Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | London Copper Hits Historical Highs, UBS: Copper Prices May Rise to $15,500 in the Future (with Concept Stocks)

On Monday, the three-month copper futures price on the London Metal Exchange briefly hit $14,533 per ton, setting a new historical high. Analysts point out that the market anticipates the U.S. may impose new import tariffs on refined copper, prompting traders to preemptively ship copper to the U.S., which has tightened copper supply outside the country and driven global copper prices upward. Since the beginning of this year, copper prices have risen by about 17%, with a staggering increase of 47% over the past 12 months. Cristin Cifuentes, a senior analyst at the Chilean Copper Industry Research Center (Cesco), stated that this round of price movement is "more driven by metal transfer caused by tariffs rather than strong terminal demand," essentially indicating a "localized shortage rather than a global oversupply." The U.S. has accumulated substantial copper inventories, resulting in the copper price on the New York Mercantile Exchange maintaining a long-term premium over that in London, with the price difference between the two markets widening to $400 to $500 per ton for May 2026 contracts. Attracted by inter-market arbitrage opportunities, traders have accelerated the withdrawal of LME-registered warehouse receipts and transportation to the U.S. The import volume of refined copper to the U.S. soared to about 1.4 million tons for the entirety of 2025, nearly 800,000 tons more than in a typical year; in July 2026 alone, approximately 200,000 tons of copper metal arrived in the U.S., marking the largest monthly inflow since statistics began in 2014. Global copper supply from mines may see its first annual decline since 2017. Due to declining grades at large mines, maintenance, slow ramp-up of projects, and operational constraints, Chile's copper production in the first half of this year was 2.481 million tons, a 6.7% decrease year-on-year. The latest forecast from the Chilean National Copper Corporation (Cochilco) shows that Chilean copper production is expected to decrease by 2.6% year-on-year to 5.27 million tons in 2026, further down from the 5.3 million tons forecast released in May this year. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has also revised its global copper mine production growth forecast for 2026 from 2.3% to 1.6%. Pacific Securities estimates that the global copper supply-demand gap for 2026 to 2028 will be 40,000 tons, 350,000 tons, and 430,000 tons, respectively, showing a strong supply-demand balance in the copper market, with supply growth expected to lag behind demand growth. UBS predicts that copper prices will reach $15,500 per ton in the coming quarters. Tianfeng notes that the recent rise in copper prices to historic highs is the result of multiple factors converging, including disruptions at the mining level, inventory destocking, and a weaker dollar, rather than solely driven by demand recovery. In the short term, the core variables to observe are Chilean mining production, copper concentrate export policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and global inventory changes; in the medium to long term, factors such as global mine aging, the lengthy ramp-up period for new mines, along with ongoing demand from AI computing, power grids, and new energy, are expected to maintain a tight balance in copper supply and demand. Related concept stocks: CHINFMINING (01258): The company expects a total copper production of approximately 484,000 tons in 2026, including about 134,000 tons of cathode copper and approximately 350,000 tons of crude/anode copper. Due to the planned maintenance impacts on Qambi's copper smelting and Luara's copper smelting, the crude/anode copper output will decrease. For the year, the company expects to produce about 155,000 tons of copper from its own mines; produce about 900,000 tons of sulfuric acid; produce about 100,000 tons of liquid sulfur dioxide; and produce about 600 tons of cobalt hydroxide. JIANGXI COPPER (00358): Jiangxi Copper, as a leading copper smelting company in China, has an annual production capacity of 2.1 million tons of cathode copper, with copper business revenue accounting for over 70%. CMOC Group Limited (03993): CMOC Group Limited is a leading "mining + trading" company globally, with significant production in tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and molybdenum, and is also an important copper and phosphate fertilizer producer, ranking among the top three global base metal traders. The company currently holds 80% of TFM, one of the world's largest and highest-grade copper-cobalt mines in production; it holds 71.25% of KFM, a world-class greenfield copper-cobalt mine.