Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. issued a "neutral" signal for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US): The cost advantage of the Cybercab is significant, but the scalability of the software is the key to valuation.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. recently released a research report on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), maintaining a "Neutral" rating with a 12-month target price of $360. The firm believes that Tesla, Inc. is likely to establish a significant cost advantage in the autonomous taxi market through its Cybercab, but the scalability of its autonomous driving software is the core variable determining its business outlook and valuation potential. Cybercab officially hits the road, with unsupervised mileage surpassing one million miles On September 3, local time, Tesla, Inc. held a launch event in Austin, Texas, officially introducing the autonomous taxi Cybercab and announcing the start of paid ride services in a designated area of Austin. The model eliminates traditional manual control devices such as the steering wheel, brake pedal, accelerator pedal, and rearview mirrors, featuring a dual-seat layout designed specifically for fully autonomous driving scenarios. Tesla, Inc. also announced that its Robotaxi fleet's accumulated "unsupervised" mileage has exceeded one million miles. According to data from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, as of September 3, 420 autonomous vehicles were registered in Texas under Tesla, Inc., of which 45 were Cybercabs. However, just hours after the event, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced that it would initiate a compliance review for approximately 1,000 Cybercabs, focusing on whether Tesla, Inc.s self-certification process and technical basis for the model conform to federal motor vehicle safety standards. As a result, Tesla, Inc. shares plummeted 5.92% to close at $354.08 on September 4, resulting in a one-day market value loss of about $88 billion. The previous trading day, the stock had surged 5.42% due to the Cybercab launch. Ashok Elluswamy, head of Tesla, Inc.s artificial intelligence department, later confirmed that the Robotaxi service is expected to achieve 24/7 operation around October after the next round of technical integration for FSD v15 is completed. FSD v15 is described by Tesla, Inc. as a "structural leap," with model parameters approximately ten times larger than the current version and seven parallel improvement pathways. Currently, the Robotaxi service is in regular operation in six U.S. cities (Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa), with service hours from 6 AM to 10 PM. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: Software is the key to scalability Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. pointed out in the report that Tesla, Inc.s focus on creating low-cost vehicles, backed by its integrated manufacturing processes and pure visual perception system, is expected to enhance the economic viability of its Robotaxi business. If Tesla, Inc. can control the Cybercab's production cost within the target range of $20,000 to $30,000 during mass production, it could achieve a cost advantage of $0.05 to $0.30 per mile compared to earlier autonomous driving competitors with costs ranging from $50,000 to $100,000. Industry estimates suggest that the cost of a Cybercab is approximately $23,000 to $25,000, while the cost of a Waymo vehicle ranges from $70,000 to $150,000. However, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. also emphasized that for investors, the bigger uncertainty lies in whether Tesla, Inc.s artificial intelligence solutions can support the rapid geographical scaling of its autonomous driving software. Broader operational coverage would generate more revenue while distributing the vehicle cost base over a greater mileage, making the economics of the software a more critical component of the Robotaxi profitability model than the price of the vehicle itself. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.s scenario analysis indicates that in an optimistic scenario, Tesla, Inc.s stock price could reach $500, while in a pessimistic scenario, it might drop to around $150. Major downside risks include a slowdown in electric vehicle demand, intensified competition, tariff pressures, delays in the rollout of FSD and other products, and operational and margin pressures. Market sentiment regarding Tesla, Inc. remains divided. According to LSEG statistics, there are currently 24 analysts giving Tesla, Inc. a "Buy" or higher rating, 23 giving a "Hold" rating, and another 7 maintaining "Sell" or lower ratings. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson reiterated a "Sell" rating after the Cybercab launch, with a target price of only $24.86, arguing that Tesla, Inc.s current P/E ratio is as high as 328 times, indicating severe market overvaluation. Morgan Stanley maintains a "Hold" rating with a target price of $400. StoneX, however, reaffirmed a "Buy" rating with a target price of $475 after the Cybercab launch.