Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | This round of super strong El Nio warming may hit a historic peak

Yesterday, the market surged and then pulled back, with all three major indices closing lower collectively. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.82 trillion yuan. On the board, hot spots rotated rapidly, with sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles, semiconductors, and agriculture showing active performance. On the decline side, precious metals concepts fluctuated and adjusted. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.4%. CICC believes that this round of super strong El Nino warming may hit a historic peak; China Securities Co.,Ltd. believes that freight rates on major global container shipping routes continue to diverge, the composite index continues to rise, and the Europe route continues to fall; CITIC SEC believes that the gas turbine industry is in a new round of prosperity cycle. CICC: This round of super strong El Nino warming may hit a historic peak NOAA expects that a "super strong" El Nino event, potentially the strongest since observational records began, may form. Since 1960, successive strong and super strong El Nino events have likely led to reduced global corn and palm production, while soybeans may still see increased output. At present, the global Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group supply-demand fundamentals are already in a stage of switching from loose to tight balance, compounded by restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushing up oil prices, planting costs, and demand for biofuel substitution, as well as blocked grain exports from the Black Sea. Supply and demand, geopolitics, and weather are jointly catalyzing stronger prices. China Securities Co.,Ltd.: Freight rates on major global container shipping routes continue to diverge, the composite index continues to rise, and the Europe route continues to fall This week, China's export container transportation demand remained stable, ocean route trends diverged, and the composite index rose slightly. On September 11, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (in preparation) was 3662.18 points, up 2.0% from the previous period, marking seven consecutive weeks of gains. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports in August grew 25.0% year-on-year in US dollar terms, and foreign trade continued its rapid growth trend, providing long-term support for the stable development of the container shipping market. The market continued its divergent pattern of "US and Australia-New Zealand routes rising, Europe route falling, and South America turning down": on the one hand, global port congestion is still ongoing, with more than 4 million TEU of ship capacity stranded due to congestion, and global idle capacity has fallen to a historic low of about 0.5%. The average waiting time for large vessels at major ports such as Shanghai and Ningbo remains 4-9 days, and schedule delays continue to transmit downstream, intensifying operational pressure at ports in South China and Southeast Asia; the Dutch port strike has reduced supply chain efficiency on the European end, with major hub ports such as Rotterdam clearly affected. On the other hand, the Panama Canal has further reduced daily vessel transit quotas since September and continues to enforce draft restrictions. Shipping companies have successively announced blank sailing plans for the National Day Golden Week, and the overall blank sailing rate is expected to rise to about 30% in early October. The market generally expects that even entering the traditional off-season of the National Day Golden Week, under the dual effects of backlogged cargo not yet fully digested and effective capacity being limited, vessel space utilization will remain high, and freight rates will still have short-term support. Overall, supply and demand in the peak season market remain in a tight balance, with obvious divergence in route trends. CITIC SEC: The gas turbine industry is in a new round of prosperity cycle Small and medium-sized gas turbines are seeing faster demand growth due to advantages such as flexible deployment and short construction cycles. On the supply side, overseas OEMs have long expansion cycles, gas turbine supply remains persistently tight, and capacity constraints in key hot-end components and large rotating parts are transmitting upstream. Overseas supply-demand gaps and supply constraints on aero-derivative gas turbine core engines are expected to drive demand spillover to domestic complete machine and component industrial chains, and upstream materials such as high-temperature alloys are also welcoming development opportunities. This article is reprinted from "Cailian Press", GMTEight editor: Li Fo.