September existing home sales annualized, Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks, Apple holds a smart home new product launch event in New York Wednesday (Oct. 14): China September CPI year-on-year, U.S. September unadjusted CPI year-on-year, U.S. September seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month, U.S. September seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month, Boston Fed President Collins speaks, IEA releases monthly oil market report, Fed Governor Bowman speaks Thursday (Oct. 15): U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ended Oct. 9, Australia September seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 10, U.S. September retail sales month-on-month, U.S. September PPI year-on-year, U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week ended Oct. 9, Fed releases Beige Book on economic conditions Friday (Oct. 16): U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ended Oct. 9, euro area September CPI year-on-year final reading, U.S. September industrial production month-on-month, Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks, Fed Chairman Warsh attends the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and holds a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva. This article is reprinted from Cailian Press, edited by GMTEight: Chen Yufeng.