Blue Moon (06993) Interim Performance Forecast Interpretation: Loss Reduction by Over 50% Validates Strategic Effectiveness, Operational Turning Point Established.

On July 15, 2026, BLUE MOON GROUP (06993) released a mid-year performance forecast, expecting the net loss in the first half of the year to narrow by no less than 55% compared to the same period last year. With the company having significantly reduced its losses by 56.1% to approximately 329 million Hong Kong dollars in the full year of 2025, the improving trend is continuing. This is a key signal that Blue Moon is sending to the market. Starting from this performance forecast, the company is going through an important operational turning point. The results of strategic investments are beginning to emerge The continuous investments made in the past two years in the self-broadcast matrix, knowledge marketing system, and channel structure are gradually translating into verifiable operational efficiency. In 2024, Blue Moon accurately seized the trend of live e-commerce, deeply cooperating with top-tier influencers, rapidly completed user reach and brand awareness penetration through new channels, becoming a benchmark case in the industry, and achieving significant results in igniting new product volumes. Building upon this, in 2025, the company entered a strategic upgrade phase - leveraging the traffic operation experience accumulated from influencer live broadcasts to systematically transform into the construction of a self-broadcast matrix, the establishment of a knowledge marketing system, and the penetration of offline distribution networks, creating a more valuable long-term omni-channel operational capability. Cost structure optimization and core competency development are progressing simultaneously, channel operational capabilities are continuously improving, and efficiency is gradually being released. Data is validating this logic. Total sales and distribution expenses for the full year of 2025 decreased by 11.5% year-on-year to 4.468 billion Hong Kong dollars, while the self-broadcast matrix gradually took shape, the knowledge marketing IP "The Amazing Future Laundry Technology" garnered over 1.8 billion exposures in the first half of 2025, and revenue from offline distributors grew by 15% year-on-year. Although the total amount of resource investment has been adjusted, the flow is more precise, the structure is more optimized, and overall utilization efficiency is continuously improving. In terms of channel strategy, Blue Moon has essentially completed a significant structural transformation: transitioning from new platform development and layout in 2024 to comprehensive deep cultivation and diversified channel collaboration in 2025, while advancing the construction of the self-broadcast matrix, the penetration of the offline distribution network, and deep cooperation with platforms such as Douyin, Tmall, and JD.com, the company is gradually establishing a linked omni-channel operational system. Online, a closed loop is formed through "content seeding - shelf acceptance - instant conversion," and offline, market penetration continues through the expansion of terminal stores and resource optimization. During the 618 promotion period, several core product categories maintained top sales on major e-commerce platforms. This system is still in operation, and marginal costs are decreasing. Profitability may be achieved in the second half of the year, continuing Blue Moon's long-term rhythm If only looking at single-period data, it may be difficult to understand the true signal of this forecast. By extending the timeline, Blue Moon's operations show a clear rhythm: the first half of the year is an investment period, and the second half of the year is a harvest period. In 2022 and 2023, the operational results in the second half of the year were significantly better than the first half, maintaining profitability for the full year. In 2024, despite industry pressures, revenue in the second half of the year still grew by about 17.5% compared to the first half. This rhythm was once again confirmed in 2025, where the operational results in the second half of the year significantly improved compared to the first half, leading to a substantial reduction in losses for the full year. Based on this rhythm, the improving trend in the second half of 2026 is expected to continue, with potential for further improvement in the full-year performance. Maintaining the top market share, the moat remains intact The sustainability of performance improvement ultimately depends on the strength of the company's moat. The moat should not be a static defense line, but a river that is continuously expanding, safeguarding the base while continuously growing new boundaries. Market share is one of the most direct indicators of brand moat strength. According to statistics from the China National Business Information Center, Blue Moon Laundry Detergent has ranked first in the market share of similar products for 17 consecutive years, since the category was first included in statistics in 2009. According to the 2026 China Brand Power Index released by Chnbrand, Blue Moon Laundry Detergent and Hand Soap have consecutively ranked first in their respective category for 16 years. The "Blue Moon" and "Supreme" trademarks both received the AAA rating from the China Trademark Association, the only company in the industry to receive this honor. Several sets of data point to the same conclusion - even in the most fiercely competitive period in the industry, Blue Moon's base has remained solid. Accumulation on the product side is also worth noting. The Supreme series is the core product of Blue Moon's "concentration+" strategy, with a cumulative satisfaction rate of over 98% since its launch. At the same time, the expansion of functional laundry detergents such as lingerie-specific, antibacterial and deodorizing, and sports types, as well as the continuous growth of the CleanEnjoy series in the personal care sector, are extending the company's technological capabilities from laundry detergents to broader home cleaning scenarios, gradually reducing dependence on a single category. Personal care products are becoming an incrementally important category to watch. Revenue for the full year of 2025 increased by 12.8% year-on-year to 578 million Hong Kong dollars, with a growth rate of 12.4% in the first half of the year, making it the fastest-growing segment among the three major business sectors. With continued new product launches and gradual increases in category penetration rates, personal care is moving from "fast-growing" to "sustainable," becoming an important growth driver for the company in the future. Institutional analysis predicts the opening of the profitability recovery channel The improvement in fundamentals has been noticed by professional institutions. Recently, Guotai Haitong initiated coverage on Blue Moon for the first time, giving it a "buy" rating with a target price of 3.63 Hong Kong dollars. The report notes that Blue Moon is an absolute leader in the daily chemical cleaning sector and expects the company to enter a profitability recovery channel from 2026 to 2028, with net profit gradually increasing from 40 million Hong Kong dollars to 320 million Hong Kong dollars and 410 million Hong Kong dollars. This judgment is based on the fact that the market size of the Chinese home cleaning and care industry has grown from 117.2 billion yuan in 2019 to 150.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.1%, highlighting the resilience of essential goods in fluctuating consumption environments. Under the current industry landscape, the combined market share of top companies such as Blue Moon exceeds 40%, with concentration continuing to increase. As operational improvements in 2025 and the continued development of omni-channel linkage drive towards higher concentration in the industry, there is still room for top companies to expand their market share and pricing power. As a core target in the industry, Blue Moon will leverage its significant competitive advantage in the new wave of structural change. From optimizing cost structures to rebuilding channel models, from the formation of the self-broadcast matrix to omni-channel coordination, Blue Moon, while maintaining strategic investments, is gradually constructing a more efficient growth model. The preliminary layout is entering the harvesting period. Whether this system can support the company's return to sustained profitability, the upcoming performance window will be an important validation point.