Pacific Securities: MIXUE GROUP (02097) 26H1 revenue increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with supply chain and brand moats supporting long-term development.

The Pacific Securities has released a research report stating that MIXUE GROUP (02097) achieved revenues of 15.216 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.296 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 4.630 billion yuan. This is the company's first dividend since going public, with a proposed special dividend of approximately 1.006 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of about 44%. The bank believes that MIXUE GROUP's core competitiveness stems from its strong supply chain and brand moat. Based on the company's performance and recent circumstances, the bank has adjusted its profit forecasts, estimating revenues of 34 billion yuan, 37.3 billion yuan, and 40.8 billion yuan for 2026-2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 10%, and 9%; net profits attributable to the parent company are expected to be 5.1 billion yuan, 5.8 billion yuan, and 6.6 billion yuan, with EPS of 13.56 yuan, 15.17 yuan, and 17.34 yuan, corresponding to current price-to-earnings ratios of 13 times, 12 times, and 10 times. The main points from Pacific Securities are as follows: Store expansion tempo actively shifts gears, with a solid foundation in lower-tier markets By business segment, in the first half of 2026, revenue from goods and equipment sales reached 14.798 billion yuan, while franchise and related service revenue reached 418 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.1% and 10.0%, respectively, with franchise service revenue growth outpacing the overall growth. As of the end of the first half of 2026, the total number of stores worldwide reached 63,987, a net increase of 4,164 stores compared to the end of 2025, with 63,951 franchise stores and 36 directly-operated stores. By region, there were 59,609 stores in mainland China and 4,378 overseas, reflecting a net increase of 4,253 stores and a decline of 89 stores, respectively, compared to the end of 2025. The domestic store opening momentum continues, while the overseas markets in Indonesia and Vietnam are undergoing operational adjustments and optimizations, resulting in a temporary contraction in store numbers; simultaneously, the "" brand has newly entered the markets of Mexico, Kyrgyzstan, and Brazil. By city tier, there are 2,906 stores in first-tier cities, 10,696 in new first-tier cities, 11,417 in second-tier cities, and 34,590 in third-tier cities and below, with stores in third-tier cities and below accounting for 58.0%, solidifying advantages in lower-tier markets. Dual cultivation of coffee and fresh beer, with multiple growth points for the second curve Relying on its triple core competitiveness of "supply chain + brand IP + store operations," the company continues to enrich its product categories and promote platform development. The sub-brand "Lucky Coffee" has upgraded around "fresh beans, fresh milk, fresh fruit, and on-site production," with approximately 50% of stores introducing low-temperature fresh milk, while the HPP process fresh fruit series saw over one million cups sold in its first week. The coffee brewing method has been upgraded from "fresh infusion" to "freshly ground," with fully automatic coffee machines now covering over 3,000 stores. The company completed a strategic acquisition of the "Fresh Beer Fortune Deer Family" brand in 2025, extending its product line to freshly tapped beer, building a diversified product matrix that includes fruit beer, tea beer, and milk beer. In addition, the company has launched its ninth generation of store formats, with flagship stores now covering 26 cities in China, improving store operation quality and efficiency. Quality upgrades, supported by supply chain barriers ensuring long-term resilience In the first half of 2026, the company's gross profit margin was 30.4%, with strategic investments further enhancing product quality centered around the "true, fresh, pure" product concept. The company's core beverage ingredients are 100% self-produced, with a digital procurement network covering the globe, creating solid supply chain barriers to support long-term development. On the expense side, the rates of sales and distribution expenses, administrative expenses, and R&D expenses were 7.4%, 4.0%, and 0.3%, respectively, an increase of 1.2 percentage points, 1.1 percentage points, and flat year-on-year, with the increase in expense ratios mainly due to brand IP development, store operation support, and rising labor costs. Overall, the net profit margin attributable to the parent company in the first half of 2026 was 15.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0 percentage points. Risk warnings: food safety risks, slower-than-expected store expansion, and intensified industry competition risks.