Citi: Tourism demand may have been released early in late September, likely dampening Golden Week performance.
Citi believes that a longer holiday may drive more long-distance travel demand, which is overall positive for hotel booking volumes, but pricing performance may be less attractive.
Citi released a research report stating that due to the proximity of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day Golden Week, tourism demand may have been released early in late September, likely dampening the performance of the upcoming Golden Week. A longer holiday may drive more long-distance travel demand, and the bank believes this is overall positive for hotel booking volumes, though pricing performance may be less attractive. Within the sector, the bank is bullish on Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR (ATAT.US) and HWORLD-S (01179).
The bank noted that according to data from the Ministry of Transport, nationwide passenger volume during the three-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday reached 643 million trips, up 2.2% compared with the 2024 Mid-Autumn Festival. Among these, railway, aviation, and waterway passenger volumes increased by 26.3%, 19.8%, and 45.7% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting an early release of medium- and long-distance travel demand ahead of the Golden Week; short-distance self-driving passenger volume edged down 0.5% year-on-year, and self-driving demand during the Golden Week is expected to rebound with the implementation of the seven-day toll-free highway policy starting October 1.
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