CXMT’s Pre-IPO Crypto Valuation Sparks Scrutiny Ahead of Record Shanghai Listing

Crypto traders are assigning ChangXin Memory Technologies a valuation that would make it the most valuable company listed in mainland China, just days before the chipmaker’s scheduled debut on Shanghai’s STAR Market.

A perpetual futures contract linked to CXMT was trading near $6.35 per share on decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid on Thursday, after recently reaching $8.60. At the latest price, the contract implies a market capitalization of approximately $425 billion, or 2.9 trillion yuan.

That valuation would place CXMT above Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, currently the mainland’s largest listed company with a market value of about 2.56 trillion yuan. It is also significantly higher than the chipmaker’s official IPO valuation.

CXMT’s offer price was set at 8.66 yuan, or around $1.28 per share, valuing the company at approximately 579 billion yuan at listing. Even at that level, the transaction would be the largest initial public offering in the history of Shanghai’s technology-focused STAR Market.

The company is expected to raise as much as $8.6 billion, making it Asia’s largest IPO of the year. As the world’s fourth-largest producer of DRAM memory chips, CXMT is entering the public markets during a strong industry cycle supported by AI-driven demand and a global shortage of memory supply.

The large gap between the official offer price and the crypto-linked valuation has been driven partly by investors who cannot directly participate in the Shanghai listing. Foreign investors have limited access to the transaction, while mainland retail investors must meet strict requirements to trade on the STAR Market, including maintaining a 500,000 yuan account balance and having at least two years of trading experience.

As a result, offshore traders have turned to crypto-based derivatives to gain synthetic exposure to CXMT before its public debut. Hyperliquid’s perpetual contracts allow investors to speculate on the prices of assets without owning the underlying securities.

Analysts cautioned that the contract should be viewed more as an indicator of demand than as a reliable estimate of CXMT’s fundamental value. Eric Chen, co-founder and CEO of Injective Labs, said the market was effectively forecasting where CXMT shares could begin trading rather than conducting a conventional valuation exercise.

The limited availability of shares, restricted access for global investors and the lack of liquid opportunities to short the stock mean the contract is largely influenced by the most optimistic participants. A relatively small amount of capital may therefore be responsible for producing the headline valuation.

Crypto platforms have increasingly become informal markets for assets that are difficult to access through traditional exchanges, including private companies, pre-IPO stocks and securities listed in restricted markets. However, the accuracy of these synthetic markets has varied.

Some contracts have closely tracked eventual public market prices. A Hyperliquid contract linked to Cerebras Systems settled within roughly 1.3% of the company’s Nasdaq opening price. By contrast, a SpaceX-linked contract traded about 20% above its fixed IPO price before the company’s debut, although the premium remained far smaller than the one currently attached to CXMT.

The trading activity has also brought renewed attention to Hyperliquid itself. Singapore’s financial regulator added the platform to its Investor Alert List in June, indicating that it is not licensed or authorized in the city-state. Hyperliquid said the notice was neither a ban nor an enforcement action and that it had never claimed to be regulated by the authority.

The platform has also faced criticism over its claim that it is permissionless. Critics have pointed to its closed-source code and concentrated validator structure as reasons to question how decentralized its architecture is.

Once CXMT begins trading in Shanghai, the perpetual contract is expected to re-anchor to the listed share price. Any substantial gap could close rapidly, particularly if the official opening price is below the crypto-implied level. However, continued access restrictions could allow a smaller premium to remain as offshore investors seek exposure outside Shanghai trading hours.

The CXMT contract therefore represents more than a speculative bet on one company. It illustrates how crypto markets are increasingly filling gaps created by restricted access to traditional financial assets, while also showing the risks of relying on thin, sentiment-driven markets for price discovery.