A hundred billion dollars in liberation cannot crush the followers of Musk! SpaceX (SPCX.US) stock price crosses the supply test, and smart money uses options to indicate the "bottom-fishing moment."

Bullish believers in SpaceX (SPCX.US), the American super tech giant founded by Elon Musk that focuses on AI + space exploration, are trying a new trading approach in the options market. After the company went public in June and saw its stock price drop below its offering price, SpaceX's stock price successfully passed a crucial test for unrestricted sell-offs on Thursday, leading professional traders to actively bet that a bottom may have formed and that a prime opportunity for bargain buying could be on the horizon. The probability of SpaceX establishing a phase bottom has indeed significantly risen; however, some analysts caution that it cannot yet be characterized as "capital consistently confirming a new upward trend." The first batch of 911.5 million shares under lock-up restrictions became tradable, increasing the available shares to approximately 1.55 billion, which constitutes a potential supply shock worth nearly $100 billion. Nevertheless, on the day of the lock-up expiration, the stock price actually rose by 6.14% to $114.92, with a total trading volume of about 255 million shares, indicating that Wednesdays 13.6% plunge after the earnings report had already released a considerable portion of the lock-up, capital expenditure, and profit-taking pressure, with new selling effectively absorbed by bottom-feeding capital and short covering. This is a typical "bad news doesn't cause a drop" signal: it demonstrates strong marginal support around the $105-$110 range, but it is still insufficient to prove that long-term supply pressure has ended, as there will still be multiple phases of large shareholder lock-up releases, and the stock price remains below the IPO price of $135. Sentiment surrounding SpaceX's bottoming is also nested within the rapid recovery of overall risk appetite in the U.S. stock market: daily transactions of bullish options on the S&P 500 surpassed 4 million for a record high, showing that investors' concerns about missing out have grown more than their caution against potential pullbacks. After a significant deleveraging experience in the crowded tech stocks, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. recorded the largest single-week net buying in the U.S. stock market since November 2020, primarily driven by short covering. As the world's richest person to date, Musk has previously accomplished what others deemed impossibledeveloping a commercially viable high-frequency rocket launch business through SpaceX, making electric vehicles mainstream through Tesla, Inc., and providing internet connectivity infrastructure from space through Starlink. However, some investors remain skeptical about whether Musk can truly execute his "most epic" chip-making initiative in Austin and whether he can achieve his vision of widespread penetration of AI technology, autonomous driving, humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, and the super blueprint for space AI data centers. Sell Put + Buy Call to bet on the bottom! Risk reversal trades heavily wager on SpaceX bottoming To date, the capital flows in SpaceX options have been primarily dominated by out-of-the-money call buying, but on Thursday, the most popular directional tradesdespite a slight advantagesuddenly evolved into selling put options. According to SpotGamma statistics, of the $600 million in options premiums traded by midday on Thursday, $316 million came from put options, with about $166 million likely related to selling put options. This still reflects a bullish options outlook, but more focused on betting that the stock price has stabilized and bottomed rather than expecting a significant upward move. Most of Thursday's options trading volume was roughly equally divided between put and call options, but the two largest transactions by dollar amount that day were both around call option combinations: selling millions of dollars worth of put options while simultaneously buying call options. This structure is known as options trading betting on risk reversal, creating dual bullish exposure by selling puts and buying calls. Shortly after the opening bell, a professional institutional trader seemed to sell put options worth $12 million with a strike price of $90 expiring in June next year, then bought call options valued at $4.3 million with a strike price of $220 and the same expiration date, ultimately netting $7.7 million in premiums. This is essentially a bet that SpaceX's stock price will not significantly drop by an additional 20% over the next ten months, while betting that there is a chance for the stock price to double. Later in the afternoon, a smaller trade with the same structure was executed: a trader sold put options worth $3.5 million with a strike price of $75 and an expiration date of January 2028, then bought an equal amount of call options at a strike price of $185 with the same expiration date. This time, the call options were valued at $5 million, significantly higher than the premiums received from the sold put options, resulting in a net cash outlay for the trade. Since the launch of SpaceX options, consistent buying of call options has been a contrary indicator; however, the two large trades mentioned, amplifying clear bullish intent and involving the selling of optionsselling options is a long-preferred strategy for well-capitalized hedge fund tradersindicate that most professional traders believe the stock could be forming a significant bottom. A quick look at the stock price chart also shows some major evidence from a technical standpoint. SpaceX's stock price hit a new low on Mondaythe day before the company announced its earningsbut has traded around the $110 mark for most of the time since July 23. Downward momentum has slowed, and the crucial 14-day Relative Strength Index (14-day RSI) established its bottom at the end of last month, while implied volatility dropped to its lowest level since June 30. Moreover, on the same day that the first insiders' lock-up period ended, SpaceX's stock price still rose; many investors had previously believed that this event would trigger a new round of large-scale selling and a drop in SpaceX's stock. SpaceX passes supply pressure test, smart money begins betting on reversal trades Overall, combining signals from stock drop levels, options, and