The conflict between the US and Iran has once again sparked the oil market: Brent crude rose nearly 16% in the week, and the risk of closing the Strait of Hormuz triggered a frenzy of "risk premiums."

Notice that, due to the escalation of conflicts between the United States and Iran, concerns have been raised in the market about the possibility of high energy prices maintaining high inflation and increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Crude oil and refined oil futures surged on Friday and closed significantly higher for the week. On Friday, Kuwait stated that Iran had attacked civilian infrastructure including power and desalination plants, representing a significant escalation of the conflict in the region. Iran also claimed to have carried out attacks on U.S. targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, as well as conducting its first direct attack on Syria. The U.S. announced that after reimposing a naval blockade on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports, American forces attacked several bridges within Iran to disrupt supply routes to a strategic port and naval base near the Hormuz Strait. Further exacerbating concerns about escalating conflicts, Houthi rebels in Yemen may take action to block shipping through the Red Sea via the Mandeb Strait, as Saudi Arabia has been redirecting oil exports through that strait due to the closure of the Hormuz Strait. According to Reuters, since the start of the war, Saudi Arabia has been redirecting more than 70% of its daily normal crude oil exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with recent shipments from Yanbu averaging 4 million barrels per day, surpassing the previous year's average of 973,000 barrels per day. Barclays Bank analyst Amarpreet Singh stated in a report that the re-escalation of the situation "poses significant upside risks to energy prices with inventories at near multi-year lows and most strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases already past. As of the current situation, we believe the market remains overly optimistic (complacent) about the potential impact of inventories." On Friday, NYMEX August delivery front-month crude oil futures surged by 4.5% to $82.49 per barrel, while ICE September delivery front-month Brent crude oil futures jumped by 4.6% to $88.10 per barrel. For the week as a whole, NYMEX crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures rose by 15.5% and 15.9% respectively, marking the largest weekly gains for both benchmark crude oils since late April. Since the disruption of Persian Gulf supplies due to the conflict, gasoline prices have even outpaced crude oil prices due to low inventories. RBOB gasoline futures closed at $3.3927 per gallon on Friday, reaching the highest level since May 22nd, while diesel futures surged more than 14% this week, with the national average retail price rising above $5 per gallon. In addition to concerns about the interruption of supplies through the Hormuz Strait, tight supply during the peak summer travel season in the northern hemisphere has also supported gasoline and diesel prices. According to Novi Labs data, the gasoline crack spread, which measures the difference between gasoline and crude oil prices, averaged $0.90 per gallon this month, reaching the highest level in four years. NYMEX August delivery front-month natural gas futures rose by 1.8% on Friday to $2.9110 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), falling by 1% for the week.