The first major test after the Cook era! Morgan Stanley: Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) Fall Launch Event is the most important in a decade. The first foldable iPhone could spark a new wave of growth.

Morgan Stanley analysts have stated that the upcoming fall product launch event "Surprise and Shine" for Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) on September 9 may become the company's most significant product launch in nearly a decade. In a report to investors led by analyst Erik Woodring, the Morgan Stanley analyst team noted, "Apple Inc.'s 'Surprise and Shine' event on Wednesday is expected to follow a very similar format to previous yearsapproximately 90 minutes of presentations introducing the latest devices from Apple Inc., including the Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4, AirPods 5, iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max, and most importantly, the company's first foldable iPhone." He added, "However, this event will be anything but a typical product launch. For the first time in 15 years, Cook will not be the main presenter; instead, the new CEO, Turnus, will lead the company in introducing a significant change in iPhone product form factors, officially launching the highly anticipated foldable iPhone. At the same time, Apple Inc. may also implement the largest and broadest price increase for iPhones with the same specifications in the company's history." If the first foldable phone from Apple Inc. receives a positive response from consumers, it could make a considerable contribution to revenues for the December quarter. Analysts pointed out, "We currently expect Apple Inc. to ship approximately 6.5 million foldable iPhones in the December quarter, corresponding to around $14 billion in revenue, which would account for 16% of the total iPhone revenue in the December quarter." Analysts stated, "In addition to the short-term financial contribution, it will be interesting to observe how Apple Inc. leverages the larger product form factor, and whether it can provide better user experiences in scenarios involving foldable devices, rather than just offering a larger screenmost importantly, what the real-life experience of holding this device will be like. If consumer feedback is strong, we believe the ultimate scale of this product category may exceed the levels currently implied by supply chain forecasts." Another key issue to watch is how consumers will react to the price increases across the new iPhone lineup. Morgan Stanley expects that the price increase for the iPhone Pro series under similar configurations will range between $200 and $500. The firm anticipates that the starting price for the 512GB version of the foldable iPhone will reach $2,399, while the 2TB version will be priced at $3,199. Analysts noted, "With the significant rise in NAND and DRAM costs, we still expect Apple Inc. to raise the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max by $200, and the increases for higher storage capacity versions may be even larger." "According to our forecasts for Apple Inc.'s memory costs, such pricing strategies will enable Apple Inc. to maintain an approximately 40% gross margin on iPhones, roughly consistent with the average of 39.9% during FY21 to FY25."