Bullish signals are flashing! Bitcoin has once again seen a "golden crossover": $3.8 billion in ETF funds are pouring in, and historical patterns suggest $100,000 by the end of the year?

According to reports, the Bitcoin market has just triggered a bullish signal that is seen as highly symbolic by technical analysts. On September 8, Bitcoin's 50-day exponential moving average officially crossed above the 200-day moving average, forming what cryptocurrency traders refer to as a "Golden Cross." This marks the first occurrence of this technical pattern since November 2025. At the time of the Golden Cross formation, Bitcoin was hovering in a critical range of $78,000 to $80,000. Since mid-August, Bitcoin's price has accumulated an increase of about 25%, having briefly reached a recent high of $81,265 in late August. This has coincided with institutional funds flowing in at an unprecedented rateU.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $3.8 billion in the past three weeks, marking the strongest institutional buying record since 2026. Golden Cross: A Widely Noticed Yet "Uneven" Signal The Golden Cross is one of the oldest technical indicators in financial markets. When a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average, it indicates that recent price momentum has surpassed mid- to long-term trends and is often interpreted as a signal that the market may shift from weakness to strength. However, this signal's historical performance in the Bitcoin market has not always pointed to a one-way bullish trend. Since 2012, Bitcoin has seen a total of 12 Golden Crosses. Among these, the nine that can measure three-month returns averaged an increase of 24.9%, but only three managed to remain intact for a full year without being broken by a "Death Cross" (when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average), with an average one-year increase of 250%. This indicates that while the Golden Cross performs reasonably well over three months, maintaining it for an entire year is the exception rather than the norm. Technical analysts generally acknowledge that because moving averages are smooth calculations based on past prices, this signal typically appears only after the majority of the price movement has occurred, making it inherently a lagging indicator. Nonetheless, the short-term performance of the most recent three Golden Crosses has been quite remarkable: a 50% increase post-September 2021, a 45% increase post-October 2023, and an approximate 60% increase post-October 2024. If we project this historical average three-month increase of 24.9% based on the current range of $79,000 to $80,000, it could point to a price of between $99,000 and $100,000 by the end of the year. USDT Market Dominance "Death Cross": Funds Flowing Back from Stablecoins to Risk Assets What sets this Golden Cross apart is that another key market indicator is simultaneously reinforcing the bullish signalthe USDT market dominance is nearing a "Death Cross," meaning its 50-day moving average is about to cross below the 200-day moving average. The USDT market dominance measures the value of all circulating Tether in relation to the entire cryptocurrency market. A sustained decline in this indicator typically implies an increase in risk appetite: funds are moving out of "cash-like" stablecoins and into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Historically, fluctuations in USDT dominance have often signaled significant trend changes in Bitcoin. This dual signal combinationa Golden Cross in Bitcoin alongside a Death Cross in USDTis seen as more compelling bullish evidence in this round of rebound than relying on a single technical form. The "Ammo" for Institutional Funds: $3.8 Billion ETF Inflows and IBIT's Dominance The funding support driving this round of increases is also noteworthy. In the past three weeks, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $3.8 billion. Notably, there was about $987 million in net inflows during the week ending September 4, with a significant influx of $731 million last Thursday, followed by a slowdown to $175 million on Friday. Funds have been highly concentrated in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). As of September 4, IBIT had net assets of $62.52 billion, accounting for approximately 62% of the total industry size of $101.3 billion. Since its inception in January 2024, IBIT has seen a cumulative net inflow of $63.9 billion, exceeding the total net inflow of $55.5 billion across the entire Bitcoin ETF category. This highly concentrated funding structure implies that when IBIT continues to attract funds, the entire category maintains net inflows; however, once IBIT starts to see outflows, the entire category can shift to net outflows in a single dayas showcased by the $236.5 million outflow recorded on September 1. The marginal demand for ETF funds is increasingly dominated by this single fund, serving as both the engine for growth and a potential amplifier for pullbacks. Headwinds to the Rebound: The $83,000 "Sell Wall" and Macro Economic Headwinds Despite positive signals from both technicals and fund flows, Bitcoin's upward path is not without obstacles. On-chain data indicates that there is a significant sell wall around the $83,000 mark. All sizes of holding addresses have collectively turned into net sellers for the first time since early June, with whales and other holding groups starting to distribute after the recent uptick. Bitcoin faced resistance and retraced each time it attempted to break into the $81,000 to $82,000 range. On the macroeconomic front, pressures are also mounting. U.S. non-farm employment figures for August showed an increase of 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, which has pushed market bets on a Fed rate hike in September to 58%-60%. Strong employment data reduces the rationale for rate cuts, while Bitcoin, as a risk asset, often comes under pressure in a high-interest-rate environment. CoinGlass data shows that the open interest in Bitcoin futures on centralized exchanges is nearing $54.42 billionelevated leverage positions mean that a change in direction could trigger a cascading liquidation. Outlook: Technical "Green Light" vs. Fundamental "Yellow Light" The Golden Cross in Bitcoin and the Death Cross in USDT constitute the most persuasive technical combination in this round of rebound. The $3.8 billion inflow of institutional ETF funds provides tangible financial backing for this signal. However, historical data indicates that the "shelf life" of the Golden Cross is unstableof the 12 signals, only three lasted an entire year. The $83,000 sell wall, rising expectations for Fed rate hikes, and the highly concentrated structure of ETF funds are all significant headwinds to consider in the short term. Technical analysts have marked the current $78,700 region as a key decision point: if the weekly close is above this level, control will revert to buyers; if it falls below again, it could reinforce the argument for further corrections down to $78,700. The upcoming U.S. CPI data on September 11 and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will act as major catalysts determining the short-term direction. While the Golden Cross indicates a technical "green light," the macro fundamentals and market structure are still flashing a "yellow light." In the interplay between signal confirmation and resistance testing, Bitcoin's next journey is far more complicated than a simple crossover pattern.