LEADS BIOLABS-B (09887), which has been in a sustained one-way decline, is getting closer to a key turning point for the next market move?

Title context: LEADS BIOLABS-B (09887), which has been in a sustained one-way decline, is getting closer to a key turning point for the next market move? Text: Recently, LEADS BIOLABS-B (09887)'s core product VELYSIN (opatasumimab, PD-L1/4-1BB bispecific antibody) has attracted considerable attention in the international academic community. On September 14, Leads Biolabs presented updated Phase II clinical study data for the drug in combination with chemotherapy as first-line treatment for NSCLC in an oral presentation at the WCLC 2026 Congress; the company subsequently announced that the drug's pivotal registrational Phase IIB study as monotherapy for advanced EP-NEC was selected as a Late-Breaking Abstract (LBA) at the European Society for Medical Oncology Annual Meeting (2026 ESMO) in October this year, and that three studies received Preferred Oral Presentation eligibility. For an 18A company currently priced on a "clinical data/BD option" logic, this is undoubtedly a clear positive. However, in the secondary market, Leads Biolabs appears not to have received a premium from the above positives. It has been observed that after the intraday share price touched a high of HK$78.40, Leads Biolabs began to enter a sustained downward channel, and even after the disclosure of positive announcements on September 14 and September 21, the share price failed to be noticeably boosted. Therefore, when Leads Biolabs' share price will price in the positives has become the focus of investors' attention at this stage. When will the one-way decline end? From the market performance, from August 17 to now, Leads Biolabs' share price has seen a maximum drawdown of 33.16%. During this process, its technical picture has presented a complex structure of "strong bearish trend + deep oversold + shrinking volume new lows." From the perspective of moving averages, after the 5-day line officially confirmed a downward cross below the 10-day line on September 1, Leads Biolabs' share price began to move into a downtrend with a fully bearish alignment of moving average indicators. Although on September 24, its 60-day line remained above the 20-day line, starting from September 16, Leads Biolabs' market moving averages had all been breached by the share price, and the company's share price was also entirely below the day's BBI indicator. This indicates that while the current market confirms bearish dominance, its technical picture has shifted from short-term weakness to medium-term weakness. The above conclusion is also cross-validated by the intraday momentum indicators and volume-price performance during the same period. In terms of momentum indicators, whether RSI, CCI, or WR indicators, all show severe oversold signals, among which RSI and CCI have been in the overbought range for more than 10 days; at the same time, the intraday KDJ indicator also indicates deep overbought conditions, not only showing an extremely low J value of -10.11 within the range, but also forming a death cross again on September 24, signaling that the company's share price may still face inertial downward pressure in the short term. In terms of volume performance, since September, Leads Biolabs' share price has continued to decline on heavy volume. On September 15, the day of the sharp drop, the company's trading volume reached 6.4323 million shares, showing obvious characteristics of panic selling. Looking back at the entire process of this round of Leads Biolabs' share price decline, investors can easily see that alongside the bearish alignment of intraday moving averages, there was also high-level resonance in the ADX indicator. To some extent, this may indicate that this round of Leads Biolabs' market movement is not an ordinary pullback, but a trend-driven selloff. In particular, on the day after the company disclosed data at the WCLC Congress on September 14, the company's share price suffered a single-day heavy-volume plunge of 7.15%, confirming an acceleration of the decline. Afterward, although the company's share price rebounded slightly, volume shrank, and the rebound momentum also weakened noticeably. Nevertheless, after the sharp drop on September 15, its intraday volume structure still showed certain marginal changes. According to observations, during the period from September 16 to September 24, Leads Biolabs' average daily trading volume shrank significantly compared with September 15, at one point amounting to only 1.0031 million shares, which to some extent indicates that active selling pressure in the market showed a trend of decay. In addition, the intraday OBV indicator also recovered from a low of -3.06 on September 16 to -2.57 on September 23, forming a bullish OBV divergence, revealing an early trend of marginal improvement in capital flows, as well as a phenomenon amid