Anthropic throws out a $30 trillion TAM "super narrative," sprinting towards a $2 trillion IPO with "rocket-like growth."

According to reports, the artificial intelligence company Anthropic is expected to inform investors that its total addressable market (TAM) exceeds $30 trillion, surpassing SpaceX's previous estimate of $28.5 trillion. TAM refers to the annual revenue potential that can be achieved when a product or service captures 100% of the market share in its relevant market. Reports cite informed sources stating that when quantifying its TAM, Anthropic is focusing on the full range of tasks that can be accomplished through AI models. The company has not immediately responded to requests for comments. The enormous TAM helps support Anthropic's valuation and substantial infrastructure investment, while also guiding product priorities, outlining its competitive landscape with OpenAI and Google, and anchoring the growth story behind its planned initial public offering (IPO). Supporting this valuation is Anthropic's rocket-like revenue growth. Internal documents accessed by investors reveal that the company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) is expected to reach approximately $9 billion by the end of 2025; $14 billion by February 2026; over $30 billion by April; climbing to $47 billion in May; and exceeding $60 billion by July. The revenue for the second quarter of 2026 alone is projected to exceed $11.5 billion, roughly 14 times the $787 million recorded in the same period the previous year. More importantly, adjusted operating profit for the second quarter is expected to reach $559 millionmarking the first time a leading large model company has achieved operating profit in a single quarter. Tech giants have already invested heavily. Google has invested approximately $3 billion in total, with a book value exceeding $124 billion by October 2025, yielding about a 40-fold return. Amazon has invested over $13 billion and reached a decade-long deep computing partnership with Anthropic. Microsoft and Nvidia have also joined in with their investments. In the latest financing round, storage giants such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix also participated. Reports indicate that Anthropic is set to go public as early as October of this year, with a target valuation starting at $2 trillion, and some investors expect it could reach as high as $3 trillion. If it achieves a $2 trillion valuation, it would surpass SpaceX's IPO record of $1.77 trillion set in June, becoming the largest IPO in commercial history. To achieve this ambitious goal, Wall Street investment banks are employing an unusual "forward valuation" strategybypassing current performance and pricing directly based on Anthropic's projected revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion anticipated for 2028. This practice has been seen in other rapidly growing companies recently: Cerebras Systems referenced 2028 revenue expectations for its IPO valuation, while SpaceX's revenue forecasts extended to 2029. In the IPO documents submitted by SpaceX in May, the company stated that it has identified "the largest actionable TAM in human history," attributing much of it to AI technology. Additionally, according to reports earlier this month, the developer of a chatbot named Claude, Siasun Robot & Automation, anticipates revenues of approximately $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028, with its IPO valuation depending on the aforementioned performance predictions. However, the $30 trillion TAM figure put forth by Anthropic has raised skepticism in the market. As AI may reshape numerous industries, predicting its long-term impacts is exceedingly difficult. Relevant estimates heavily rely on industry data and investment bank models, which are inherently based on considerable assumptions. David Merkel, head of investment firm Aleph Investments, offered a representative comment: "Is it possible for Anthropic to achieve a $2 trillion valuation? It certainly could be. But Im just curious whether that valuation can hold steady moving forward. Can AI really bring about such massive improvements in productivity?"