Guotai Haitong: TCB's Deterministic Volume Expansion, Mixed Bonding Platforming Opens Up a Second Growth Curve

Guotai Haitong published a research report stating that AI/HPC is driving demand expansion for GPUs/ASICs and HBM, and TCB equipment is currently one of the most certain segments of equipment. The demand for high-density interconnections such as HBM4e/5 and 3DLogic is expected to gradually drive the penetration of D2WHB. HBM is expected to be introduced early on from critical interfaces, and with an increase in stacking layers and interconnection requirements, the penetration rate of HBM in high-end bonding is anticipated to continue to expand. Bonding equipment is expected to become an important node for extending the value of advanced packaging equipment into mid-stream production. Key points from Guotai Haitong are as follows: AI/HPC is driving advanced packaging capital expenditures towards back-end equipment, and TCB equipment is currently one of the most certain segments of equipment. The firm believes that AI/HPC is driving the demand expansion for GPUs/ASICs and HBM. As the stacking layers of HBM increase and the penetration rates of 2.5D/3D packaging rise, traditional flip-chip packaging faces constraints in terms of interconnection precision, warpage control, and ultra-fine pitch interconnection. TCB, with its advantages of high precision alignment and controllable temperature and pressure, has become the mainstream solution for HBM. Additionally, the reduction in pitch spacing will also drive some TCB equipment towards Fluxless TCB. Fluxless TCB has already received orders in the logic field, and memory manufacturers have begun verifying HBM4e-related processes. Hybrid bonding offers advantages in high interconnection density, low power consumption, and low thermal resistance. As HBM and 3DLogic upgrade, it is expected to become a core technological direction. Despite requiring significant upfront investment, hybrid bonding brings clear advantages in interconnection density, bandwidth density, and energy efficiency. Thanks to economies of scale, the single interconnection cost of HBM is also expected to be significantly lower than that of TCB. The firm believes that the demand for high-density interconnections like HBM4e/5 and 3DLogic will drive the gradual penetration of D2WHB. HBM is expected to start being introduced from critical interfaces early on, and as stacking layers and interconnection requirements increase, the penetration rate of HBM in high-end bonding will continue to expand. The investment value of hybrid bonding lies not only in the growth of equipment demand but also in the enhancement of equipment value and industrial chain value brought about by platformization. The firm believes that D2W hybrid bonding places higher requirements on wafer surface flatness, cleanliness, activation, and alignment precision, prompting bonding equipment to evolve from single machines to integrated platforms that include cleaning, plasma activation, and in-situ measurement. The collaboration between AMAT and Besi on Kinex and SUSS's D2W/W2W platform reflects the trend towards platformization of equipment. As hybrid bonding equipment enters mass production, processes such as cleaning, CMP, and measurement are also expected to benefit from the upgrade of process specifications, making bonding equipment an important node for extending the value of advanced packaging equipment into mid-stream production. In the short term, there is elasticity in TCB orders, while in the medium to long term, there is a focus on the platforming capability of HB. The firm believes that ASMPT has both advanced logic and HBM TCB demand and is extending into Fluxless TCB and HB, providing strong short to medium-term performance elasticity. Besi's products cover FC, TCB, and HB and have a leading advantage in hybrid bonding customers and platforming capabilities, benefiting long-term from the increased penetration of HBM. Hanmi is closely tied to HBM customers and remains a current beneficiary of HBM production expansion. K&S is entering the high-end bonding market with Fluxless TCB, indicating significant room for long-term growth. Risk warnings: Risks of AI downstream demand not meeting expectations; core equipment delivery schedules extending and limiting capacity expansion risks; risks of delays in the adoption of hybrid bonding for HBM; and risks of technological substitution and route differentiation.