CITIC SEC: Kuaishou (01024) subsidiary Keling's revenue compound annual growth rate may reach 104% over the next five years.

CITIC SEC recently released a research report stating that KeLing, as Kuaishou's (01024) globally leading AI video generation model, has become a core variable influencing Kuaishou's valuation. With continuous iteration of model capabilities and expansion of application scenarios, it is expected that KeLing's revenue compound annual growth rate will reach 104% from 2025 to 2030, with revenue anticipated to approach 40 billion yuan by 2030. The research report forecasts that KeLing's revenue will grow from approximately 1.1 billion yuan in 2025 to around 3.5 billion yuan in 2026, and will further reach approximately 8.8 billion yuan and 17.1 billion yuan in 2027 and 2028, respectively; by 2030, KeLing's revenue is expected to reach about 39.6 billion yuan. CITIC SEC believes that KeLing is positioned as a new type of infrastructure for video creation in the AGI era and has established a one-stop creative system covering video generation, editing, and workflow. In the future, it is expected to enter multiple professional scenarios such as self-media content production, advertising, short drama, and film and television series. Based on metrics such as the number of global professional content creators, user penetration rates, payment rates, and ARPPU, it is expected that KeLing will have over 60 million global monthly active users by 2030, with the payment rate increasing to 20%. In terms of market potential, the report estimates that by 2030, the AI video generation market size corresponding to four types of scenariosprofessional content creation, advertising design, short dramas, and filmswill reach approximately 45 billion USD. Given the high demands for computing power, data, talent, and technical capabilities in the industry, the AI video generation field is likely to form an oligopolistic structure with differentiated competition among leading firms, rather than a winner takes all scenario. CITIC SEC states that KeLing has already established comprehensive barriers in strategic investment, computing power reserves, video data, core talent, technological iteration, and commercialization. With the closure of the overseas Sora business, the slowdown of Veo iteration, and the growing global interest in KeLing 3.0, KeLing is expected to continue consolidating its leading position and become one of the long-term core oligopolies in the AI video sector. On the operational front, KeLing's quarterly revenue from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026 grew from 150 million yuan to 650 million yuan; as of March 2026, the annualized revenue (ARR) reached 500 million USD, an increase of five times compared to 100 million USD in March 2025. Currently, subscription services account for 60% of KeLing's overall revenue, while enterprise API services make up 40%, with overseas markets contributing 70% of total revenue. The report also points out that there remains untapped synergistic value between KeLing and Kuaishou's main business. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Kuaishou's AIGC advertising expenditure was around 4 billion yuan, with related applications covering scenarios such as AIGC advertising materials, DIGIHUMAN solutions, and marketing tools for small and medium-sized clients. In terms of valuation, CITIC SEC uses a segmented valuation method, giving Kuaishou's main business a 10 times price-earnings ratio, and referencing KeLing's latest post-investment valuation of 18 billion USD, estimating KeLing's contribution to Kuaishou's net valuation to be approximately 105 billion yuan. The institution maintains a "Buy" rating on Kuaishou with a target price of 80 HKD.