weak consolidation. However, if the company's market subsequently shows consecutive heavy-volume bullish candles, this may become an important signal indicating that Leads Biolabs' share price will end this round of one-way decline. When will the market price in the positives? As mentioned above, for an 18A company, the many positives recently announced by Leads Biolabs are enough to become an important DRIVE for a short-term share price reversal, but judging from the feedback in the secondary market, investors seem to be waiting for a more important time window. Judging from the share price performance after the lock-up expiration of Leads Biolabs' early shareholders on July 25 this year, the company's share price rose by as much as 58.06% between July 30 and August 17. The important reasons driving the company's share price to stage the above rally were, first, the clearing of lock-up-related pressure on the market side, and second, the continuous release of R&D milestone positives for its core product VELYSIN. It is understood that although the early shareholder lock-up expiration wave that Leads Biolabs faced on July 25 involved 42 early shareholders of the company, with 104 million shares unlocked, accounting for 52.22% of the company's total share capital, and involving an unlocked market value of HK$5.271 billion, and although the company also experienced a large-scale share deposit anomaly before the unlock, the company announced on July 24 that the CEO voluntarily extended the lock-up period, which stabilized market confidence to a certain extent. In terms of market performance, Leads Biolabs' three-day turnover rate from July 27 to 29 totaled about 20%, and trading volume surged from the million-share level on average per day to the ten-million-share level; although its share price closed at HK$50.90 on July 30, hitting a stage low, the turnover rate also quickly fell back to 1.18% at the same time. As the lock-up-related selling pressure in Leads Biolabs' market was fully digested, this also signaled that its chip structure completed a reset in the short term. Afterward, Leads Biolabs released R&D and regulatory milestones for its core product VELYSIN on July 30, August 3, and August 6 respectively, and combined with the market trading the drug's NDA expectations in advance, this drove the company's share price to rise continuously, eventually reaching a stage high. On August 21, the day the company announced acceptance of VELYSIN's NDA, its share price instead closed down 6.44%. This actually reflects that the market's pricing rhythm is "expectations first, realization upon landing." In other words, the above positives had already been fully traded beforehand. This pricing rhythm is also reflected in the data disclosure at the WCLC Congress. Although Leads Biolabs only officially disclosed updated Phase II clinical study data for VELYSIN combined with chemotherapy as first-line treatment for NSCLC on September 14, key data had actually already been partially disclosed when the abstract was published on August 20. The company's share price closing up 8.02% that day was already pricing it in as "positive data." Because by the time the WCLC Congress abstract was published, Leads Biolabs' intraday profit ratio had already reached the range above 80%, this positive was more like an "emotion amplifier" that accelerated the company's share price trend at the time, and became an important "driver" for the subsequent realization of continued positives and share price pullback. If the market's pricing rhythm for Leads Biolabs continues to maintain "expectations first, realization upon landing," then at this stage it may be getting closer and closer to the key turning point for its next round of market movement, and the key catalyst among this is the 2026 ESMO Annual Meeting. For Leads Biolabs, the data the company will disclose at the ESMO Annual Meeting this time is particularly important, because what will be disclosed is the "decisive evidence" for the NDA approval of its core product VELYSIN. In the announcement released on September 21, Leads Biolabs clearly pointed out that the EP-NEC IIb study was selected as an LBA and received a Preferred Oral Presentation, "marking that this study possesses breakthrough innovative nature and major clinical value, and its results are expected to change existing clinical practice." This study evaluates VELYSIN as monotherapy for advanced EP-NEC patients who have previously received second-line or later treatment, and this is precisely the core registrational study on which the NDA filing is based. In short, the core product data about to be disclosed at the ESMO 2026 Annual Meeting is essentially a "commercialization access validation" for Leads Biolabs. For this 18A company that has not yet achieved product commercialization, the above data disclosure may become a key variable determining its future medium- to long-term valuation center.