The U.S. job market remains resilient! Last week's initial jobless claims stayed at a low level as the market focuses on the July non-farm payroll report.

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. remained essentially unchanged last week, marking the third consecutive week below 200,000 and highlighting the resilience of the U.S. labor market. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 rose slightly to 199,000, below the market's general expectation of 202,000. The number of continuing claims for the week ending July 25 was 1.801 million, higher than the previous figure of 1.782 million and the market's general expectation of 1.790 million. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 fell to 198,800, the lowest level since September 2022. After rising at the end of May and early June, initial jobless claims have retreated. Most economists believe that the earlier increase was noise. Despite a significant slowdown in non-farm employment growth in June and downward revisions of the April and May non-farm employment data, economists state that there has not been a substantial change in the labor market, which remains in a state of "slow hiring, slow layoffs." Currently, market attention has shifted to the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for July, set to be released on Friday. The market generally expects that the non-farm payrolls will add 83,000 jobs in July, with the unemployment rate likely remaining at a low of 4.2%. The strength or weakness of this latest non-farm employment data will influence whether the Federal Reserve takes a "wait-and-see" approach or continues to raise interest rates in September. Notably, on Wednesday evening, the U.S. ADP employment data for July was released firstshowing that private-sector employment increased by only 44,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 70,000; the previous figure was also revised down from 98,000 to 95,000. As a "little non-farm," ADP data is typically viewed as a leading indicator of non-farm employment. The significant shortfall in the July ADP data has heightened market expectations for a cooling labor market. Although hiring has slowed, the report indicates that wage growth for job switchers has accelerated to its highest level in nearly a year. Supported by strong demand from businesses and consumers, the U.S. labor market remains stable. If the non-farm employment report for July confirms this trend, the recent employment trajectory suggests that Federal Reserve officials may continue to focus on the persistently high levels of inflation.