Anthropic is expected to surpass SpaceX and claim the IPO throne! However, it must convert AI growth into Microsoft-level profit margins.

Anthropic is expected to surpass SpaceX (SPCX.US) with the largest stock offering in history, but PitchBook analysts warn that this AI giant may need to achieve a gross margin level of about 70%, similar to that of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), to support its massive computing commitments. To break SpaceX's IPO record, Anthropic's issuance valuation needs to exceed $1.8 trillion, and the fundraising scale must surpass SpaceX's $86 billion, including the over-allotment option, rather than merely matching its private placement valuation of $965 billion. Anthropic records an "unprecedented" profit milestone in the AI industry PitchBook senior analyst Harrison Rolfes stated that the adjusted operating profit reported by Anthropic is "unprecedented among AI companies." Second-quarter revenue surged to over $11.5 billion from $4.73 billion in the first quarter and $787 million in the same period last year. Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate exceeded $65 billion in July, equivalent to $5.4 billion per month, seven times that of the same period last year. Rolfes noted that this figure represents about one-third of Anthropic's projected revenue for 2028, indicating that the company may be progressing as planned, although the run rate does not guarantee future sales. Investors currently still lack audited GAAP earnings, cash flow, gross margin, and customer concentration data, which are expected to be disclosed in Anthropic's S-1 registration statement. Anthropic's $80 billion computing gamble Meanwhile, reports suggest that Anthropic has committed $35 billion to Lambda, an investment by NVIDIA Corporation, for a 350 MW data center capacity developed by Hut 8 (HUT.US); previously, the company also reached another $45 billion computing agreement in West Virginia with Nscale. In light of these massive commitments, Rolfes estimates that Anthropic's gross margin is around 44%, significantly lower than the roughly 70% level of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) and ServiceNow (NOW.US). "This number appears realistic but is not sufficient to compete with SaaS companies. It's also not attractive enough for public market investors, as we know Anthropic has extensive commitments extending to 2030-32," he said. "To support these commitments, you need to raise the gross margin to about 70%." Claude Code drives Anthropic's growth "Claude Code is the biggest catalyst," Rolfes noted, highlighting that this coding tool had already surpassed a $2.5 billion annual revenue run rate in February. Enterprise customers account for 80% of Anthropic's revenue, with over 1,000 customers having annual expenditures exceeding $1 million as of April. Rolfes mentioned that Claude is entering "production-grade API workflows" rather than being limited to "isolated experiments." However, it remains unclear how much of the revenue is secured by contracts. "It appears to have repeatability but is not necessarily contractual," he said, adding that investors need more information about retention rates, contract durations, and committed usage levels. Rolfes also anticipates that Anthropic will gradually move away from the subscription model and ultimately transition to a pay-per-task system, making it easier for enterprises to predict costs. "Anthropic needs to find a way to build a sustainable revenue model that is easy to track," he said. Anthropic deepens its enterprise AI layout Last week, Anthropic expanded its partnership with Salesforce (CRM), launching Claudeforcea Claude plugin offering 37 pre-built sales skills. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff called it an "industry first," representing "the way all business systems will operate in the future." The company also removed the controversial 30-day data retention requirement (for commercial customers) after receiving "a lot of feedback." The alternative "Enterprise Frontier Safeguards" will allow enterprises to control how their data is reviewed, stored, and monitored without manual review by Anthropic. How do retail investors view Anthropic and SpaceX? On the Stocktwits platform, retail sentiment toward Anthropic is "bullish," with message volume at a "high" level; sentiment toward SpaceX is "bearish," with discussion intensity at an "extremely low" level.