GF SEC: For the National Day holiday, should A-shares "hold cash for the holiday" OR "hold stocks for the holiday"?

GF SEC released a research report stating that, based on the actual performance of the market and styles in 2026, combined with historical patterns, it offers an outlook for the market around the 2026 National Day holiday: First, corresponding to the remaining three trading days before the holiday, at this position the necessity for further position reduction is not strong; instead, it is easy to miss potential rebound opportunities after the holiday. After the market shrank volume by 50% from its July high, volume has stabilized somewhat; after the holiday, trading volume is expected to recover, and at this position an effective rebound is more likely to occur. In addition to the "calendar effect," historically post-holiday market performance is mainly affected by incremental information during the holiday period. Historically, in the first week after the holiday, TMT had the highest probability of outperforming the all-A index among major style indices. Combined with this year's actual style performance, the market in October is expected to gradually return to prosperity-based pricing, so if the growth style adjusts again in the last week before the holiday, it will provide a rare layout opportunity for Q4. Priority should be given to the AI industry chain with high prosperity in the third-quarter reports, as well as segmented alpha in non-AI areas (pharmaceuticals, shipping, shipbuilding, selected segments of the export chain, etc.). The main views of GF SEC are as follows: For long holidays such as Spring Festival and National Day, A-share investors often discuss whether to "hold cash for the holiday" or "hold stocks for the holiday"? In essence, the bank recommends reducing this kind of short-term speculation, but it is still necessary to review the speculation process clearly to better understand short-term market fluctuations. Based on data statistics from 2011-2025 (excluding the 2024 9/24 period), the bank summarizes the historical patterns as follows: 1. From the perspective of trading volume: 1-2 weeks before a long holiday, all-A trading volume shrinks by 25-30%, and recovers in the week after the holiday. The main reasons include: investors worrying about overseas uncertainty during the holiday, and leveraged funds needing to pay margin interest by calendar day, leading to position reduction, etc. 2. From the perspective of broad-based index prices: most indices (Wind All-A, ChiNext Index, CSI 1000) perform weakly 1-2 weeks before the "National Day holiday," stabilize in the 2 trading days before the holiday, and rebound and rise in the first week after the holiday. STAR 50 rises and falls about equally before the holiday, based on industry pricing. 3. Over the past 15 years, in 13 of those years the post-holiday closing price rebounded by more than 2% from the pre-holiday low. In other words, if one lays out positions on dips before the holiday, the win rate for making money after the holiday exceeds 80%. 4. Sector performance: TMT has the highest probability of outperforming the broader market in the week after the holiday and the highest average excess return, with a 73% probability of outperforming. 5. Industry performance: combining the probability of rebound in the week after the holiday and the average excess return, the top sectors are computers, agriculture, textiles and apparel, chemicals, etc. Based on the actual performance of the market and styles in 2026, combined with historical patterns, the outlook for the market around the 2026 National Day holiday is: 1. First, corresponding to the remaining three trading days before the holiday, at this position the necessity for further position reduction is not strong; instead, it is easy to miss potential rebound opportunities after the holiday. 2. After the market shrank volume by 50% from its July high, volume has stabilized somewhat; after the holiday, trading volume is expected to recover, and at this position an effective rebound is more likely to occur. 3. In addition to the "calendar effect," historically post-holiday market performance is mainly affected by incremental information during the holiday period. Looking ahead to the Chinese and foreign economic and policy environment in 2026, the market has already fairly fully anticipated and priced in several negative factors in the earlier period, and the news flow during the 2026 National Day period is expected to be largely stable. (Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, AI industry progress, China-U.S. meetings, etc.) 4. Historically, in the first week after the holiday, TMT had the highest probability of outperforming the all-A index among major style indices. Combined with this year's actual style performance, the market in October is expected to gradually return to prosperity-based pricing, so if the growth style adjusts again in the last week before the holiday, it will provide a rare layout opportunity for Q4 (the prosperity advantage in the third-quarter reports, as well as a series of catalysts in the AI industry chain). 5. Maintain allocation recommendations: prioritize the AI industry chain with high prosperity in the third-quarter reports, as well as segmented alpha in non-AI areas (pharmaceuticals, shipping, shipbuilding, selected segments of the export chain, etc.). For the dividend sector, there is still a win rate at present, but the expected return space is not as good as 630.