Oil prices break $100 barrier! Houthi rebels open up "Red Sea battlefield", Trump considers "larger scale war", and Ukraine adds fuel to the fire.

International oil prices have once again surpassed $100 per barrel after two months, with three major supply shocks simultanously fermenting, pushing the global energy market to a new dangerous edge. Brent crude oil rose above $100 in Thursday's session, reaching this key psychological level for the first time in two months, with the potential for the largest monthly increase since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March this year. Murban crude oil futures produced in Abu Dhabi surged to $108. The catalyst for this rapid rise was the Houthi rebels' announcement of attacks on Saudi oil tankers, threatening to block the Mandeb Strait and turn the Red Sea shipping route into a new conflict zone. Meanwhile, according to Xinhua News Agency citing U.S. media reports, President Trump is "close" to deciding whether to launch an "unprecedented scale" of "large-scale attack" against Iran. The ongoing drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian refinery facilities constitute a third pressure, further exacerbating global refined oil supplies. Market analysts warn that if the Hormuz Strait remains blocked, and the Mandeb Strait is truly closed, there is a risk of oil prices further climbing to $120 or even higher. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official, stated, "The scale of the second military conflict will exceed the first round, posing great risks to shipping and energy infrastructure." Houthi rebels open the "Red Sea battlefield," Mandeb Strait under threat The Houthi rebels announced this week that they had carried out attacks on Saudi oil tankers, officially turning the Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea into a new conflict front, leaving the global oil supply facing a dilemma. According to CCTV news, the Houthi rebels released a statement on the 23rd, saying in response to what they called Saudi Arabia's blockade on Yemen and implementing their principle of "blocking in response to blockage," the Houthi rebels launched military attacks on two Saudi oil tankers. According to Saudi officials on the 23rd, the Saudi Arabian tanker "Enseria" was attacked while sailing in the Red Sea, causing a fire at the bow of the ship, with all crew members safe. Media reports state that Saudi Arabia then diverted oil exports through a pipeline from the Abqaiq refinery to the port of Yanbu on the west coast of the Red Sea, sending around 75% of its regular exports through the Red Sea to the market. Rystad Energy's ship tracking data shows that currently, around 2.5 million barrels of oil per day from Yanbu are being transported south through the Mandeb Strait to distant markets like India. The threats from the Houthi rebels have already had a substantial impact on the market. According to maritime intelligence company Windward data, at least five oil tankers related to Saudi Arabia turned back after the Houthi blockade threat escalated, with four carrying Saudi crude oil; another oil tanker en route to China turned back after leaving Yanbu port. In addition, three oil tankers shut down their automatic identification systems after the threat escalated. Saxo Bank pointed out in a research report that the above attacks led to "more ships avoiding the Mandeb Strait, creating what analysts describe as an 'oil 'double throat' problem," and brought about "a new round of risk premium for crude oil, as well as a renewed focus on inflation in the market." Jorge Len, director of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, stated, "If a ceasefire is not achieved, the Hormuz Strait remains mostly closed, and the Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping further intensify, the risk of a sharp rebound in oil prices will be considerable." The Mandeb Strait is a narrow waterway connecting the Arabian Peninsula with the Horn of Africa, through which around 4.1 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil were transported daily last year, accounting for about 5% of the global total. However, since the end of February, when tensions rose between the U.S. and Iran and the Hormuz Strait was blocked, the strategic importance of the Mandeb Strait has risen sharply. Trump considers "unprecedented" massive strike, risks of U.S.-Iran conflict escalation soar The military standoff between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, with President Trump publicly stating that he is "close" to making a decision to launch a massive attack against Iran, raising concerns in the market about the full escalation of the conflict. According to reports from Xinhua News Agency citing Axios, President Trump said in an interview that he is "seriously considering" restarting large-scale military operations against Iran, with the scale of the action potentially exceeding the "epic fury" military action against Iran in late February this year. Trump stated, "I am considering launching a large-scale attack, the scale of which will be unprecedented. I am close to making a decision, and we are prepared for it." He also stated that the U.S. military is "fully prepared," that Iran "wants to negotiate but is not ready to reach an agreement," and that "they have not suffered enough." According to Xinhua News Agency, Iran has taken corresponding preparations for possible expanded strikes by the U.S. A source from the Iranian military told Russian media, "The Iranian armed forces have prepared various countermeasures against any new attack by the United States, especially if the U.S. government makes a mistake by launching a ground invasion." If the U.S. strikes Iranian nuclear facilities or infrastructure again, Iran's response will exceed U.S. expectations. Ukraine drone strikes devastate Russian refinery capacity, refined oil supplies in crisis Beyond the Middle East situation, the ongoing drone strikes by Ukraine on Russian refinery facilities represent a third DRIVE for the rise in oil prices, further increasing pressure on global refined oil supplies. According to reports, Goldman Sachs pointed out that global diesel supplies continue to be under pressure, partly due to the market's high exposure to risks of interruptions in Middle Eastern refining capacity, especially the recent Ukrainian drone attacks that have reduced Russian refinery capacity by 80%. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, warned this week that many refineries have cut fuel production due to soaring crude oil costs, leading to even greater tightness in the supply of transportation fuels, including diesel. He stated, "The recovery of refining activities and product supply lags far behind crude oil delivery volumes, which means that the refined oil market, including diesel and gasoline, is much tighter than the crude oil market." $100 oil prices trigger inflation alarms, political pressure mounts on Trump Analysts have pointed out that Brent crude oil breaking through the key psychological level of $100 has begun to transmit to a broader economic level, forming political pressure on the Trump administration. The spot price of Brent also broke through $100, with near-month spreads showing a strong futures premium of over $6 per barrel, indicating that market concerns about recent supply tightness far exceed normal levels - during normal periods, this spread is only a few cents. At the same time, at least one type of Middle Eastern crude oil grade spread has nearly doubled in the past two trading days. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, stated, "The market focus is now on how Saudi Arabia will respond. Although oil tankers can go around the Suez Canal, this is a less efficient solution, requiring smaller ships and longer journeys." Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, warned, "If oil prices stay in the $90 to $120 range by the end of summer, it will be a time when we see a greater impact on consumer spending, as wage growth cannot keep up with such price increases." Currently, U.S. retail diesel prices have exceeded $5 per gallon, and further increases in oil prices will bring additional pressure to businesses and consumers. Market observers believe that oil prices exceeding $100 will significantly increase political pressure on Trump to end the war and contain the soaring energy costs. If oil prices remain high by the end of summer, the resurgence of inflation expectations will complicate the policy path for the Federal Reserve, increasing the probability of interest rate hikes.