Barclays declares that the "golden age" of technology IPO has arrived: Rare overlapping cycles of AI innovation in multiple fields, with market reception exceeding the peak of the 2021 listing boom.

The global technology IPO market is at a historic turning point. Jamie Turturici, Head of Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) Capital Markets at Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR, referred to the current technology industry IPO market as a "golden age" during an interview on Wednesday, stating that he had "never seen so many innovation cycles happening simultaneously" in his career. This assessment comes as news emerges of Moonshot AI, a Chinese AI unicorn, aiming for a Pre-IPO financing round with a valuation of $50 billion. Despite the lingering shadow of SpaceX's stock price halving after going public, the capital market's expectations for a new wave of technology IPOs are surpassing short-term fluctuations. Barclays' "golden age" assertion: resonating six innovation cycles Turturici pointed out that the current group of technology companies heading towards the public market goes beyond just the core field of artificial intelligence, including sectors such as power infrastructure, data centers, Siasun Robot & Automation, automation, defense technology, and space among six major categories. He described the current stage as approximately the third year in a typical IPO cycle of 5 to 6 years. Barclays' pipeline of key listed projects is at its highest level in over six years, likely exceeding last year's 16 tech company IPOs. This pipeline size echoes the explosive growth of the global IPO market in the first half of the year. EY data shows that global IPO fundraising reached $193.6 billion in the first half of 2026, a 210% increase year-on-year. Although the number of IPOs decreased by 7% to 509, with SpaceX's $86.3 billion fundraising making it the largest IPO in history, accounting for 45% of the total fundraising in the first half of the year. Market receptivity: $165 trillion market capitalization and $8.3 trillion idle funds Turturici believes that concerns about the market's ability to absorb the surge in supply are exaggerated. His confidence in market receptivity is based on three core data points. Firstly, global stock market capitalization has reached $165 trillion, a 40% increase from the peak of $120 trillion in 2021. Secondly, average daily trading volumes are 140% higher than in 2021. Thirdly, idle funds in money market funds have reached $8.3 trillion, up from $5 trillion in 2021. These data constitute the core basis of his optimistic assessment of market receptivity. These numbers indicate that even if a batch of super unicorns like OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, and Stripe go public simultaneously, the market's depth and liquidity are sufficient to digest them. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. had previously predicted that US IPO fundraising in 2026 would reach a record $160 billion, more than three times the approximately $48 billion in 2025. From China to the US: AI unicorns lining up for entry While Barclays boldly declared the "golden age," the most aggressive expansion sample of capital in the Chinese AI large model track is emerging. It is reported that Moonshot AI plans to launch a final financing round in Hong Kong in August with a target pre-IPO valuation of up to $50 billion, aiming to debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange within the next six months. Founded in April 2023, this AI company affiliated with Tsinghua University has achieved a remarkable surge in valuation from $300 million in angel round funding to $50 billion in Pre-IPO funding in less than three and a half years. 2026 has been a year of rapid capital expansion for Moonshot AI: completing three rounds of financing in January and February (totaling $500 million and $700 million, respectively), with its valuation climbing from $10 billion to $18 billion; completing a Series D round of approximately $2 billion in May, reaching a valuation of $20 billion. Since the beginning of the year, the company has raised over $3.9 billion, with a total financing amount exceeding 37.6 billion RMB, becoming the AI giant with the highest cumulative financing among Chinese large model startups. The direct catalyst for this capital frenzy is Kimi K3, an open-source weight model with 28 trillion parameters, referred to by the company as one of the largest open-source models in the world. The release of K3 caused a stir on Wall Street, with Morgan Stanley analyst Gary Yu calling it a signal that "Chinese large models are catching up with American leaders." Bernstein analyst Robin Zhu directly called it a "home run." On the commercial front, Moonshot AI's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) exceeded $100 million in the first quarter of 2026, surpassed $200 million in May, and further exceeded $300 million in June. In North America, Anthropic is actively preparing for an IPO, having appointed Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., and JPMorgan Chase as lead underwriters, with the possibility of completing the IPO as early as October this year. The company's valuation has risen to $96.5 billion after completing a financing round in May, surpassing OpenAI for the first time. OpenAI has pushed back its IPO timetable to 2027 from the original plan. It is estimated that the total value of AI company IPO reserves, including OpenAI and Anthropic, has reached approximately $3.6 trillion. In terms of valuation comparison, Moonshot AI's target of $50 billion is in a delicate position - OpenAI's latest valuation is approximately $300 billion and Anthropic's is around $61.5 billion. Considering the political risks of GEO Group Inc and restrictions on chip acquisition, this valuation reflects a specific discount for Chinese AI companies. SpaceX Shadow: Warning of the "busted" IPO of the largest IPO However, the "golden age" is not without its shadows. SpaceX (SPCX.US) went public at a price of $135 in June, raising $86.3 billion, setting a historical record. On the first day of trading, it closed at $160.95, then surged to $225.64 as retail investors poured in. However, as of July 22, the stock price had fallen to $115.26, a drop of about 15% from the IPO price and about 50% from the high point, resulting in an evaporation of over $1.2 trillion from the peak market value. SpaceX's decline exposed the risks of an AI concept stock valuation bubble. The company's revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was $4.694 billion, with a net loss of $4.276 billion. Falling below the IPO price within a month sent a chilling sign to the new listing market. Turturici is not concerned about this. He believes that the recent underperformance of new tech stocks, especially SpaceX, is not the main issue - most large IPOs are unlikely to take place before September, allowing the industry time to recover. Demand from investors for high-quality private companies remains strong enough to offset short-term fluctuations. Turturici believes that the recent underperformance of new tech stocks, especially SpaceX, is not the main issue. He pointed out that most large IPOs are unlikely to take place before September, which should give the industry time to recover. The demand from investors for high-quality private companies remains strong enough to compensate for short-term fluctuations. S3 Partners data show that short positions in SpaceX have surged to about $25 billion, accounting for 29% of the float. In addition, after the second-quarter report on August 4, the first batch of unlocked shares of SpaceX (up to 911.5 million shares) will enter the market, equivalent to 1.4 times the IPO float. However, historical experience shows that even after Meta's IPO plummeted nearly 50% in 2012, it eventually returned to above the issue price after 14 months. Industry differentiation: the "AI dividend" of software stocks and the comprehensive flowering of the hardware track While AI hardware and infrastructure companies dominate the IPO wave, Turturici also pointed out that software companies still have opportunities - as long as they can prove that they benefit from AI performance and have a solid competitive advantage. Following the sell-off of software stocks in April due to concerns about the threat of AI, investors are paying closer attention to the specific areas within the industry. Network security and infrastructure software companies are gaining good momentum from AI. "Now you're really starting to see investors look closely at this trend," Turturici said, "If you're a network security company or an infrastructure software company, you could actually get good momentum from AI." This judgment implies that companies in the software sector that can prove they benefit from AI performance and have a solid competitive advantage will still be favored by capital in the IPO wave. Barclays investment bankers reported that demand from buyers for public technology issues has reached a multi-year high. This demand is not only coming from the AI track but is also widespread in sectors such as power infrastructure, data centers, Siasun Robot & Automation, automation, and defense technology. EY's report also confirms this trend - IPO reserves are increasingly defined by AI and hard technology (semiconductors, data centers, Siasun Robot & Automation, advanced manufacturing).