UBS: Macau's gambling revenue at the beginning of September aligns with seasonal trends, and the number of hotel bookings for the National Day Golden Week has decreased by 5 compared to last year.

UBS Group AG released a research report stating that, according to its channel survey, the average daily gambling revenue in Macau over the past six days was approximately 633 million Macanese patacas, an increase of about 4% year-on-year, but a decline compared to the average daily revenue of approximately 706 million Macanese patacas in August. Compared to the seasonality observed from 2015 to 2019, which experienced a sequential decline of about 5%, the recent trends in gambling revenue are generally in line with seasonal patterns. By market segment, the average daily gaming revenue from the mass market decreased by 10% to 12% sequentially, while the average daily betting volume in VIP rooms fell by 8% to 10%, with the VIP win rate ranging between 3% and 3.3%. Based on data from 31 hotels tracked by UBS Group AG, the number of fully booked hotels for the upcoming National Day Golden Week (October 1 to 7) is expected to decrease by 5 compared to the previous year, and the average room price for comparable hotels during the same period is anticipated to decline by 22% year-on-year. The market generally expects that the average daily gambling revenue for September will be around 650 million to 670 million Macanese patacas, a year-on-year increase of 7% to 10%, but a sequential drop of 5% to 8%. Currently, the valuation of Macau gaming stocks corresponds to an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 8.7 times for the year 2026 forecast, which is 0.5 standard deviations lower than the average level since 2023. The bank's top picks are Sands China (01928), GALAXY ENT (00027), and Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO.US).