EB Securities: Express delivery unit price continued to increase positively in June, with industry parcel volume operating steadily.

EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that the strength and sustainability of the industry's "anti-inner spiraling" efforts in 2026 are expected to exceed expectations, effectively alleviating industry competition pressure, prompting industry price levels to gradually rise, and future profitability is also expected to continue to recover. In the context of the industry's downward trend in growth caused by high operating costs in e-commerce and other factors, it continues to be optimistic about the continued optimization of business structure, the construction of differentiated competitive barriers, and the rapid growth of overseas business in the leading express delivery companies. The main points of EB SECURITIES are as follows: In June, the year-on-year growth rate of industry volume increased steadily, and e-commerce express delivery growth was considerable 1) Industry as a whole: In June 2026, the total volume of express delivery companies nationwide was 17.51 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of +3.76%; From January to June 2026, the volume was 100.38 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. The industry believes that online e-commerce consumption remains active, stabilizing the growth rate base of shipments, coupled with the "national subsidies" policy driving the smooth operation of the consumer market, and the continued expansion of down-market markets such as rural areas, factors that lead to a steady increase in the volume of express deliveries. 2) E-commerce express delivery: The year-on-year growth rates of each company's shipments in June were not significantly different from those in May, with YTO decreasing from +10.60% in May to +8.60%, Yunda increasing from -0.52% to -0.05%, and Shentong decreasing from +18.77% to +18.59%. 3) Direct express delivery: The year-on-year growth rate of Shunfeng's business volume fell from -4.20% to -4.86%. Industry unit price steadily increased, with the intensity and sustainability of express delivery "anti-inner spiraling" exceeding expectations 1) Industry as a whole: In June 2026, the revenue of the express delivery industry increased by +7.7% year-on-year, and the unit revenue increased by +3.76% year-on-year. The industry believes that there are two driving factors for the sustained increase in prices: one is the strong sustainability of the boosting effect of the industry's "anti-inner spiraling"; the other is the fierce price competition last year has pressed prices to a low point, laying the foundation for this year's continued increase in unit price. 2) E-commerce express delivery: The unit revenue of YTO/Yunda/Shentong in June 2026 increased by -1.90%/+10.47%/+6.03% year-on-year, and the unit revenue from January to June increased by -0.95% /+9.54%/+12.15% year-on-year. 3) Direct express delivery: The unit revenue of Shunfeng in June increased by +5.41% year-on-year, and the unit revenue from January to June increased by +3.30% year-on-year. Shunfeng's shipment structure continued to be optimized, and the unit price turned from negative to positive year-on-year. The effect of the "increment plan" gradually manifested. Industry concentration has slightly slowed down, and the market share of top companies in Q2 2026 is relatively stable From early 2022 to the end of 2024, due to relatively moderate price competition under policy regulation, the concentration of market share towards the top slowed down. 1) Industry as a whole: From January to June 2026, the CR8 of the express delivery industry was 87.0, a year-on-year increase of 0.1. Since January 2025, the CR8 of the express delivery industry has continued to show a positive growth trend year-on-year, reflecting the continuous increase in market share of top companies. 2) E-commerce express delivery: The market share of YTO/Yunda/Shentong/Jitu in Q2 2026 (calculated by volume) was 16.4%/12.4% /14.6%/11.8%, with changes of +0.39pct /+0.47pct /+0.63pct /+0.47pct compared to Q1 2026, and the market share of top express delivery companies in Q2 2026 was relatively stable. In November and December 2025, Shentong merged with Daniao Logistics, a top provider of quality express delivery and reverse logistics services in China, directly expanding Shentong's business map. 3) Direct express delivery: Shunfeng's market share in Q2 2026 reached 7.79%, with a change of +0.01pct compared to Q1 2026. Risk analysis: Economic fluctuations, industry policy changes, irrational competition, and fluctuation in oil prices.