sell-side research, the probability of SpaceX forming a phase bottom has increased significantly, but it does not mean "capital consistently confirms a new upward trend." The first batch of 911.5 million shares under lock-up restrictions became tradable again, increasing the available shares to approximately 1.55 billion, constituting a potential supply shock valued at nearly $100 billion. However, on the day of the lock-up expiration, the stock price rose 6.14% to $114.92, with a trading volume of about 255 million shares, highlighting that Wednesday's 13.6% drop following the earnings report had already released a significant portion of the lock-up, capital expenditure, and profit-taking pressure, while the new selling was effectively absorbed by bargain-buying capital and short covering, strongly demonstrating the presence of robust marginal buying power around the $105-$110 range. The capital flows in options are undoubtedly more informative than simply buying out-of-the-money calls. On that day, approximately $600 million in premiums traded, of which about $166 million may have originated from selling put options; the two large risk reversal trades involved selling puts below + buying calls above, positioning capital on both limited downside and retaining significant upside potential. Selling June 2027 $90 puts and buying $220 calls is essentially committing to buy around the $90 mark, betting that the stock price could potentially double; such strategies are typically closer to institutional probability distribution trading than retail chasing high-strike calls. From a technical perspective, combined with the 14-day RSI hitting bottom, declining implied volatility, and an upward response on the lock-up expiration day, professional hedge fund traders seem to be switching from chasing upside tails to selling downside panic, building an asymmetric long, signaling that the market is starting to trade in the bottom range rather than just one short-term bounce. Sell-side reports provide a fundamental support for this bottom trade. SpaceX's second-quarter revenue surged 92% year-over-year to $7.814 billion, with adjusted EBITDA growing 191% to $3.538 billion; AI revenue saw a year-on-year increase of 247% to $2.561 billion, with AI computing power expanding from 0.4 gigawatts in the same period last year to 1.4 gigawatts, and it secured $14.1 billion in cloud service contracts. However, this corresponds to a total capital expenditure in a single quarter amounting to $18.369 billion, of which $15.828 billion was for AI, far exceeding the AI-related revenue in that quarter, resulting in a net loss of $541 million. Following SpaceX's earnings release, Wall Street financial giants JPMorgan raised their target price from $225 to $240, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. to $220 and Morgan Stanley maintained it at $300, reflecting an upward revision of the long-term terminal value for Starlink, AI cloud computing power, and vertical integration, but it does not imply Wall Street dismisses short-term free cash flow and financing pressures. The sentiment around SpaceX's bottom is also intertwined with the rapid recovery of overall risk appetite in the U.S. stock market: daily trading volume of bullish options on the S&P 500 exceeded 4 million, reaching a record high, indicating that investors' growing concern over missing out exceeds their caution against potential pullbacks; after a significant deleveraging process in crowded tech stocks, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. trading desks recorded the largest single-week net buying in the U.S. stock market since November 2020, primarily driven by short covering. Therefore, the current macro liquidity environment is particularly favorable for SpaceX, which has a high sensitivity to short positions and optionsan increase in the stock price forces shorts to buy back shares, while market makers continue to buy to hedge their call exposure, resulting in a reflexive upward movement. However, this also means that the current rebound contains a considerable proportion of mechanical covering and FOMO funds, not entirely representing stable long-term institutional reallocation; if the index risk appetite weakens, questions about AI capital expenditure resurface, or the next round of lock-up supplies exceeds expectations, this liquidity-driven momentum could quickly reverse. When investors heavily buy call options, the market makers assuming the counterparty often find themselves in a position of selling calls, or being short calls. Short calls have negative Delta: assuming a standard stock option corresponds to 100 shares, if a call has a Delta of 0.40, then after the market maker sells one, they will bear directional risk equivalent to being short 40 shares. To maintain Delta neutrality, the market maker will buy about 40 shares of the underlying stock for hedging. A study from OIC clearly indicates that negative Delta positions typically require hedging by purchasing the underlying stock, and standard stock options generally correspond to 100 shares. The key is that, after a price increase, the Delta of calls will typically continue to increase. This can create a reflexive chain: investors buy callsmarket makers sell calls and buy stocks for hedgingstock prices risecall Delta increasesmarket makers buy more stocksfurther increases in stock prices. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as a Gamma squeeze. It is most pronounced when options are large in size, market makers are net short Gamma, calls are near-the-money, expiration is relatively short, and stock prices rapidly approach the strike price. In the view of some seasoned analysts, SpaceX's strong rise of over 6% on Thursday indicates it has passed its first supply pressure test, and evidence is accumulating for the formation of a tactical bottom, having entered the early stage of bottom buildingpotential reversal, although a mid-term upward trend has not yet been formally confirmed. The real confirmation conditions include continuously holding around the $105-$110 support area, regaining the $135 IPO price with increased volume, future lock-ups not creating new lows, and AI computing power contract revenues catching up with capital expenditures and improving free cash flow. Until these conditions are met, selling put options and executing risk reversals reflect that downside odds have improved, but not equivalent to the upward path is confirmed.