AI agents ignite CPU demand! Mizuho forecasts market size to reach $209 billion by 2030, raises price targets for AMD (AMD.US), Intel Corporation (INTC.US), and others.

Mizuho stated that as AI agent application scenarios rapidly increase, server CPU demand is expected to see substantial growth, further driving demand for DRAM, NAND, and server equipment. Based on its latest forecast for AI agent infrastructure demand, Mizuho raised its price targets for AMD (AMD.US), Intel Corporation (INTC.US), Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C (DELL.US), SanDisk (SNDK.US), and Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI.US), while reiterating its bullish views on NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US). Mizuho analysts led by Vijay Rakesh estimate that by 2030, the market for AI agent-specific CPUs will reach approximately $80 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 123% over the next four years; the market for head node CPUs used to coordinate computing tasks is expected to reach $68 billion, with a CAGR of about 61%; the traditional CPU market is projected to reach $60 billion, with a CAGR of only about 2%. Overall, Mizuho expects the global server CPU total addressable market (TAM) to grow to approximately $209 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 32% over the next four yearsa forecast that is even below AMD's long-term market size target of more than $220 billion. AI agents will be the most important growth driver. Mizuho estimates that AI agent-related CPU demand as a share of total server CPU demand will rapidly rise from about 4% currently to about 30% by 2030. At the same time, across the respective CPU, DRAM, and NAND markets, AI agents could ultimately contribute 22% to 30% of shipment demand. Mizuho noted that Meta's (META.US) recent launch of the personal AI agent Muse has been well received by the market, and OpenAI's release of Dots also indicates that AI agents are becoming more deeply integrated into daily workflows. As AI agents need to continuously execute tasks, call models, and coordinate different computing resources, their adoption is expected to significantly increase server-side CPU and storage demand. In the near term, Mizuho believes four leading CPUs are poised to be important beneficiaries of AI agent workloads, including Arm's (ARM.US) AGI CPU, AMD's Venice, NVIDIA Corporation's Vera, and Intel Corporation's Diamond Rapids. Regarding the server CPU competitive landscape, Mizuho expects revenue for AMD and Intel Corporation to grow steadily. AMD's server CPU revenue is projected to increase from about $12 billion in 2025 to about $44 billion in 2028, while Intel Corporation's is expected to rise from about $17 billion to $41 billion. By comparison, NVIDIA Corporation may show a steeper growth curve. Mizuho estimates that its server CPU revenue will surge from about $7 billion in 2025 to about $60 billion in 2028, and is expected to surpass its competitors by 2027. With Vera ramping up, NVIDIA Corporation is expected to expand market share through Vera standalone racks as well as CPU products paired with GPU compute nodes. Mizuho maintains an "Outperform" rating and a $325 price target on NVIDIA Corporation. Server manufacturers are also expected to share in the infrastructure investment benefits brought by AI agents. Mizuho estimates that Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C's pure CPU server revenue could increase from about $19 billion in 2025 to about $40 billion in 2028; Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s related revenue could grow from $7 billion to $17 billion, mainly driven by AI agent orchestration demand and traditional enterprise server deployments. Based on the above demand outlook, Mizuho raised its price target on AMD from $580 to $705, on Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C from $600 to $650, on Intel Corporation from $92 to $114, on SanDisk from $1,875 to $2,050, and on Super Micro Computer, Inc. from $35 to $43. Except for giving Super Micro Computer, Inc. a "Neutral" rating, Mizuho maintains an "Outperform" rating on all the other aforementioned companies. Memory chips are also seen by Mizuho as an important beneficiary of expanding AI agent demand. As AI agents drive growth in DRAM and NAND demand, the firm reiterated its "Outperform" rating and $1,400 price target on Micron Technology, Inc.