Trump locks in massive oil from Venezuela! Experts pour cold water: All gas stations in the U.S. will still see "the most expensive Labor Day in history."

Energy industry experts have stated that American drivers are unlikely to see a drop in oil prices due to the hefty oil agreement reached between U.S. President Trump and Venezuela, as significantly boosting the country's production will take years. Last Friday, Trump announced that the U.S. had gained control over Venezuela's confirmed oil reserves of 65 billion barrels, which accounts for about 20% of the estimated total reserves of 303 billion barrels in the South American country. However, experts indicated that extracting these reserves requires substantial investment. Additionally, since the Trump administration has yet to disclose the specific terms of the agreement, there is uncertainty about its legality and long-term viability with Caracas (the capital of Venezuela). David Goldwyn, who served as the State Departments Special Envoy for International Energy Affairs during President Barack Obamas administration, said, No substantive content has been announced yet, so we are actually still judging based on X platform and rumors. On Friday, Trump promised that the agreement would significantly lower gas prices for all Americans for a long time to come. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average gas price on Monday was $4.08 per gallon, nearly 30% higher than the same time last year. Oil prices have been rising due to attacks on Russian refineries in Ukraine and supply disruptions in the Middle East caused by the war in Iran. Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, stated that gas prices during Labor Day have essentially set a new historical high. DeHaan noted that the previous highest record for Labor Day was $3.83 per gallon in 2012. Unless theres a miraculous 20-cent drop per gallonwhich is nearly impossiblethis will be a record-setting Labor Day considering the national average, DeHaan said. Unfortunately, at this late time of year, gas prices have never been this high. Venezuelan oil exports will not bring any short-term relief to American drivers. After years of mismanagement under a socialist government, the countrys oil infrastructure is in shambles. Venezuela's current production is about 1.2 million barrels per day, far below its peak of 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s. Rystad Energy estimated in January that to restore Venezuela's production to peak levels, approximately $180 billion in investment would be needed before 2040. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated last Friday that Trumps agreement would bring nearly $100 billion in private sector investment to the country. Goldwyn expressed that this will absolutely have no impact on gas prices or Venezuelan oil in the next few years. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, stated that it is currently unclear which oil companies would invest in Venezuela to extract its reserves, and how these deals would be structured. Chevron is currently the only major U.S. oil company active in the country, operating through a joint venture with the state-run Petrleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA). Chevron's CFO Emil K. Bourn stated during the company's earnings call on July 31 that Chevron's production in Venezuela has increased by 15% this year to 280,000 barrels per day. Bourn indicated that the oil giant expects to increase production by as much as 50% by 2028, suggesting that in about two years, Chevron's production in Venezuela could reach around 400,000 barrels per day. However, Lipow pointed out that production growth in Venezuela will face constraints from export terminal limitations. The analyst noted that due to aging infrastructure and challenges caused by power outages affecting ports, tankers can wait up to 30 days to load crude oil shipments from Venezuela. Goldwyn indicated that these terminals must be expanded to handle more production. He stated, It is unclear who will take over that project. Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodrguez stated on Saturday that the 25-year agreement would develop 17 oil fields, initially boosting production to 1.5 million barrels per day. According to a list submitted to Reuters, most of these oil reserves are located within eight blocks of the Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt, while the remainder is in the Lake Maracaibo region. Goldwyn noted that the oil fields in the Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt have little to no infrastructure available. He remarked, At best, those oil fields will take five to seven years to deliver additional production to the market. Moreover, there remains significant uncertainty about whether the agreement has long-term viability. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Consulting, indicated that the agreement faces significant political risks in Washington and Caracas. McNally stated that if a Democratic president takes office in 2029, it is likely that the agreement will be re-evaluated or terminated. He pointed out that even if the Republican Party wins the next presidential election, a future Venezuelan government could just as easily tear up the agreement, as Caracas has done in the past. McNally explained that if everything goes well in the coming decades, Venezuela's oil could provide a significant and much-needed supply. However, he added, when it comes to gas station prices, this is by no means a primary influencing factor in the short term.