Hong Kong's third quarter business outlook survey: 10% expecting improvement, 14% expecting deterioration.

On July 17th, the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department released the results of the Business Outlook Survey for the third quarter of 2026. The survey indicated that 10% of respondents expected an improvement in business conditions in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter, slightly down from 11% in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the percentage of respondents expecting a deterioration in business conditions decreased from 16% in the second quarter to 14% in the third quarter. When divided by industry, more respondents in the transportation, warehousing and courier services, real estate, and professional and commercial services sectors expected worse business conditions compared to the previous quarter. Specifically, respondents in the transportation, warehousing, and courier services sector also anticipated a decrease in business volume compared to the second quarter. In the finance and insurance sector, more respondents expected an improvement in business conditions than those expecting a deterioration. In the manufacturing sector, overall respondents anticipated an increase in production volume in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. In terms of employment, most industry respondents expected the number of employees in the third quarter to remain roughly the same as in the second quarter. In the information and communication sector, more respondents anticipated a decrease in the number of employees than an increase. On the price front, most industries expected prices of goods or services to remain roughly the same as in the previous quarter. In the construction industry, a significant number of respondents expected bidding prices in the third quarter to decrease compared to the second quarter. A government spokesperson stated that the overall short-term business outlook for large enterprises in the third quarter of 2026 had slightly improved, with recruitment intentions stabilizing. Looking ahead, the spokesperson pointed out that the continued expansion of the Hong Kong economy should continue to boost the local business environment, but the external environment remains unpredictable. Recent tensions in the Middle East are escalating, and the government will continue to closely monitor developments and their potential impact on the business environment. The survey covered around 570 large-scale companies in Hong Kong's ten major industries, with interviews conducted from June 1st to July 6th, 2026. The survey results are presented as a "net balance," where positive numbers indicate an upward trend and negative numbers indicate a downward trend. The government cautioned that due to the limited sample size, results with low percentages in individual industries should be interpreted carefully.