Copilot seat is expected to exceed 30 million? French banks are bullish on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) Q4: Revenue and capital expenditures may face "double acceleration"

French bank BNP Paribas released a research report stating that Microsoft Corporation's fourth quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings report and outlook are expected to be a share price catalyst - revenue growth will accelerate, but capital expenditure guidance may also be raised simultaneously. BNP analyst Stefan Slowinski stated in the report, "We expect Azure's growth rate in the fourth quarter to be 41% (market consensus is around 40%), and the number of Copilot seats will continue to accelerate. Considering that the fourth quarter is usually the peak season for seasonal bookings (M365 commercial cloud is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year using fixed exchange rates), new seats this quarter are expected to reach 7 to 8 million, and optimistically may even exceed 30 million." He further pointed out, "For the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, we expect Azure growth rate guidance to be 40% to 41% (market consensus is 40.6%), and M365 commercial cloud growth guidance to be 15% to 16% (if Copilot seats exceed 30 million, it may reach 17% calculated using fixed exchange rates)." For the entire fiscal year 2027, BNP estimates Microsoft Corporation's revenue growth to be 18%, higher than the market consensus of 16.8%, which is expected to be a catalyst for the share price increase. In addition, BNP has raised Microsoft Corporation's 2027 fiscal year capital expenditure forecast by 15% to $262 billion, mainly due to ongoing inflation of components. The bank maintains a "outperform the market" rating for Microsoft Corporation, but has slightly lowered the target price from $555 to $549. Microsoft Corporation plans to release its fourth quarter fiscal year 2026 results after the market on July 29. Market consensus expects adjusted earnings per share to be $4.24, with revenue of $87.67 billion. In the same period of fiscal year 2025, Microsoft Corporation had earnings per share of $3.65 and revenue of $76.44 billion. Microsoft Corporation had previously given guidance for fourth quarter Azure growth at fixed exchange rates to be 39% to 40%. While BNP's forecast of 41% is only slightly higher than the market consensus of 40%, it is significant - it indicates that Azure's growth rate, after stabilizing around 40% for several consecutive quarters, may increase slightly. Multiple institutions hold similar optimistic expectations. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. reports that fourth quarter Azure year-on-year growth at fixed exchange rates is expected to reach 40% to 41%, and the guidance for the next quarter may also remain in this range. HSBC Research predicts Azure growth of around 39.6%. The commercialization progress of Copilot is another major suspense in this financial report. BNP expects that the number of new Copilot seats this quarter could reach 7 to 8 million, and optimistically may even exceed 30 million. Previously, BNP had forecasted that Copilot seats could exceed 25 million by the end of the fiscal year 2026. According to public data, Microsoft Corporation's M365 Copilot paid enterprise seats had already exceeded 20 million in April, with a 160% year-on-year increase in seats, and user weekly activity has been on par with Outlook. Slowinski stated that user sentiment for Copilot has significantly improved, participation in Excel, PowerPoint, and Word continues to rise, and Microsoft Corporation has recently emphasized stronger monthly engagement and retention metrics. Preview products like Copilot Cowork have received positive feedback, indicating that Microsoft Corporation is effectively addressing AI pressure from competitors like Anthropic. It is worth noting that Microsoft Corporation CFO Amy Hood explicitly stated during the third quarter call that the growth in Copilot seats will "accelerate again" in the fourth quarter. This means that management also has strong confidence in the commercialization prospects of Copilot. For investors, the number of Copilot seats is a key indicator to test the enterprise AI penetration - if it exceeds 30 million, it means that enterprise AI adoption is accelerating; if it is less than 20 million, it may raise concerns about the commercialization speed.