In June, the number of job openings in the U.S. fell to 7.36 million, below expectations, while the increase in hiring highlighted that the labor market remains resilient.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, indicating that the number of job vacancies in the U.S. fell in June, below market expectations. However, hiring increased, and layoffs remained low, demonstrating that the overall U.S. labor market remains stable. Although employment demand has cooled somewhat, there has not yet been a significant deterioration. The data shows that the number of job vacancies in the U.S. decreased to 7.359 million in June, down 178,000 from the revised 7.537 million in May, and below the median forecast of 7.45 million from economists. The job vacancy rate fell from 4.5% in May to 4.4%. From an industry perspective, the decline in job vacancies was primarily concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, wholesale trade, and business services. Notably, job vacancies in the healthcare and social assistance sector fell by 147,000, which was the main drag on the overall decline. However, hiring activity showed improvement. The data indicated that the number of hires increased by 96,000 to 5.348 million in June, with the hiring rate rising from 3.3% to 3.4%. The growth in hiring was primarily driven by healthcare and construction, while hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector fell for the third consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since early 2025, which weakened previous market expectations regarding employment demand in related industries driven by the FIFA World Cup. At the same time, layoffs remained stable. The number of layoffs and discharges in June was essentially unchanged at 1.766 million, with the layoff rate holding steady at a low of 1.1%, reflecting that companies generally still prefer to retain their current employees. Analysts believe that this JOLTS report once again reinforces that the U.S. job market is in a state of "slow hiring and slow layoffs." While companies are being cautious in expanding hiring, consumer spending remains resilient, continuing to support demand for labor, and the low levels of layoffs also indicate that the labor market has not shown significant weakness. This will keep the Federal Reserve focused on controlling inflation. Last week, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive time; however, three officials from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike, highlighting internal concerns about rising inflation risks. Nonetheless, some economists caution about interpreting JOLTS data carefully due to a significant decline in the response rate to the survey in recent years, which may affect the representativeness of the data. The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for July, scheduled for release this Friday. According to a Reuters survey, economists expect the U.S. to add around 80,000 non-farm jobs in July, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. However, there is a slight risk of an increase in the unemployment rate. A previous survey by the World Confederation of Businesses showed that the percentage of consumers who believe there are "plenty of job opportunities" fell to its lowest level since February 2021, indicating a cooling in the labor market's conditions.