Founder: AI drives growth in semiconductor equipment demand, accelerating domestic substitution.

Founder released a research report stating that, benefiting from accelerated AI infrastructure investment, increasing device architecture complexity, and high-performance demand such as HBM, global semiconductor equipment demand continues to grow strongly. According to a SEMI report, global semiconductor equipment sales are expected to reach a new high of $165.9 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, and the equipment market size is expected to reach $229.5 billion in 2028, achieving five consecutive years of growth; on the supply side, domestic manufacturers have made breakthroughs in improving localization rates in areas such as etching, deposition, cleaning, and CMP, but localization rates in advanced processes and segments such as coating and development, metrology and inspection, and ion implantation remain relatively low. Founder's main points are as follows: Since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, wafer fabs continued to expand capacity in 2021-2022 to support terminal demand growth such as high-performance computing and automobiles. In addition, various regions also continued to invest to avoid semiconductor supply chain constraints similar to those during the pandemic. In 2023, due to weak downstream demand and memory inventory adjustments, South Korea's capital expenditure declined significantly. Entering 2024, benefiting from capacity expansion in advanced logic, mature logic, advanced packaging, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), as well as a substantial increase in China investment, equipment sales recovered strongly. Starting in 2025, benefiting from increasing device architecture complexity, accelerated penetration of advanced/heterogeneous packaging, and the stringent performance requirements of AI and HBM, equipment demand continued to maintain strong growth, but some consumer, automotive, and industrial demand remained weak. According to a SEMI report, global semiconductor equipment sales are expected to reach a new high of $165.9 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, up from the 15.1% growth rate in 2025. The equipment market size is expected to reach $229.5 billion by 2028, achieving five consecutive years of growth. This optimistic growth expectation mainly comes from the acceleration of AI infrastructure investment, as well as increased investment in advanced logic, memory, and back-end technologies required by higher computing density, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) investment, and more complex device architectures. From the perspective of segmented markets: In recent years, benefiting from capacity construction at leading-edge nodes for AI accelerators, high-performance computing, and high-end mobile processors, sales of front-end equipment used in Foundry and Logic applications have grown steadily. SEMI expects equipment sales in this field to grow by 18.9%, 18.1%, and 13.6% in 2026-2028, respectively. In the memory-related equipment field, DRAM is driven by HBM demand, migration to advanced DRAM nodes, and NAND technology transformation. At the same time, 3D NAND layer migration and investment in higher-density architectures have also driven growth in NAND equipment investment. From the demand side: On the one hand, under the AI development trend, both storage and logic are driving growth in equipment demand. On the other hand, from the perspective of technological iteration, advanced processes have greatly increased the complexity and number of process steps in wafer manufacturing. To ensure capacity, more equipment is needed on production lines. In the FLASH memory chip field, as mainstream manufacturing processes have evolved from 2D NAND to 3D NAND structures, the increased structural complexity has also gradually increased demand for thin-film deposition equipment. From the supply side, after years of product refinement, domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers have achieved breakthroughs in improving localization rates in areas such as etching, deposition, cleaning, and CMP. Some domestic manufacturers have even achieved a leap from domestic substitution to exports, and many leading companies have developed toward platformization, such as NAURA Technology Group, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China, and Hangzhou Changchuan Technology. However, in the field of advanced processes, as well as segments such as coating and development, metrology and inspection, and ion implantation, the localization rate remains relatively low. Overall, a broad equipment market space on the demand side + strong downstream demand + technological iteration, and domestic substitution + exports on the supply side, make semiconductor equipment stand out even among many booming mechanical equipment tracks, with relatively good sustainability. Investment recommendations: Recommend paying attention to front-end equipment platform companies NAURA Technology Group and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China; companies in low-localization-rate segments such as Hwatsing Technology in ion implantation; Kingsemi Co., Ltd. in coating and development; Skyverse Technology, Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group, and Suzhou TZTEK Technology in metrology equipment; and Piotech Inc., Jiangsu Leadmicro Nano Technology, and ACM Research in thin-film deposition. For back-end packaging and testing equipment, pay attention to Hangzhou Changchuan Technology, Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology, and Shenzhen SEICHI Technologies. In the equipment components segment, focus on Shenyang Fortune Precision Equipment, Shanghai Gentech, Sichuan Injet Electric, MaxOne Semiconductor, Chongqing Genori Technology, Jiangsu Gao kai Precision Fluid Technology, Chengdu Ultra Pure Applied Materials, Tolerance Technology, Sidea Semiconductor Equipment, Suzhou Kematek, Inc., Kunshan Kinglai Hygienic Materials, and others. Risk warnings: technological progress falling short of expectations, downstream demand falling short of expectations, macroeconomic fluctuations, and intensifying industry competition risks.