CICC: Glass substrates are expected to become an important material platform for the next generation of advanced packaging, with related core equipment sectors likely to benefit first.

CICC released a research report stating that as AI large chip packaging dimensions upgrade, glass substrates are expected to become an important material platform for the next generation of advanced packaging, with related core equipment segments likely to benefit first. On the equipment side, two core investment paths are recommended: 1) Focus on core incremental segments: TGV equipment, which features high-precision and high-density through-holes on glass panels. Compared to TSV, this process eliminates the insulation layer and reduces high-speed signal loss; 2) Suggest paying attention to high-value, high-tech barrier equipment with low domestic production rates that are tailored to the characteristics of glass and board-level packaging, such as PVD, electroplating, exposure, and inspection processes. CICC's main viewpoints are as follows: Glass substrates are in the "from 0 to 1" stage, with advanced packaging as the core scenario and high growth potential. As AI computing power chips evolve to larger sizes and higher densities, the traditional CoWoS path faces challenges such as high costs, difficulty in warpage control, and bottlenecks in yield for larger sizes. Due to their low thermal expansion coefficient and low dielectric constant, glass substrates can be used for temporary carriers, glass core substrates, and glass intermediate layers. Leading global manufacturers are generally in the pilot line construction, sample testing, and customer validation stages, and the firm estimates that 2027-2028 will be a key milestone for small-scale commercial use. At the same time, glass substrates are opening up in the fields of CPO optoelectronic integration, consumer electronics, and communications, offering vast growth potential. The cumulative equipment market space for glass substrates is nearly 50 billion yuan by 2030, with a long-term penetration rate potentially reaching 100 billion yuan. On the materials side, the firm estimates that by 2030, the market space for CoPoS Panel for glass intermediate layers will be 9.4 billion yuan, and the market space for glass motherboards used as glass core substrates will be 41.5 billion yuan; the cumulative market space for equipment by 2030 is approximately 48.9 billion yuan; as the penetration rate of glass substrates increases, the long-term equipment space is expected to reach the 100 billion yuan level. On the equipment side, two core investment paths are recommended: 1) Focus on core incremental segments: TGV equipment, featuring high-precision and high-density through-holes on glass panels. Compared to TSV, this process eliminates the insulation layer and reduces high-speed signal loss; 2) Suggest paying attention to high-value, high-tech barrier equipment with low domestic production rates tailored to the characteristics of glass and board-level packaging, such as PVD, electroplating, exposure, and inspection processes. Among these, the PVD and electroplating segments are relatively complex, accounting for about 40% of production line investment. The barriers in electroplating are high, and potential voids can significantly affect substrate yield, with the overall domestic production rate remaining relatively low. Risk warnings: the risk of industrialization progress not meeting expectations; the risk of downstream demand not meeting expectations.